Today, we’re keeping with our dive into hitter xHR/FB rate, but instead of discussing those whose marks validated their actual HR/FB rates, it’s time to reveal what has been fake news. That is, which hitters enjoyed a HR/FB rate surge, but xHR/FB rate wasn’t buying it? Depending on your leaguemates, this group might end up being overvalued on draft day.
Yesterday, I identified and discussed the hitters whose xHR/FB rates validated their HR/FB rate spikes. Today, let’s flip to the other side and check out the list of hitters whose HR/FB rates fell compared to 2020, and whose xHR/FB rate confirmed those results.
Let’s finally move past the hitter xHR/FB rate variables and get into the equation’s output. Today, I’ll start by checking in on the hitters whose HR/FB rates spiked in 2021 that were real, meaning actually validated by their xHR/FB rates. In other words, the HR/FB rate surge was accompanied by a similar xHR/FB rate, lending more credence to the jump. A word of caution — just because the xHR/FB rate validated the HR/FB rate does not mean the hitter is going to sustain this new level, but it should certainly give us more confidence that he will than if his xHR/FB rate came up significantly short.
Two weeks ago, I published a series of posts diving into average distance of fly balls and line drives (ADFBLD). Somehow, I forgot to actually complete the series by discussing the decliners versus 2020. I shared the surgers, so now let’s return to this xHR/FB equation variable by discussing the hitters who lost the most ADFBLD over a minimum of 30 flies + liners in both 2020 and 2021.
Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters whose pulled fly ball percentage (PFB) increased the most versus 2020. A majority of those hitters also boosted their HR/FB rates, which is no coincidence. Now let’s check out the other side of the coin, those hitters whose PFB declined the most in 2021 compared to 2020. Did their HR/FB rates slide as well? Let’s find out.
Today, we’re sticking with hitter pull fly ball percentage (PFB) and reviewing those that increased their marks most versus 2020. Often, you will see a hitter start pulling his flies more frequently in an effort to up his power. Let’s see if the increased PFB had that effect for these surgers.
Yesterday, I discussed the leaders of another variable of my hitter xHR/FB rate equation, pulled fly ball percentage (PFB). Let’s now review the laggards. Rather than look at this list negatively, consider the potential upside here if these hitters decide to become more pull-happy.
Let’s continue diving into the components of my hitter xHR/FB equation by reviewing the 2021 leaders in Pull FB% (PFB). This is the percentage of a hitter’s fly balls that are pulled. For home runs, the higher the PFB, the better…for the most part (there are always exceptions). Why? In the Statcast era (since 2015), average distance of fly balls by batted ball direction were as follows:
| Direction | Avg Dist in Feet (2015-2021) |
|---|---|
| Pull | 342 |
| Straightaway | 329 |
| Opposite | 292 |
Those are some serious differences solely based on the fly ball’s horizontal direction. Since hitters hit the ball further, on average, when they pull their flies, then a higher rate of pulled flies should typically result in a higher HR/FB rate. So let’s now review the 2021 PFB leaders (minimum 20 fly balls).
Today, let’s look into the hitters whose average distance of fly balls and line drives (ADFBLD) increased the most versus 2020. Remember that 2020 was not only a short season, but also affected by COVID-19 infections and the effects of the pandemic.
Yesterday, I listed and discussed the leaders in average distance of fly balls and line drives (ADFBLD). Let’s now flip to the laggards.
| Player | HR/FB | Avg Dist FB+LD |
|---|---|---|
| Magneuris Sierra | 0.0% | 244 |
| David Fletcher | 1.3% | 246 |
| Yonny Hernandez | 0.0% | 251 |
| Alcides Escobar | 5.2% | 253 |
| Breyvic Valera | 3.4% | 255 |
| Nick Madrigal | 5.6% | 256 |
| Cam Gallagher | 3.1% | 257 |
| Franchy Cordero | 4.8% | 258 |
| Adam Frazier | 3.3% | 258 |
| Derek Hill | 11.1% | 258 |
| Tim Locastro | 4.7% | 259 |
| Travis Jankowski | 3.8% | 260 |
| Santiago Espinal | 3.0% | 260 |
| Gerardo Parra | 8.0% | 261 |
| Pablo Reyes | 3.8% | 261 |
| Jarrod Dyson | 0.0% | 262 |
| Harold Castro | 4.8% | 263 |
| Ronald Torreyes | 7.6% | 263 |
| Ernie Clement | 7.9% | 263 |
| Jordy Mercer | 7.1% | 263 |
| J.P. Crawford | 5.8% | 264 |
| Population Average | 13.7% | 287 |
As you might imagine, I had to go deeper into the laggards to find enough surprising or interesting names to discuss. Most of these guys are obvious, but some are not.
I found Yonny Hernandez pretty intriguing last year when he was recalled. He wasn’t a top prospect, but has walked at insane rates in the minors, and combined that with super low SwStk% marks. His strikeout rates were good, but not great, likely because of his extreme patience, which I’m guessing has led to a higher rate of called strikeouts. He has excellent speed, stealing as many as 46 bases in the minors in a year. What he doesn’t have, though, is power. He hit just four home runs during his professional career, going back to 2015. So while his appearance on this list is no surprise, as a result, it gave me an opportunity to discuss his name, since it was easy to forget he debuted after his .265 wOBA. With the Rangers making over their middle infield, his path to playing time got far more difficult. But if he finds himself with regular at-bats again, I’m interested, especially in OBP leagues.
Yeah yeah, we know Nick Madrigal has little power. The question now as he starts his journey on the North side of Chicago with the Cubs is whether he’ll start running again. The intrigue here was the potential for a strong batting average, combined with steals. The batting average was there before he got hurt, but he had stolen only one base. Without any power, he needs to steal double digit bases, or he’ll be a one category guy.
Franchy Cordero qualifies as the first surprise on this list and a real shocker. While he has a number of flaws, including staying healthy, power hadn’t been one of them. Somehow, Cordero managed just a mid-single digit HR/FB rate, .071 ISO, and one homer over 127 at-bats. Has he run out of chances? It’s possible. That’s unfortunate, because he also owns speed and I was really curious to see what a full season of at-bats would bring us.
According to RosterResource, Derek Hill figures to open the season on the short side of a platoon with Akil Baddoo. Hill has shown excellent speed in the minors, while posting double digit HR/FB rates during his time at both Double-A and Triple-A, so the potential is there for a nice little speed and power mix. His flies and liners didn’t travel very far, but surprisingly, he posted a better than average Barrel FB%. Combine that with some other strong metrics, and he actually underperformed his xHR/FB rate. So I wouldn’t be totally scared off by this low ADFBLD, though I would think the other metrics are a bit more fluky and harder to sustain to keep up that xHR/FB rate. Strikeouts are an issue, especially since it doesn’t walk often, but the speed alone means he’s worth a look in deep leagues if he falls into regular playing time.
J.P. Crawford continues to appear on lists that suggest limited power, and for some reason, it continues to surprise me. While he only posted double digit HR/FB rates (and just barely) twice during his minor league career, I figured his power would grow and he would be posting double digit marks in the Majors by now. The problem here is that he doesn’t steal many bases and actually stole fewer bases this past season than he had in each of the two previous in like double the PAs. So if he’s not stealing bases, his power will need to blossom to be worth caring about in anything but deep leagues.
