The crux of the fantasy season is looming, and decisions need to be made as we push to the playoffs. In one league currently, my shortstop position is in need of a jolt, and with a playoff spot already secured, time is running out to get aggressive and make a move. While Otto Lopez and Colson Montgomery have served me well for the majority of the season, the data is saying an aggressive move is required. Lopez, whose bat was running hot pre-All-Star break, has cooled, and even his .259 xwOBA says the bat isn’t good enough to wait on at this stage of the season. And Montgomery has no luck gap at all, with his results matching his .237 xwOBA.

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The sweeper seems to be a pitch that has taken on a life of its own over the past few seasons. More horizontal movement generated by sacrificing velocity (generally). But maybe it doesn’t have to be that way. With an average velocity a couple ticks below the traditional slider (85-86 mph), a sweeper usually sits at 82 to 83 mph. But it has become a powerful weapon and a popular pitch to add to pitch arsenals for those looking for an added swing-and-miss pitch.

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Discipline at the plate is often a huge driver for success over the course of a season. From a fantasy perspective, it can be difficult to utilize outside of just an overall gauge for a hitter’s success.

I saw an interesting exchange on plate discipline data relating to zone and outside zone swing percentages as an indicator for a potential breakout. A post highlighting patience as the potential reason behind Pete Crow-Armstrong’s MVP-caliber season noted his O-Swing% is down to a career low 34%. Read the rest of this entry »

Following on from looking at those who have managed to increase the velocity on their four-seamer since the start of the season, it is now time to turn to those losing velocity. Some have not been so fortunate. Whether through wear and tear or potential injuries, these pitchers warrant serious monitoring and potential red flags as we move forward.

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In the heat of summer, it is always interesting to track pitchers who have gained velocity and who are losing velocity, and what the impact is on their results. While velocity alone does not guarantee success, meaningful changes often coincide with adjustments in command, pitch quality, or overall effectiveness. Identifying those trends mid-season can be a very useful indicator to see if a pitcher could strengthen as the season goes on or decline. This piece will look at those hopefully strengthening in the summer.

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Following on from the hitters chart, we now look at how pitchers have performed so far this year against their OOPSY rest-of-season (RoS) projections.

Continuing with the framework of the hitters’ piece, this will first look at those with projected ERA rises, then at those with projected ERA drops. Just as we identified BABIP and ISO as the major determining factors in the hitters’ RoS outlooks, we will identify a similar through line here: for pitchers, it is largely strand rate.

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As we enter the heat of the post-All-Star break summer, it is a natural point for both reflection and action for our fantasy squads moving forward. This chart plots first-half wOBA against OOPSY’s rest-of-season projection (RoS); the pitching chart will be coming soon. It is a useful way to see the discrepancy between how some hitters have performed and what OOPSY expects for the rest of the season, and to discuss why regression is being projected, and in some cases why it isn’t, across the league.

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Building on the bat speed piece from last week, I wanted to explore some deep-cut young finds based on swing length, blast contact rates, and all the rest. It turns out that if you swing fast, swing fast often, and make consistent contact, you are already highly valued, not just in fantasy but in baseball. Sorting these different metrics gives you a pretty similar list of names at the top of a chart.

For the first piece, I intentionally stuck to bat tracking metrics as much as possible, rather than outcomes, to compare the mechanical profiles of young hitters and to see whether we can use that on its own to predict future success. The problem is that the swing data on its own cannot tell the difference between an MVP candidate and a prospect who has been overmatched. Pete Crow-Armstrong sits in the same neighborhood as Marcelo Mayer, and no amount of bat speed or blast rate separates them.

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Right now, the Major League level seems about as full of young talent as it ever has been. High-profile prospects are more prepared than ever to make the leap, skipping past the slow grind of the minor leagues to make an immediate impact at the big-league level. This season, Kevin McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt have proven it: the former made the All-Star roster, and the latter absolutely should have been included.

Of course, bat speed is not a guarantee of success. The two examples I gave, McGonigle and Wetherholt, have both had great success without elite bat speed, sitting right around league average in the metric. But as indicators go, it can be a useful one. As we can see from the top end of this chart, bat speed can give you a strong platform to build on.

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