Hyun Soo Kim & Trayce Thompson: Deep League Wire
May 4, 2016
If you’re hurting for outfield help in your deep mixed or mono league, this week’s deep league waiver wire is to the rescue!
Author Archive: Mike Podhorzer
xK% and Potential Pitcher Strikeout Rate Decliners
May 3, 2016
Two years ago, I modified the first equation I developed to yield an improved expected strikeout rate formula. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, as well as his overall rate of strikes thrown. The beauty of the equation is that it uses components that stabilize quickly, as the rates as per pitch, rather than per inning or per batter.
Yesterday, I discussed the starting pitchers whose xK% most exceed their actual strikeout rates. Today, I’ll look at the other side of the list — those starting pitchers whose actual strikeout rates most exceed their xK% marks. These pitchers are at significant risk for regression.
xK% and Potential Pitcher Strikeout Rate Surgers
May 2, 2016
Two years ago, I modified the first equation I developed to yield an improved expected strikeout rate formula. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, as well as his overall rate of strikes thrown. The beauty of the equation is that it uses components that stabilize quickly, as the rates as per pitch, rather than per inning or per batter. I calculated the xK% marks for all qualified starting pitchers, compared it to their xK% marks, and sorted. Let’s discuss those with the most significant potential upside, as suggested by xK%.
Pineda and Severino and Buchholz and Fiers, Oh My
April 28, 2016
Let’s begin our discussion of a foursome of American League starting pitchers saddled with inflated ERAs by presenting two tables first:
Pitching Metric YoY Correlations
| Metric | YoY Correlation 2002-2012 |
| WHIP | 0.430 |
| ERA | 0.373 |
| LOB% | 0.238 |
| BABIP | 0.235 |
| HR/FB | -0.029 |
SOURCE: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/basic-pitching-metric-correlation-1955-2012-2002-2012/
Pitching Metric Stabilization Points
| Metric | Stabilization Point |
| HR/FB | 400 fly balls |
| BABIP | 2,000 balls in play |
SOURCE: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/
Mike Zunino & Jerry Sands: Deep League Waiver Wire
April 27, 2016
Let’s go deep down into the depths of your free agent pool. It’s where the risks are great and hidden treasures may emerge. Today’s theme is speculating on two guys that could remain worthless, but will cost you next to nothing to find out.
Hitter Strikeout Rate Regressers
April 26, 2016
Yesterday, I shared a list of the 11 hitters who have enjoyed the most sizable improvement in strikeout rate versus last season. If sustained, there’s a good chance that each of the hitters produce a sweet profit for their owners. On the other side of the coin are the hitters whose strikeout rates have increased the most. This is the danger zone. Let’s dive in.
Hitter Strikeout Rate Improvers
April 25, 2016
Last week, Eno discussed swing rate and ground ball rate changers as we finally started hitting the stabilization points of certain offensive metrics. Now, many hitters have reached the point at which strikeout rate become reliable, which has been found to be at 60 plate appearances. Obviously, all else being equal, a better strikeout rate will lead to better results. More balls in play equals a higher batting average, more home runs, and additional opportunities to drive in and score runs, and steal bases. So who has improved their strikeout rates the most so far compared to 2015?
Chris Archer Needs Target Practice
April 22, 2016
After a breakout 2015 campaign (2014 wasn’t a legit breakout, as it required a 6.9% HR/FB rate), this was not the start Chris Archer owners were expecting. He has posted an ugly 7.32 ERA and a rather hilarious 2.08 WHIP. That’s not a typo — his WHIP is above 2.00! It has only been four starts, but since he has already allowed six runs in half of them, it’s logical that there would be some concern. So let’s try to figure out what, if anything, is wrong.
Oswaldo Arcia & Trevor May: Deep League Waiver Wire
April 20, 2016
Somehow, this became an all-Twins edition of the deep league waiver wire. It wasn’t intended that way, but it does support the idea that struggling teams produce more waiver wire gems as they move around the deck chairs and try to figure out what setup leads to better performance.
12 Average Exit Velocity Surgers
April 19, 2016
Exit Velocity! It’s all the rage now. And it should be. With just one season’s worth of incomplete data, we’re still trying to figure out what it all means. You’re familiar with my xHR/FB rate metric, right? That equation uses a hitter’s batted ball distance to determine what his HR/FB rate “should have” been. Unfortunately, batted ball distance is a result and the goal for any metrics I develop is to use metric that represent underlying skills. Exit velocity is that underlying skill. The hope is that it will eventually replace batted ball distance in my equation.
