Last Thursday, I listed and discussed the hitters who THE BAT X was more optimistic on for RBI than Steamer. Now let’s switch over to the batters Steamer is more bullish on for RBI than THE BAT X.
Let’s continue rolling on with the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories and discussing the players each system is more bullish on. Today, we shift over to runs batted in (RBI) and follow the same 650 plate appearance pace calculation I did when reviewing stolen base forecasts. RBI are driven by a couple of factors — the batter’s own offense, particularly his power/extra-base hit ability, his spot in the lineup (middle of the order, spots 3-5, are best), and the performance of the hitters ahead of him in the lineup (ideally, they are high OBP, but lower in power so they drive in other runners or themselves via the home run less frequently and leave more for the batter in question). Since one of those factors is power, driven significantly by home runs, there will be some similar names here to what made THE BAT X home run favorites list. That makes sense! So let’s get to it.
Yesterday, I pivoted the 2023 projection showdown pitting THE BAT X against Steamer to batting average. These were the hitters THE BAT X was more bullish on for batting average than Steamer. Now let’s find out who Steamer is more bullish on than THE BAT X for batting average and what’s driving the difference in forecast.
Let’s continue the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories. Today, I’ll shift over to batting average, and identify and discuss the hitters that THE BAT X is more bullish on than Steamer. Unlike the counting stat showdowns, there’s no need to perform extra calculations to account for different PA forecasts, making it a whole lot easier! Batting average differences are primarily driven by disagreements over projected BABIP and/or strikeout rate, so let’s find out what’s fueling THE BAT X’s optimism.
Yesterday, I pivoted the 2023 projection showdown pitting THE BAT X against Steamer to stolen bases. These were the hitters THE BAT X was more bullish on for steals than Steamer. Now let’s find out who Steamer is more bullish on than THE BAT X for stolen bases, given a constant 650 plate appearances.
Let’s continue the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories. Today, I’ll shift over to stolen bases, and identify and discuss the hitters that THE BAT X is more bullish on than Steamer. Like I did for home runs, I converted the projected stolen base total into a ratio first and then calculated the season pace. For steals, I used plate appearances as the denominator, instead of at-bats, and then 650 PAs for the season pace. Let’s find out who THE BAT X likes to steal more bases than Steamer.
Yesterday, I began a new series, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X against Steamer in a series of projection comparisons. I started off by identifying eight hitters who THE BAT X was projecting for a greater home run total over a 600 AB pace. Let’s now find out which hitters Steamer is forecasting for a greater home run total than THE BAT X.
The most interesting player projections are those that vary wildly from system to system. I love when the forecasting systems disagree about a certain player as it really spotlights the different methodologies of the underlying projection processes driving the calculations. Sometimes it’s obvious what’s driving the gap, as one system might regress more heavily toward the league average, while another might weight the individual’s performance more heavily. So let’s begin a new projection showdown series, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories. I’m curious which system likes which players better in the various categories and it will help to try to understand why the systems are more bullish or bearish.
Yesterday, I listed and discussed seven hitters whose Statcast Barrel% surged the most versus 2021. Now let’s flip over to the hitters whose Barrel% marks declined most versus 2021. Were their HR/FB rates dragged down along with it? Will either marks rebound in 2023? Let’s dive in.
Since Barrel% has been recorded beginning in 2015, there’s a 0.82 correlation between the Statcast metric and HR/FB rate. That’s pretty big! While Barrel% theoretically includes all batted balls, the vast majority occur on fly balls, as 76% of barrels hit in 2022 were of this batted ball type. The rest came from line drives. So a quick shortcut to determine a hitter’s HR/FB rate potential is to simply look at his Barrel%. The higher the mark, the better. Let’s take a look at which hitters increased their Barrel% marks most versus 2021 and whether their HR/FB rates also increased.
