What’s better than sleepers? That’s right. More sleepers!!

Last time out we briefly laid out how loose I am with my definition of sleeper before taking a deeper look at two players I think will actualize my said nebulous designation. Tl;dr: I see sleepers as players who have some combination of high-ROI and low-hype. Also, designating sleepers before actionable ADP is available is basically a guessing game. See? Loose.

After choosing a player from Detroit and Kansas City the last time out, we might as well keep this AL Central tour of sadness going. Let’s get things started by taking some big deep breaths, in and out, listening to nothing but the sound of my voice. In and out. Now relax your breath and relax your inner self as we all get very, very sleepy. In-nnn…and out.

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Even though the World Series has just started, sleeper season has arrived for we who laugh haughtily at the idea of an offseason. So, like any good tout, I’m busy preparing for the winter by searching for the players that you’ll wish you would’ve drafted this time next year.

But first, the asterisk. Let’s just skip any philosophical debates about what does or does not constitute a sleeper, as its definition is very user-dependent and can range from very broad (any player, regardless of round/price that you think will return a substantial ROI) to very narrow (the out-of-nowhere player that returns Mullins-esque value).

Let’s just say that I keep my definition pretty loose, looking for players that I think will return big value relative to their price but also ones who I’m confident will, for whatever reason (boring vet, bad team, etc), be easier to acquire. Low Q-rating guys, if you will. Read the rest of this entry »

Stealing bases continue to be less and less of a priority as baseball evolves in its current iteration but regardless, they remain an equal part of the equation in most rotisserie setups. This makes it more important than ever to find extra ways to find speed in the margins.

With 2021 in the books, I wanted to spend some time on stolen bases, so I’ll start with speed trends, both overall and team-by-team. And then finish up today looking at how some of the 2022 free-agent class might be affected by where they end up signing. In the next piece, I’ll move on to if the value of stolen bases in fantasy has changed and whether we should adjust how we draft for them going forward.

Before we get started, though, will everyone please bow their heads in a moment of silence for baseball thievery, as we’ll begin with a reading of the obituary. Read the rest of this entry »

With the fantasy season almost wrapped up, we might as well kick off the gossip about one of the offseason’s most salacious topics. Velo, baby. Who found some, who lost some, and everything in between.

This will all be heavily parsed before the next Opening Day, as changes in fastball velocity can often be reliable indicators for which pitchers are heading in which directions. And for those who like to draft early, velocity changes can serve as an early flag for possible targets or to identify the players that might first need a closer look.

With that in mind, here are the 32 starting pitchers who have increased their average fastball velocity by at least 0.5 mph since 2020 (minimum 200 fastballs in each season). Four-seamers and sinkers are grouped together and numbers are from pitches only thrown as a starting pitcher. Also included are 2019 velocities, as well as the percentile ranks from 2019-2021. Read the rest of this entry »

With only two weeks left in the season, every decision for starting pitchers can be crucial, whether trying to close things out in roto, or surviving another week of the playoffs in point leagues. Your hand is often forced in roto, as categorical needs will often be driving your decisions, and sometimes you can only be so conservative. But in H2H points with a typical playoffs setup, a format for which I have great affection, you can often be a lot more creative with your start/sit decisions, making choices you typically wouldn’t at any other time besides the playoffs.

In most leagues, you’re not only dealing with a limit on starts per week but (depending on your scoring system) the worry of the equalizing effect of a pitcher going negative in any given start. This makes every start choice supremely important, as playoff upsets are often built on the backs of unexpected blowups. And sometimes you need to play defense, playing the opponent as much as the pitcher.

Because there is really nothing worse than strolling happily along through your season before being snatched up by a Dallas Keuchel-shaped beartrap right before the finish line. Crack! No more fantasy season. Read the rest of this entry »

Falling into a rut with your decisions can be deadly as the fantasy season comes to a close, particularly with pitchers and when you choose to start them. Depending on the starter and the team they’re facing, as well as your own categorical needs, matchups that might have been must-starts in July could sit in a gray area in September.

