Let’s finish things up in dissecting my hitter xHR/FB rate and its components by patrolling for potential sleepers during your 2022 drafts. We’re going straight to the xHR/FB rate underperformers this time and discussing the hitters whose actual HR/FB rates were most below that mark, using a minimum of 30 fly balls and line drives as defined by Statcast. While the higher xHR/FB rate is not a projection, it does suggest the hitter deserved significantly better, and that might not be accounted for in their various forecasts (though, it will be reflected in the Pod Projections, of course, when they are released).

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Last week, I listed and discussed the hitters whose HR/FB rate surges weren’t real. In other words, hitters who enjoyed HR/FB spikes that my xHR/FB rate equation didn’t believe in, or match. Today, we’ll now look at those hitters whose HR/FB rates declines, but their xHR/FB rates were significantly higher, possibly signifying some bad fortune. That could potentially result in these hitters being undervalued, or at least being underprojected for home runs.

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Today, we’re keeping with our dive into hitter xHR/FB rate, but instead of discussing those whose marks validated their actual HR/FB rates, it’s time to reveal what has been fake news. That is, which hitters enjoyed a HR/FB rate surge, but xHR/FB rate wasn’t buying it? Depending on your leaguemates, this group might end up being overvalued on draft day.

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Yesterday, I identified and discussed the hitters whose xHR/FB rates validated their HR/FB rate spikes. Today, let’s flip to the other side and check out the list of hitters whose HR/FB rates fell compared to 2020, and whose xHR/FB rate confirmed those results.

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Let’s finally move past the hitter xHR/FB rate variables and get into the equation’s output. Today, I’ll start by checking in on the hitters whose HR/FB rates spiked in 2021 that were real, meaning actually validated by their xHR/FB rates. In other words, the HR/FB rate surge was accompanied by a similar xHR/FB rate, lending more credence to the jump. A word of caution — just because the xHR/FB rate validated the HR/FB rate does not mean the hitter is going to sustain this new level, but it should certainly give us more confidence that he will than if his xHR/FB rate came up significantly short.

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Two weeks ago, I published a series of posts diving into average distance of fly balls and line drives (ADFBLD). Somehow, I forgot to actually complete the series by discussing the decliners versus 2020. I shared the surgers, so now let’s return to this xHR/FB equation variable by discussing the hitters who lost the most ADFBLD over a minimum of 30 flies + liners in both 2020 and 2021.

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Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters whose pulled fly ball percentage (PFB) increased the most versus 2020. A majority of those hitters also boosted their HR/FB rates, which is no coincidence. Now let’s check out the other side of the coin, those hitters whose PFB declined the most in 2021 compared to 2020. Did their HR/FB rates slide as well? Let’s find out.

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Today, we’re sticking with hitter pull fly ball percentage (PFB) and reviewing those that increased their marks most versus 2020. Often, you will see a hitter start pulling his flies more frequently in an effort to up his power. Let’s see if the increased PFB had that effect for these surgers.

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Yesterday, I discussed the leaders of another variable of my hitter xHR/FB rate equation, pulled fly ball percentage (PFB). Let’s now review the laggards. Rather than look at this list negatively, consider the potential upside here if these hitters decide to become more pull-happy.

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Let’s continue diving into the components of my hitter xHR/FB equation by reviewing the 2021 leaders in Pull FB% (PFB). This is the percentage of a hitter’s fly balls that are pulled. For home runs, the higher the PFB, the better…for the most part (there are always exceptions). Why? In the Statcast era (since 2015), average distance of fly balls by batted ball direction were as follows:

Those are some serious differences solely based on the fly ball’s horizontal direction. Since hitters hit the ball further, on average, when they pull their flies, then a higher rate of pulled flies should typically result in a higher HR/FB rate. So let’s now review the 2021 PFB leaders (minimum 20 fly balls).

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