It’s pitching time! After comparing my hitter projections to Steamer, let’s now check in on the pitchers. I’ll start by comparing starting pitcher ERA from my Pod Projections with Steamer. I have decided to only list and discuss pitchers I have projected for a sub-4.00 ERA. Do you really care if I project a pitcher for a 4.40 ERA versus 5.50 by Steamer? Nope. I also left out two free agents, Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb, who would have made this list.

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Last Thursday, I highlighted nine hitters my Pod Projections suggested enjoyed stolen base upside when compared to Steamer projections. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters who my forecasts hint at downside versus Steamer.

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Today we continue our comparison of my Pod Projections with Steamer projections. This time I’m going to check in on stolen bases and begin by identifying nine hitters that I’m projecting for a lower PA/SB rate. Stolen bases totals are primarily fueled by three factors — on base percentage (which itself is driven by a variety of components), how often the player attempts a steal once he reaches base, and how successful he is when attempting a theft. With so many moving parts, it’s sometimes very difficult to forecast stolen bases, especially for certain types of players, like the big sluggers who suddenly decide to run (Manny Machado in 2015 and Bryce Harper in 2016).

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Yesterday, I discussed nine hitters that my Pod Projections forecast for a lower AB/HR ratio than Steamer, giving them home run upside, in my opinion. Today, I’ll check in on a group of hitters I see as possessing significant downside compared with Steamer.

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Last year, I transformed my series pitting my Pod Projections against Steamer projections into a categorical comparison. I’m going to continue that this year, but instead of comparing counting stats extrapolated over my plate appearance projection, I’m going to go straight to ratios. As an ardent supporter of ratios over counting stats, I have no idea why I didn’t do this to begin with!

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The 2018 Pod Projections are now available! For the first time, the package includes NFBC ADP, along with all historical Pod-developed xMetrics. My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve (thanks Statcast!).

2018 Pod Projections Index:
Shohei Ohtani

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Today marks the end of xBABIP week, after I shared and discussed 11 hitters potentially due for a BABIP surge and 10 hitters at risk of dramatic decline over the last two days. Today I’ll check in on hitters that at first glance, wouldn’t appear to be far off from their xBABIP marks, while the surgers and decliners list were quite a bit more obvious. If you posted a .230 BABIP in 2017, you’re probably going to find yourself on a potential surger list, while a .380 BABIP is likely going to get you onto the decliner list.

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Yesterday, I used my xBABIP equation to identify and discuss 11 hitters who might be in for a BABIP surge this season. Today, I’ll move on to the other side of the ledger — those hitters whose xBABIP marks were significantly below their actual BABIP marks, suggesting serious downside this year.

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A year ago, I introduced the latest and greatest version of my hitter xBABIP equation, this time incorporating shift data. Even though it was leaps ahead of any previous iterations and attempts at an xBABIP equation, it still only resulted in an adjusted R-squared of 0.5377. There’s still a whole lot more work to be done here! I would have liked to spend some time doing more research in the hopes of unveiling a further improved equation before the season begins, but alas, I haven’t had the time.

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The introductory section below is going to be similar to previous LABR recaps since little has changed and there’s no sense in rewording things.

The clearest sign of a new baseball season is the annual super early LABR Mixed draft. Last Tuesday, 15 of us fantasy nerds virtually gathered to speculate where the swath of still-free agents will sign and hope our early picks don’t suffer spring training injuries. Though I’m certainly not a fan of February drafts, at least it provides me the needed motivation to finish my first run of Pod Projections that drive my player values. Without the forecasts and valuation spreadsheet, I’d be drafting blind, and that’s no blueprint for a Yoo-hoo shower.

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