Pod vs Steamer — ERA Upside

It’s pitching time! After comparing my hitter projections to Steamer, let’s now check in on the pitchers. I’ll start by comparing starting pitcher ERA from my Pod Projections with Steamer. I have decided to only list and discuss pitchers I have projected for a sub-4.00 ERA. Do you really care if I project a pitcher for a 4.40 ERA versus 5.50 by Steamer? Nope. I also left out two free agents, Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb, who would have made this list.

Before diving into the ERA comparison, let me remind you about Steamer’s pitcher projections. They are the best. They correctly regress the luck metrics to the mean and ERA forecasts are therefore driven primarily by the underlying skills. However, sometimes that regression is applied too heavily to pitchers who have displayed real outlier skills, such as suppressing BABIP. Steamer would routinely get Chris Young and Matt Cain wrong because the system throws the baby out with the bath water. The vast majority of the time, Steamer will be right and the good (or bad) fortune will be proven with results closer to league average the following year. But there are always exceptions and any computer system is going to struggle with those.

So let’s see if any pitchers on this list fall into the outlier skills category or if there’s another explanation for the ERA projection gap.

I would have never guessed that my Taijuan Walker projection was so bullish. Then again, this appears to be another Arizona Humidor thing. I lower all Diamondbacks pitchers’ BABIP and HR/FB rates by a small amount, which probably shaved around 0.15 off ERA. But I don’t remember for sure. Zack Greinke is likely a similar explanation. Another driver of the Walker ERA gap is our strikeout rate projections. Mine is 1.3% higher than Steamer, which is rather significant. I believe that his stuff should really be leading to better strikeout rates.

Our K%-BB% marks aren’t far off for Ervin Santana, so it’s all about the BABIP and, oddly, his LOB%. Steamer is projecting a .296 BABIP, which Santana has only reached once since 2010. The LOB% appears even more baffling, as their 70% projection would be just the second time it has sat below 71.6% since 2008! I’m no Santana fan, but this forecast looks crazy.

Assuming health, Andrew Triggs is your first true sleeper. There’s a huge discrepancy between our strikeout rate projections, but his strike type components hint at 20%+ strikeout rate skills. Oh, and he also generates an above average rate of grounders, which is key in this home run happy environment.

Welcome Kyle Hendricks, you are the first player that fits the Cain mold of breaking computer system projections. Despite just an average strikeout rate, he has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in his short career. Although there’s nothing in his batted ball profile to explain it, his BABIP has remained consistently better than the league average, and he has been quite adept at stranding runners. Steamer isn’t buying it. It’s projecting his strikeout rate to collapse below 20%, likely due to his mid-80s fastball, which was down a couple of ticks from previous seasons.

Sean Manaea is another sleeper of sorts, and I’ve discussed him as one of nine strikeout rate surgers this year, as well as put my money where my mouth is by drafting him in LABR Mixed. Steamer is projecting his strikeout rate to drop below 20%, but a strong changeup-slider combo would argue that this is too pessimistic. This is especially true when perusing his elite minor league strikeout rates.

Our Brandon McCarthy metric projections are mostly pretty close, though Steamer is forecasting a significantly higher walk rate than I am. If you throw out his 2016 when he was recovering from TJ Surgery, he hasn’t posted a walk rate above 7% since 2009! For as long as he remains healthy, he’s a nice buy in NL-Only leagues.

Well this is a shock. I’m not a Michael Fulmer fan, but that’s because he has continued to outperform his peripherals. But there’s the rub – it takes a lot for Steamer to believe a pitcher owns true peripheral beating skills. As it should. Steamer is actually projecting Fulmer to post an above league average BABIP, while I’m acknowledging there’s a slight possibility his BABIP suppression is a true skill. Another difference is a better strikeout rate from Pod, as he possesses the repertoire of a strikeout pitcher with a solid slider and changeup and mid-90s fastball.

Ahhhh Sonny Gray, back to his SIERA-beating ways after taking a break in 2016. Steamer doesn’t believe in the strikeout rate spike, despite the fact that his stuff was better than ever before, as his SwStk% surged into the low teens. And the system clearly doesn’t believe he owns BABIP suppression skills as it forecasts an above league average mark, even though he owns a .276 career mark.

Nate Karns is mostly a crapshoot given that he’s returning from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. And we saw how that has really crushed careers of several pitchers who suffered through it in past seasons. But Steamer isn’t even aware of the surgery and still forecasts serious regression in his strikeout rate. I will admit that how he’s throwing in spring will help me decide whether to keep my strikeout rate forecast or lower it. The caveat to my projection is it assumes good health.

Another season, another projection doubting Rich Hill. Steamer is projecting dramatic regression in his strikeout rate since his resurgence in 2015. That’s in addition to a LOB% far below what he has posted in recent seasons. Sure, at age 38, it’s possible everything falls apart. But there’s absolutely nothing to indicate that the collapse is coming this season.