Jurickson Profar Heads to Rockies

I always get excited when a hitter either signs with or gets traded to the Rockies. The latest such transaction occurred on Sunday when Jurickson Profar signed a one-year contract with the team. He’s expected to serve as the team’s starting left fielder and we have him slotted into the leadoff spot. Does the move suddenly make him worthy of rostering in shallower mixed leagues? Let’s consult the park factors.

It’s nearly a clean sweep, which is exactly what I expected to see!

Man, the gap in hit type factors is crazy. Let’s begin with singles, which has the most significant influence on BABIP. Coors Field sports the second highest left-handed and highest right-handed singles factors in baseball. Yeahhhhh, it’s a good place to drop those hits in. Meanwhile, Petco actually suppresses singles! So not only is Profar heading to a home park that boosts singles, but he’s coming from one that actually reduced them. He may have been affected by Petco’s hit reducing ways, as his home BABIP in his three years there was just .263, versus a .282 mark on the road. With just a career .264 BABIP, he could use all the BABIP help he could get.

Moving onto doubles, we find a similar story, as Coors is one of the better parks for lefties and by far the best for righties. Profar has also hit significantly more doubles on the road than at home, so he should find Coors quite enjoyable for his extra-base hit total. Profar isn’t much of a triples hitter, but he is going to a top triples park. Perhaps he add one triple to his total, which means these factors aren’t going to have much of an impact.

We finish the hit type factors with home runs, where Coors ranks fourth for lefties and second for righties. Petco, on the other hand, is just pitcher friendly. During his Padres career, Profar has posted an 8.5% HR/FB rate at home, but a lower 8.0% mark on the road. So he didn’t seem to be hurt by Petco’s slight home run suppression ways, but he should get a nice boost at Coors. With a career HR/FB rate of 10.2%, but only single digit marks the last two seasons, the move should help him return to double digits.

Next up are strikeout and walk rates. The thin Colorado air results in less movement on pitches, making them easier to hit, and cutting down on strikeouts. Profar has never had an issue with strikeouts and has kept his SwStk% in single digits his entire career. While the move is a positive, he’s already so good that it won’t benefit him as much as a Joey Gallo-type (man, wouldn’t it be something if he joined the Rockies?!). Coors’ walk rate factor is slightly reducing, which is probably because of how many balls are put into play. Profar has pushed his walk rate into double digits the last two years, so it’s possible he sees a slight decline there.

Driving that high singles factor at Coors is a high LD factor. It’s tied for the highest LD factor among all parks. Only once in his career has Profar posted a sub-20% LD%, so while he doesn’t need the help, more line drives are likely to come and help boost his BABIP. In addition to the increased line drives boosting his BABIP, Coors squashes pop-ups, as it easily ranks lowest in IFFB factor. A high LD and low IFFB factor means it’s just easier to square up the ball at Coors.

Finally, we end up at the Basic factor which is a run-scoring factor. To no one’s surprise, Coors is the best in baseball, while Petco is tied for second worst. You can’t get a much better swing than that!

It’s hard to have dreamed up a better team for Profar to have signed with and the improvement in parks. I think the move here certainly puts him back on the shallow mixed league map, though don’t go overboard! I see upside of 20 homers and a .270 batting average, which combined with a handful of steals and potentially a boatload of runs while leading off, makes him attractive for what will likely be a pretty cheap price.