With only around 7% of the season in the books, it’s still far too early to evaluate the majority of performance metrics. But we still want to analyze something, so let’s review the hitter SwStk% improvers versus last year. I chose SwStk% instead of strikeout rate, as the former has a 0.76 correlation with the latter from 2018 to 2022. There’s less noise in SwStk% than strikeout rate, so it’s a better skill metric to evaluate this early, rather than an outcome statistic. Remember, the sample sizes here are small and contact ability could fluctuate throughout the season. But hitters improve their strikeout rates all the time, which could lead to a breakout given the additional balls in play. Cutting down on swings and misses could be an early sign that such improvement will either continue or occur soon.

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Usually, the larger the sample size the better when evaluating a metric. However, that’s not necessarily the case when looking at maxEV, Statcast’s peak exit velocity reading for a particular hitter. While you wouldn’t want to ding a hitter whose maxEV has declined versus last year after just a week and a half of games, you do want to celebrate a hitter who has already increased their maxEV after such a small sample of balls in play. You can’t really fake hitting the ball harder, so it’s possible that an increased maxEV is an early sign of a power spike. Let’s review the maxEV increasers and see if we can find any interesting names.

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Yesterday, I revisited the starting pitcher fastball velocity increasers. Today, it’s time to return to the starting pitchers who have suffered velocity declines. Any names that appeared in my first article will be skipped in the commentary. A reminder that velocity tends to increase as the season progresses, so it’s not necessarily time to panic just yet. However, since I’m only discussing the biggest decliners, odds are most, if not all, of these pitchers will fail to regain the velocity they showed last year.

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We’re going to continue on reviewing fastball velocities as it’s one of the few metrics that actually mean something this early. Note that for whatever reason, velocity readings are all over the map for the same pitch by the same pitcher, depending on which source I’m looking at, so it makes it kind of impossible to know for sure how hard a pitcher is throwing. Hopefully, the relative numbers are correct, as in a 1.5 MPH increase from one source matches another source, even if the absolute velocities differ. With a second start under a bunch of pitchers’ belts, along with first starts by a number of pitchers, let’s review the increasers again. Any names that appeared in my first article will be skipped in the commentary.

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In deeper leagues, strong non-closer relievers can earn positive fantasy value. Every year, a slew of relievers seemingly pop up out of nowhere or take a giant step forward and become elite. Some of them eventually steal the closer role or record a couple of saves. So it pays to monitor their velocity readings as well. Today, I’ll share five relievers whose four-seam fastball velocity is up most compared to last year. Since we’re dealing with tiny samples here, I limited the search to just four-seamers and 10 pitches thrown during both 2022 and 2023.

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Yesterday, I reviewed and discussed seven starting pitchers who enjoyed significantly increased fastball velocity during their first start compared to full season 2022 velocity.

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While it’s far, far too early to evaluate the majority of statistics generated during the season so far, there are a few that already provide meaningful information. One of those data points is pitcher velocity. All else being equal, a faster fastball could work wonders for a pitcher’s performance, while a slower fastball could either signal an injury or a decline in results. It’s never too early to check in on starting pitcher fastball velocities, even after just one start. So let’s identify the starting pitchers with the biggest jumps in fastball velocity versus 2022.

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I always get excited when a hitter either signs with or gets traded to the Rockies. The latest such transaction occurred on Sunday when Jurickson Profar signed a one-year contract with the team. He’s expected to serve as the team’s starting left fielder and we have him slotted into the leadoff spot. Does the move suddenly make him worthy of rostering in shallower mixed leagues? Let’s consult the park factors.

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Yesterday, I compared starting pitcher projected dollar value as part of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X forecasts against Steamer projections in the various fantasy categories, identifying the pitchers THE BAT was more bullish on. Today, we finish this series by identifying and discussing which pitchers Steamer is a bigger fan of compared to THE BAT.

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I’m going to finish up the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X forecasts against Steamer projections in the various fantasy categories, with starting pitcher dollar values. This sums up the forecasts in one tidy number and makes it easy to identify which pitchers each system likes better. Today, we’ll start with the starting pitchers that THE BAT is valuing significantly higher than Steamer.

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