With that in mind, we’re going to take a look at starting pitchers who were in the top-50 for the first half but have fallen out since the break. And instead of just looking at drops in just fantasy categories, we’ll use total value and see where the drops have come and whether you should trust them as we come down the final championship stretch.

A few notes about calculated values:

• As you can’t use date ranges with our auction calculator, I calculated my own values using a standard z-score methodology. One difference is that values were made using only starting pitchers, scored using wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.
• In addition to ERA and WHIP, I’ve also included “xERA” and “xWHIP” but these are not expected values, rather they are the ratios weighted to the number of innings pitched.  A 3.50 ERA over 200 IP is better than a 3.50 ERA over 100 IP and a 2.25 ERA over 120 IP is better than a 2.00 ERA over 90 IP. Basically, xERA and xWHIP put these values on the same scale, allowing us to judge ratios on a 1-to-1 basis, regardless of innings pitched.

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As we come down the fantasy stretch, every matchup you choose starts to matter that much more. Whether it’s knowing who to stream or which stalwart in your rotation should maybe sit one out, it’s best to bring as much recent information to your process as possible.

We already looked at team performances vs RHP, so let’s crossover and look at how teams are faring versus lefthanders, looking at the numbers heading into last night’s action. But first, a quick caveat. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in June, we took a look at which teams to attack with streaming options, as well as who to avoid, according to pitcher handedness. With a scant five weeks remaining in the season (and playoffs starting soon for H2H leagues), knowing which teams to exploit (and which beartraps to step around) becomes even more paramount.

But not just for streaming options, as fantasy players in tight races might need to make some tough decisions on who to start down the stretch. Because when time is running out, every start counts, and pitchers who were “start no matter what” prior, might slide into a more nebulous zone as you try to bring home gold.

You may have spent the previous five months cruising but no one wants to be this guy in September:

He … could … go … all … the … way … oh no. pic.twitter.com/nFucS4tvSG

— MLB (@MLB) August 24, 2021

With that in mind, let’s take a fresh look at the teams you should be going out of your way to face, as well as those teams who’ve improved enough in the second half to make you take a pause.

Damn the torpedoes, full stream ahead. Read the rest of this entry »

With only about six weeks remaining in the regular season and most trade deadlines past, many may be scrounging for stolen bases as we come down the fantasy stretch. Trolling for speed on the wire is always a dicey proposition but even more so than in years past, with teams running less and less, more of a matter of philosophy than necessarily a dearth of talent.

Today, we’re going to look for speed targets according to the quality of the catchers faced, looking at the team whole, as well as the starting parts. ie. How many games will you have a good chance of facing a suspect catcher? Suspect, at least, when it comes to stolen bases and attempts allowed, as well as their rate of catching would-be thieves.

This brings me to my first large caveat: it’s not all the catcher’s fault. Stolen bases can be on the pitcher as much as the catcher but mixing in who is on the mound goes beyond the scope of this piece. When streaming for stolen bases I want my guys to have as many chances as possible of facing a catcher who has been run on a lot and hasn’t been successful at stopping them.

I judged the catchers solely on the results, looking at their percentage of runners caught (as CS%, as well as CS% percentile) and their percentile rank in attempts per nine innings and stolen bases per nine innings. How much are teams running when you’re in the game and how successful are you at stopping them? K.I.S.S. Read the rest of this entry »

Following a 2020 season in which only 40 starting pitchers reached at least 60 IP, the general worries that starters would be limited this year, have yet to be actualized. Granted, they still have two months to do so but my concerns have at least been tamped down on veterans with track records of high usage. However, pitchers with previously middling maxs are still worrying, particularly as more teams drop out of contention, and young starters still carry the same concerns as they do in the second half of any season.

However, whether looking at veterans or rookies, fantasy managers must try to set expectations for their pitching staff as we head into the fantasy dog days. Even if trusting what management says tends to be an exercise in futility. But you need to at least try to have a handle on who you can depend on the rest of the way, if only to curse their names when they do the opposite.

One if by shutdown, two if by bullpen…The limits are coming! The limits are coming! Read the rest of this entry »