For the third year in a row, I decided to put together a little experiment during the all-star break. I took two groups of 10 starting pitchers comprised of those whose ERAs outperformed and underperformed their SIERA marks by the largest margins. Oddly, the poll results no longer show how many readers voted, but of those that answered the question “Which Group Posts a Lower 2nd Half ERA?”, 72.2% of you voted for Group A, the SIERA outperformers. This is actually an increase from last year, when just 61.1% of you voted for Group A! Have you learned nothing from reading my work?! Despite this group actually posting a very slightly higher SIERA than Group B, you felt that the magic would continue. Let’s find out the results and if the majority was correct.

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It’s the final Pod’s Picks recap of the season! Finally, we get to my favorite position for nerdy analysis, the starting pitchers. Refresh your memory with my original starting pitcher Pod’s Picks post.

Bullish

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Admit it, you were a Gregory Polanco owner, held onto him all season long, and were disappointed by his performance. Though you felt he wasn’t a bust per se, it sure felt like he failed to earn his cost, right? If you recall, and I promise not to get upset if you do not, the RotoGraphs five ranked him 46th overall among outfielders in the preseason. Now tell me if it surprises you that he actually finished 32nd in value, earning $14.58. Because that is what happened according to Zach Sanders’ calculator.

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Prepare for an adventure in which we fly over to the FanGraphs leaderboard, choose a minimum of 120 plate appearances, and sort in descending order by ISO. Unless you played in an AL-Only league and were trying to catch the standings leader who owned this very character, you might be shocked who sits ranked second. Obviously, I gave it away in the title of this article. But if you remain stumped, it was 32-year-old Franklin Gutierrez. The man didn’t even play in 2014 due to health reasons and came into 2015 with a career ISO mark of just .135.

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You all remember the clever hashtag #ManBearPuig that parodied the brilliant South Park episode ManBearPig, right? Of course you do, because you use Twitter and you love South Park. Sadly, Yasiel Puig is quickly shedding his ManBearness. After posting a scintillating .398 wOBA during his 2013 debut, his performance has declined for two straight seasons, with the fall off this year a precipitous one. Will ManBearPuig make his triumphant return?

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Maybe. End of article.

In late August of 2014, the Red Sox signed Rusney Castillo to a seven year contract and the considerable hype was ignited. Unfortunately, Castillo battled injuries, was shuttled back and forth between Triple-A and the big league club several times and was disappointing at the plate at both the minor and Major League levels. But Castillo seemingly has all the tools. Will they translate into actual performance?

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So it didn’t exactly go as planned for Jorge Soler in 2015. Rather than act as an integral part of an exciting young and powerful Cubs offense, Soler fizzled. Rather than make good on his sleeper/breakout/undervalued promise, he finished a pathetic 84th in value among just outfielders. That means he was worthless in 12-team leagues that start five outfielders! I did not see that coming.

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The last of the hitter Steamer and I reviews is upon us, as I recap how my Pod Projection compared to Steamer’s preseason forecast, and how both systems performed against what actually transpired. I was significantly more bullish about A.J. Pollock’s 2015 prospects than Steamer was. In fact, out of all full-time players, the difference between the two Pollock forecasts was the greatest.

Who knew Pollock would go on to finish as the second most valuable outfielder and overall hitter?!

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For our third Pod Projection review of the season, I will recap what was predicted and what actually happened for George Springer in his sophomore season. Refresh your memory by checking back on my original Pod Projection post.

Heading into 2014, Springer ranked as one of the top prospects in baseball and didn’t disappoint upon his arrival to Houston. He did exactly what his minor league record suggested he might — strike out a lot, supplement those swings and misses with a strong walk rate, and display immense power. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by a quadriceps injury, but naturally, expectations were high for 2015.

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The Steamer and I reviews continue this week, which pits a player’s preseason Pod Projection against his Steamer projection. Today, I’ll review 2014 breakout Corey Dickerson, who unfortunately saw his plate appearance total cut in half due to various injuries. I was far more bullish on his prospects than Steamer was.

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