Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Decliners — Through Apr 9, 2023

Yesterday, I revisited the starting pitcher fastball velocity increasers. Today, it’s time to return to the starting pitchers who have suffered velocity declines. Any names that appeared in my first article will be skipped in the commentary. A reminder that velocity tends to increase as the season progresses, so it’s not necessarily time to panic just yet. However, since I’m only discussing the biggest decliners, odds are most, if not all, of these pitchers will fail to regain the velocity they showed last year.

Gosh, Rich Hill is still pitching?! It’s incredible that the 43-year-old is still performing decently enough to hold a rotation spot, but as his fastball loses steam, I’m not sure how long that will last. This is the lowest velocity he’s ever shown, as he has never averaged below 87.9 MPH in a season. His curveball now averages a hilarious 70.9 MPH, becoming the perfect example of a sloooooooow curve. On a weak Pirates offense, wins could be tough. I don’t see a reason to own him in any league format.

Until 2019 and 2020, Kevin Gausman always possessed big velocity, but had failed to really turn that heat into strikeouts. The light finally did go on and he’s been a strong fantasy performer since. This season, while his velocity was down slightly in his first start, but not to a degree anyone would worry about, it was his second start that was quite concerning. He averaged just 91.5 MPH with his fastball, but we haven’t heard anything about it since. Perhaps it was just a bad day and he’ll be back to normal in his next start, so if you’re an owner, make sure to check his velocity in his next start. If it doesn’t rebound, something may be wrong and it’s likely we’ll hear some news about it.

Apparently it’s the new pitch clock that has wreaked havoc on Carlos Carrasco’s season so far. He has never averaged less than 93.3 MPH with his fastball in a season. His first game represented the lowest velocity he has averaged in a game in his career, while his second was ever so slightly better, tying for third worst velocity in his career. He has walked more batters than he has struck out, so his control has clearly been affected as well. Whether it’s truly the pitch clock or something physical, it would be difficult to start him in any format if and until his velocity returns or he figures something out to adjust to the reduced velocity.

Since returning from TJ surgery, Noah Syndergaard’s velocity has dropped from 97.9 MPH back in 2019 to 94.4 MPH in his first year back in 2021, to just 93 MPH this season. That’s a massive decline. Even though Syndergaard has sported strong secondary pitches in the past, that was when his fastball averaged in the upper 90s. Without that fastball, he’s lost some of his whiff-inducing ability with those pitches. His strikeout rate isn’t coming back without the velocity, but he does have the control to deliver some NL-Only value. I just don’t think I’d want to own him in anything shallower.

You probably don’t own Kyle Freeland, though it’s possible someone in your league picked him up after somehow going two starts without allowing a run. His sinker has been his primary fastball, but that velocity is down too, though not as dramatically as his four-seamer. The velocity loss really just came during his second start, so if you have any interest in picking him up or you already own him, make sure to check his velocity during his next game.

While Logan Gilbert’s velocity is still strong on an absolute basis, it’s well below his first two seasons. His first start was actually in line with his 2021 debut, but below last year when his velocity spiked. The big issue was his last start, as his velocity was down 1.2 MPH from where it was during his first start. Last year, none of his secondary pitches were particularly good at generating swinging strikes, so he seemingly can’t afford to lose a chunk of velocity, as he heavily relies on that fastball. Watch his velocity closely his next start before taking any action here.

Luis Castillo’s fastball velocity has dipped to 95.9 MPH in a season in 2018, but it hasn’t been below 97.1 MPH over the last three seasons. He was down a bit during his first start, but nothing to worry about, so like some of the others on the list, it was his second start that was the issue. He averaged just 95.2 MPH, down 1.3 MPH from his first start. Just four times last season did he average less than 96 MPH with his fastball, with 95.2 MPH being his lowest. With an elite changeup and excellent slider, he could probably still perform well enough with a diminished fastball, but might not earn what you paid for. Pay attention here, but he’s not as worrisome as some other names I’d say.