2021 Review — Hitter HR/FB Spikes That Were FAKE!

Today, we’re keeping with our dive into hitter xHR/FB rate, but instead of discussing those whose marks validated their actual HR/FB rates, it’s time to reveal what has been fake news. That is, which hitters enjoyed a HR/FB rate surge, but xHR/FB rate wasn’t buying it? Depending on your leaguemates, this group might end up being overvalued on draft day.

Jordan Luplow’s HR/FB rates have been up and down throughout his short career, which isn’t very surprising given that every season of his has represented a small sample size. In 2021, he rebounded off a tiny sample 2020 when he posted a single digit HR/FB rate, and while some of the rebound was real, half of it wasn’t. Why should we care about Luplow anyway? Because over his entire career spanning 736 PAs, which is a bit more than full, healthy season, he has hit 34 homers and recorded 95 runs scored and 92 RBI! So if given the chance for increased playing time, he could potentially be intriguing in deep or NL-Only leagues. When he posted his career best HR/FB rate in 2019, xHR/FB rate did validate that, but in every other season, he has posted an xHR/FB rate in the low double digits, so it’s hard to determine what his true talent power level is. Now a member of the Diamondbacks, there should be opportunity for more playing time, especially if the NL adopts the DH again.

Javier Baez just posted the highest HR/FB rate of his career, which may have increased the value of the contract he signed with the Tigers. But, it wasn’t real. In fact, he posted higher xHR/FB rates in both 2018 and 2019. Obviously, there’s no prediction of a collapse, but given his high strikeout rate and mediocre FB%, it’s important he makes the most of the fly balls he hits. Moving to Detroit might not help either, as Tigers hitters have posted just a 10.8% HR/FB rate at home vs a 12.2% mark in away parks over the last five years. That might not sound like a big difference, but remember home park advantage is real, as batters tend to hit better, including posting a higher HR/FB rate, at home.

It would appear that Joey Gallo fully rebounded from his disappointing 2020. However, xHR/FB rate would beg to differ, as he actually posted near identical marks both years. Normally, this would have me concerned, but playing a full season in Yankee Stadium, one of the best parks for left-handed home runs, should help offset any loss of power skills. Furthermore, he’s still only 28, so there shouldn’t be any worry of age-related decline yet, and there still could be that one year he dramatically improves his strikeout rate, without sacrificing power (one can dream!).

For just the second time in his career, Yasmani Grandal posted a HR/FB rate over 20% and set a new career high. While this was the highest xHR/FB rate he has posted going back to 2015, it still fell far short of his actual mark. The good news is he posted the highest average distance of his flies and liners, along with his highest Barrel FB%. He even pulled his flies at the highest rate on my file. But at age 33, are we really expecting a repeat? Regression back toward his xHR/FB rate, plus regression in underlying skills driving that mark, means I’m betting on a return to a sub-20% HR/FB rate, and that’s precisely what I have projected.

For the longest time, I’ve hoped Brandon Belt with get out of the offense and power-suppressing AT&T Park, as I loved his skills and figured he would be a monster in a better hitting environment. We’ll still have to wait for a team switch, but Belt has become that monster over the last two seasons without having to put on another uniform. But given the small sample sizes, it really combines for one full season’s worth of PAs. The good news is he has pushed his xHR/FB rates over 20% for the first time in 2020 and kept it there in 2021. The bad news is that his HR/FB rate spike and new career high wasn’t real. His xHR/FB rate was below his 2020 mark and yet he posted a nearly 8% higher HR/FB rate. Heading into his age 34 season, I would like to think he’s transformed himself into a high teen or low 20% HR/FB rate guy, but his age and history suggest the better bet is a drop back into the mid-teens. Keep buying him in OBP leagues though!