Welcome to the 2023 edition of the RotoGraphs Matchmaker Service! No, I cannot find you a date. However, we could hopefully facilitate the marriage of league owner with leagueless owner. If you are seeking an owner to fill your fantasy league or are the owner hoping to be seeked to join that unfilled league, this is your new home.
Yesterday, I moved on to comparing ERA forecasts as part of my 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT against Steamer, discussing the starting pitcher THE BAT was more bullish on. Now let’s switch on over to Steamer’s favorites.
Today, I’ll continue the starting pitcher side of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT against Steamer projections. This time, we’ll hop on over to ERA. This is probably what we all pay most attention to and it’s likely what keeps a pitcher in his team’s rotation. There are a number of drivers of a pitcher’s ERA, such as skills like strikeout and walk rates, along with luck-influenced metrics like BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB rate. So let’s begin by reviewing the starting pitchers that THE BAT is more bullish on for ERA compared to Steamer. It’s important to note that THE BAT’s ERA projections are meaningfully higher than Steamer, so you’ll see smaller differences among its favorites, compared with Steamer’s favorites that will be revealed on Thursday.
Yesterday, I flipped my 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X projections against Steamer, to the pitching side. I began by comparing strikeout rate between the two systems, discussing those starting pitchers THE BAT is more bullish on. Let’s now find out who Steamer is more bullish on. It’s important to note that Steamer K% forecasts are higher on average than THE BAT’s, so the differences are higher than in yesterday’s article. That’s why relative projections are much more important when valuing players in your fantasy league than absolute projections.
At last, we have completed our 2023 hitter projection showdown pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in various categories. Let’s now jump over to starting pitcher. I’ll start by comparing K% forecasts. THE BAT X only projects hitters, so I’ve switched over to the original THE BAT system to compare with Steamer. Let’s see which starting pitchers (defined as starting at least 75% of total games appeared in, and also using a minimum of 100 projected innings) THE BAT is more bullish on for strikeout rate.
Yesterday, I identified and discussed five hitters with an ADP of at least 300 who THE BAT X is more bullish on for wOBA than Steamer. You might call these hitters “sleepers”. Let’s now flip over to Steamer’s implied sleepers. I made a small change to my filters here, adding a maximum of 450 PAs, to go along with my 300 PA minimum. This was to remove some names that have appeared multiple times in these showdowns, as there’s no sense in discussing them yet again.
Let’s shift our 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X and Steamer projection systems against each other, to sleepers! We’re going to stick with comparing wOBA, but I’m now filtering only for hitters with an ADP of 300+. Today will be THE BAT X sleepers, so in addition to the ADP filter, I’m also filtering for hitters who aren’t teamless and those forecasted for at least 300 PAs. Any fewer and you’re reaaaaaaaaaally speculating on that playing time. So let’s find out which hitters THE BAT X likes more for wOBA compared to Steamer that you could draft late or for cheap, depending on your league format.
Last week, I identified and discussed the hitters THE BAT X was most bullish on for wOBA compared with Steamer. While typically not a fantasy category, wOBA is still extremely important to pay attention to since it drives playing time and spot in the batting order, both of which fuel counting stats. So let’s now flip over to the hitters Steamer is more bullish on compared to THE BAT X.
Last Tuesday night, the competitors of the LABR Mixed draft virtually congregated for our annual mid-February 15-team draft. Drafts this early are challenging. On the one hand, the early timing benefits the prepared and the more highly skilled. On the other hand, there remains a great many unknowns that we need to make educated guesses on at best, and complete shots in the dark on at worst. In addition, the time between the draft and opening day (versus leagues that draft a week to three before the seasons begins) means more opportunity for injuries to decimate your roster before the season even begins!
I’ve finished the fantasy stat comparisons of the 2023 projection showdown between THE BAT X and Steamer on the hitting side, so now let’s flip to wOBA. Why does wOBA matter if it’s typically not a fantasy category? Because it influences both playing time and lineup spot. It doesn’t matter if a hitter produces the nice mix of home runs and stolen bases that fantasy owners drool over if that same hitter is struggling to keep his wOBA over .300. A poor wOBA could result in a drop in the batting order, which would reduce the hitter’s counting stats, and/or a spot firmly on the bench or even a demotion to the minors. On the other hand, a strong wOBA, especially one that’s beating expectations, could trigger a move to a better lineup spot, increasing counting stats, or increase playing time if the players wasn’t a full-timer at the moment. So wOBA definitely matters…a lot! Let’s begin by identifying the hitters THE BAT X is more bullish on for wOBA than Steamer.
