2023 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer wOBA Forecasts, Part 1

I’ve finished the fantasy stat comparisons of the 2023 projection showdown between THE BAT X and Steamer on the hitting side, so now let’s flip to wOBA. Why does wOBA matter if it’s typically not a fantasy category? Because it influences both playing time and lineup spot. It doesn’t matter if a hitter produces the nice mix of home runs and stolen bases that fantasy owners drool over if that same hitter is struggling to keep his wOBA over .300. A poor wOBA could result in a drop in the batting order, which would reduce the hitter’s counting stats, and/or a spot firmly on the bench or even a demotion to the minors. On the other hand, a strong wOBA, especially one that’s beating expectations, could trigger a move to a better lineup spot, increasing counting stats, or increase playing time if the players wasn’t a full-timer at the moment. So wOBA definitely matters…a lot! Let’s begin by identifying the hitters THE BAT X is more bullish on for wOBA than Steamer.

It’s pretty shocking to find superstar and future hall of famer Mike Trout top any sort of list of projection differences, especially one for overall offense. THE BAT X is projecting a higher walk rate and BABIP than Steamer, both metrics in which the latter is lowest among systems. Trout’s walk rate slipped to its lowest since 2012, so all are forecasting a rebound, but THE BAT X is a bit more so than Steamer. Every system is also forecasting a BABIP well below Trout’s career average, but Steamer is alone on an island of pessimism. Interestingly, THE BAT X and Steamer both project lower ISO marks than every other system, but Steamer is significantly lower than the rest. In fact, Steamer’s ISO forecast would mark Trout’s lowest since 2016. I don’t understand all the pessimism from Steamer so I’m definitively getting behind THE BAT X’s wOBA projection here.

Shohei Ohtani is one of the world’s most baffling humans. How is it possible to be this good at hitting a baseball and pitching a baseball?! Since THE BAT X and Steamer are identical and close in walk rate and strikeout rate forecasts, respectively, we move on to the other metrics to discover the driver of the wOBA gap. THE BAT X is far and away most bullish on his BABIP, while Steamer is lowest among systems. Except during the short 2020 season and over a small sample, Ohtani has never posted a BABIP below .303, so it’s odd to see both Steamer and ZiPS projecting a sub-.300 mark, especially given that the shift rules have changed. Every system is projecting a higher ISO than 2022, but Steamer is also lowest among all systems. Ohtani actually just barely notched a new maxEV high last year, and while his Barrel% did fall, it remained elite and still second highest of his short career. So I wouldn’t worry too much about the drop in HR/FB rate and think his power will increase more than Steamer projects. I think THE BAT X is probably too optimistic here, but I still think Steamer’s pessimism is greater than THE BAT X’s optimism, and would side with THE BAT X.

Kyle Schwarber became an extreme flyballer last year and combined a career high plate appearances to record 40 homers for the first time in his career. THE BAT X is highest in walk rate, while Steamer is lowest, and I’m not sure why the latter is projecting his lowest mark since 2019. Similarly, THE BAT X is the high water mark (tied with ZiPS) on BABIP, while Steamer is the only system below .260. This is curious given the absence of the shift, as I’d imagine Schwarber benefits. That said, his BABIP will heavily depend on how much of that FB% spike he maintains. Moving on to ISO, THE BAT X is easily the highest among all systems, while Steamer is lowest. Since it would be difficult to maintain that FB% spike, I think the percentage play is his ISO declines. While I think Steamer is a bit too pessimistic, I do lean toward Schwarber’s wOBA finishing closer than to THE BAT X’s forecast.

Catchers seem to develop at a different pace than hitters at other positions, so it’s always difficult to determine whether a top prospect ends up panning out, or a veteran hitter suddenly loses it. It looks like THE BAT X is projecting Willson Contreras to continue on as he has been, while Steamer is projecting significant decline. A big difference here is walk rate, where THE BAT X is higher than Steamer, which is lowest among forecasts. Another big difference is in BABIP, where THE BAT X is the only system above .300, despite the fact he hasn’t exceeded .298 since 2020, while Steamer is second lowest, just above ZiPS. Given his history, I would expect Steamer to be too pessimistic here, but THE BAT X to be too bullish. On the ISO side, THE BAT X is more bullish than Steamer, which is lowest among systems. The move to Busch Stadium certainly hurts his offense, so I do think his wOBA finishes closer to Steamer, but not nearly as low as it forecasts.

After J.D. Martinez’s HR/FB rate fell below 20% in 2020, he hasn’t been able to recover, save for a partial rebound in 2021. The move out of BABIP friendly Fenway Park will be interesting on his results. THE BAT X is forecasting the lowest strikeout rate among systems, while Steamer is highest, with the latter’s forecast representing his highest mark since 2017. There’s also a meaningful difference in BABIP between the two, with THE BAT X far more bullish. Surprisingly, Martinez has posted a higher BABIP on the road than in Fenway! That’s hard to believe, but clearly given the sample size, his swing didn’t take advantage of the park’s quirks like most other hitters. That’s a good sign for his performance for his move to Dodger Stadium, though his HR/FB rate and ISO were higher at home. So I don’t think he loses as much BABIP as the systems think, though THE BAT X is pretty optimistic on his ISO rebound to nearly .200. I’m going to go with THE BAT X here as I think Steamer is far too pessimistic.

It was an odd year for Nick Castellanos, as everything was generally in line, but his power disappeared. While THE BAT X and Steamer are pretty close on his projected strikeout and walk rates, THE BAT X is more bullish on his BABIP compared to Steamer, which is the lowest forecast of the bunch. Castellanos used to own an ideal batted ball profile for BABIP, heavy on line drives and light on pop-ups. That changed last year, as his LD% dipped below 20% for the first time, and his IFFB% jumped into double digits for the first time. Was this a fluke off year or the beginning of a decline? Only time will tell! If it’s the beginning of a decline, I’d expect his BABIP to slide to better match that batted ball distribution, but I still think THE BAT X proves closer as it’s already below his recent history and still has room for upside toward historical rates. THE BAT X is also more bullish on his ISO, as the highest mark among systems, versus Steamer’s lowest mark. Castellanos hadn’t posted an ISO below .200 since 2015, so it was surprising to see him do it while playing in his new hitter friendly home park. I’m going to bet on THE BAT X here simply because I just feel like last year was a fluke and he’s not old enough to think he’s in a rapid decline phase.