2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Runs Scored Forecasts, Part 1

Let’s continue rolling on with the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer in the various fantasy categories and discussing the players each system is more bullish on. Today, we shift over to runs scored (R) and follow the same 650 plate appearance pace calculation I’ve been using. Batting order position plays a huge role here, as the higher up in the lineup, the more plate appearances a hitter will receive, providing more opportunities to score runs. But of course, we’re keeping PAs constant, so batting order doesn’t play that role here. Instead, since all the best hitters are typically in the top five spots, being ahead of the stronger hitters makes it more likely you’ll be knocked in after reaching base. Obviously, home run power also increases runs scored as it’s a guaranteed run. So lineup spot and power are two major factors in runs scored, plus OBP, for obvious reasons. Let’s find out who THE BAT X is most bullish on in runs scored versus Steamer. You might see some familiar names THE BAT X has been bullish on in other categories too, which makes sense given that if a system is more bullish on overall performance, it’s likely that results in higher counting stats across the board.

It was an injury riddled and disappointing season for Tyler O’Neill, after a fantasy and real baseball breakout in 2021. His BABIP tumbled, while his power slid to 2019-2020 levels. We project him to hit sixth in the Cardinals batting order, but that could easily change if he gets off to a hot start. THE BAT X is most bullish on O’Neill’s performance, forecasting the highest wOBA and OBP among all systems, while Steamer is lowest. But even with the bullish projection from THE BAT X, I find it mighty tough for him to score 94 runs while batting sixth. While it’s certainly in the realm of possibility over that many PAs and the potential to move up in the lineup, I think it’s more of a high end range, rather than a 50th percentile type forecast. I think Steamer is a tad low here, but would bet his 650 pace runs scored total finishes closer to their projection than THE BAT X’s.

Chris Taylor seemingly never has a full-time job heading into the season and yet always ends up with enough at-bats to make a difference in deeper fantasy leagues, and sometimes even shallower formats. His 2022 performance was disappointing though and likely costed him a regular job this year. THE BAT X is projecting him to rebound and its forecasts is right in line with the majority of the other systems. Its Steamer that remains bearish here, with the lowest OBP and wOBA projection among them all. It’s fascinating that every system is forecasting his lowest BABIP over any sort of reasonable sample size, which isn’t that surprising given his recent extreme fly ball tendency that’s bound to affect his BABIP at some point. This is a tough one coming off the season he has and not knowing where he might hit. I’d suggest that THE BAT X is a bit too optimistic here and probably lean toward Steamer’s forecast as the safer bet.

THE BAT X is a huge Shohei Ohtani fan, forecasting the highest OBP and wOBA among all systems, versus Steamer which is lowest. The Angels have always struggled with being top heavy, with essentially Mike Trout and little else. Perhaps Hunter Renfroe’s acquisition will help here and Anthony Rendon is healthy for a change and rebounds. That would really boost Ohtani’s runs scored potential. However, again, it seems as if THE BAT X’s forecast is a best case scenario, while Steamer’s is the better percentage play of actually occurring.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, THE BAT X is most bullish on J.T. Realmuto (excluding its sister THE BAT), while Steamer is most bearish. Interestingly, most metrics are similar between the two systems, so the driving force is almost entirely their disparate BABIP projections, with THE BAT X up top and Steamer at the bottom. However, looking at the other systems, THE BAT X is the one on the island on its own, as Steamer is much closer to everyone else. That’s interesting considering Realmuto’s career BABIP is well above every non-THE BAT X projection, so it’s possible aging effects from a catcher are being heavily weighed. I do think Steamer is being overly harsh here with the low BABIP, so I would learn toward THE BAT X’s runs scored projection.

Injury limited Ozzie Albies to about a half a season and he endured his worst performance as a Major Leaguer. He figures to open the year batting sixth, but there are numerous paths to moving up into the top half of the lineup. While THE BAT X is forecasting a bigger rebound than Steamer, the difference here isn’t that significant, and certainly less of a gap than the hitters above. The Braves are actually projected to score the most runs per game, so if Albies could wiggle his way closer to the top of the lineup, then THE BAT X’s projection is a gimme. But will he be able to? Even if he fails to, I think he’ll come closer to their forecast, as Steamer is well below anyone else.

Jake McCarthy had a wonderful half a fantasy season, and now THE BAT X is bullish on his runs scored, despite projecting a lower wOBA (but near identical OBP) as Steamer. We have McCarthy hitting third in the Diamondbacks lineup, which is odd considering new acquisition Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to outperform him both in OBP and SLG. If McCarthy stuck in the three hole, I think THE BAT X projection looks reasonable, especially given his speed. However, I’m not too excited here as he vastly outperformed his Statcast expected metrics, wasn’t much of a prospect to begin with, and could therefore see some serious regression. That could push him down in the lineup, which is a problem on a team projected to be in the bottom half in runs scored. I’m taking the Steamer forecast here.