2015 Average Absolute Angle Laggards

Yesterday, I shared the fantasy relevant 2015 leaders in average absolute angle (AAA), one of the three components of my xHR/FB rate equation. If you don’t feel like clicking back to yesterday’s article, I will repeat what this mysterious metric is all about.

Think of the field broken into equal segments, with center field at 0 and each side of the field representing a value increasing or decreasing from there. According to the definition at Baseball Heat Maps, -45 is the left field line and 45 is the right field line. Since we shouldn’t care which line the ball is hit toward, I use the absolute value of the angle, and then the average of all those batted ball angles. So the higher the number, the more toward the lines the hitter’s batted balls were hit. And obviously since fence distances are closest down the lines, a higher absolute angle should yield more homers.

This metric differs from Pull% found on FanGraphs. In fact, I just calculated the correlation between 2015 Pull% and average absolute angle and it was just 0.01! Pull%, of course, only counts pulled balls and all batted ball types. A high average absolute angle doesn’t tell you if the ball was pulled down the line often or hit the opposite way down the line often and it doesn’t matter. It also only counts fly balls (and home runs). So if you’re looking at some of the players listed below and wondering why their marks don’t match up with Pull%, these are the reasons. Also of note, this data is not available online. The “angle” metric at Baseball Heat Maps is not the same thing.

2015 Average Absolute Angle Laggards

Name	Avg Abs Angle	HR/FB
Jose Reyes	14.8	4.7%
Hunter Pence	16.1	19.6%
Yan Gomes	16.1	11.3%
Ben Revere	16.2	2.0%
Andrelton Simmons	16.2	3.7%
Giancarlo Stanton	16.3	32.1%
Will Middlebrooks	16.3	10.7%
Michael Bourn	16.5	0.0%
Jung-Ho Kang	16.5	16.9%
Chris Carter	16.7	18.9%
Miguel Montero	16.7	17.9%
Alex Avila	17.0	11.4%
Andrew McCutchen	17.1	13.6%

I noted yesterday that the group HR/FB average for the leaders was 14.5%, validating that a higher AAA is a positive for HR/FB rate. This group’s unweighted average is 12.5%, which is still higher than the league average, and much higher than I expected. Of course, it includes Stanton. Without him, the average drops to 10.9%.

Look at Jose Reyes bring up the rear. It’s difficult (foolish?) to project him to play a full season for health reasons, but we also might have to dock playing time if he is suspended for domestic abuse charges. With all that said, I think he’ll come at a nice discount and produce strong profit with a full year in Coors.

Hunter Pence offset that low AAA with his highest batted ball distance since 2009. Though his season was cut in half due to injury, his skills were right in line with past years. He might be undervalued as well.

I think we could essentially give Yan Gomes a pass at anything negative he did this year given the injuries he suffered.

Ben Revere is exactly the type of hitter I expected to dot this list. Obviously, there’s no hope for a sudden power outburst to five homers.

Giancarlo Stanton sticks out here and is clearly the answer to “which one of these hitter does not belong?” Not surprisingly, this was the lowest AAA he has posted in his career. But like Pence above, he offset the suppressed AAA with his batted ball distance, which jumped to a new career high and led all qualified hitters. Some of the fences at Marlins Park are moving in this year and the walls are being lowered. This sounds like good news for Stanton, but how much better can he realistically get?!

Will Middlebrooks moves to the 5th best venue for right-handed home runs in baseball. He’ll likely come dirt cheap. I’d take the gamble in NL-Only leagues.

This was a career low AAA for Andrew McCutchen, though he’s never posted a mark above 20. That means he has essentially been an up the middle guy during his career, which is why his HR/FB rate haven’t quite matched his excellent batted ball distance marks. Of course, the home park plays a role as well.