First-Half ERA vs OOPSY’s Rest-of-Season Projections

Following on from the hitters chart, we now look at how pitchers have performed so far this year against their OOPSY rest-of-season (RoS) projections.

Continuing with the framework of the hitters’ piece, this will first look at those with projected ERA rises, then at those with projected ERA drops. Just as we identified BABIP and ISO as the major determining factors in the hitters’ RoS outlooks, we will identify a similar through line here: for pitchers, it is largely strand rate.

The chart has ERA reversed, so the lower the ERA, the further up and to the right the dot sits, and whether a pitcher falls above or below the reference line tells you if OOPSY expects an improvement or a decline the rest of the way. In the tooltip, I have included their first half xERA and FIP for contextual purposes, as well as the LOB% and strikeouts per 9, as these will be referred to throughout the piece for varying reasons. So let’s dive in.

Similar to how inflated BABIPs really jumped out on the hitter side of things, for pitching, we can see a similar trend through above-average left-on-base percentage (LOB%), which is the percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base. This can be a useful indicator of luck because while it’s not converting into results that affect the ERA, it indicates hitters are getting on base, and over time, they will generally start converting into runs over the course of the season. Similarly, a below-average LOB% will usually indicate that a pitcher has been unlucky relative to the average. The league average so far for 2026 is 74%.

Immediately, a few names jump out from the list of pitchers who are projected to have a rise in their ERA. Of these ten pitchers, only two have an LOB% below 80%. The two that are most concerning are the first and third names. Rodriguez and Martinez are both running an LOB% above 85% and are among the lowest K/9 in the group, with only McGreevy joining them under 6.5. The 0.66 gap between Rodriguez in first and Ureña in second is striking. Despite an ERA of 2.29, Rodriguez has an xERA of 5.06, and his LOB% and BABIP both help explain why the results are not indicative of how he has pitched. And Martinez simply needs to strike out more batters; he is currently in the bottom 5th percentile.

Ureña, in the middle of these two in the table, has a low LOB% comparatively and a decent K/9 ratio, but his issues currently stem from walks. The ceiling is obviously there, and I think he is a good long-term fantasy option in dynasty formats. The problem is that right now, he has the profile of a ground-ball, induce weak-contact kind of pitcher, but he cannot command his pitches.

Wheeler has the highest LOB% of the group, but he is not higher risk for regression because he has an elite 10.5 K/9, and still maintained a low xERA despite the LOB%. Don’t expect him to maintain his 2.13 ERA, but he is still absolutely an elite pitcher. Schlittler similarly had an ERA in the low 2s that was just not sustainable, but is still expected to be one of the best pitchers in the league.

It is worth noting that a high LOB% on its own is not enough to trigger a projected regression. Cristopher Sanchez, Jacob deGrom, and Taj Bradley are all stranding runners at 79% or better, right up with the names above, and OOPSY moves them barely at all. Sanchez goes from 2.62 to 2.95, Bradley from 3.59 to 3.83, and deGrom is actually projected to improve slightly, from 3.49 to 3.32. The difference is the strikeouts. All three sit above 10 K/9, and striking out hitters removes any variables that come from putting balls in play. So when the swing-and-miss is there, the model treats the high LOB% as earned rather than lucky. Sanchez is the clearest example, carrying a .333 BABIP alongside that 81.5% strand rate, so if anything, he has been unlucky on balls in play while stranding what he allows.

Now, the reverse. Of the ten pitchers with the largest differential between their first-half ERA and improved RoS OOPSY projected ERA, eight of the ten have an LOB% below 70%, well below the 74% average.

Two Mariner pitchers, Woo and Castillo, both more than 10 points below the average LOB%, are projected to fare much better the rest of the season. Woo, in particular, with an xERA of 3.51 and a FIP of 3.05, would seem to have been pretty ‘unlucky’ in terms of pure outcomes, but it comes with the caveat of his troubles on the road.

Dustin May and Reid Detmers are two other names that have been well below average in LOB%. May has been hit by both ends of it, a 64.5% strand rate and a .317 BABIP against a .284 average, which has left him with a 4.55 ERA despite a 3.26 FIP. Detmers has proven to be a great asset in 2026, particularly through his ability to miss bats, putting up 10.2 K/9, but as with all Angels pitchers, he’s not going to give you much in the W/L column.

Emmet Sheehan, Jack Flaherty, and MacKenzie Gore have also shown their upside to punch guys out, and OOPSY is projecting them to have a much stronger end to the season. Gore is certainly one I was high on coming into the season and targeted at the back end of my drafts, given his ability and the park he was moving to, so I am hoping he will be able to turn things around.

The one that really jumps off the list, though, is Paul Skenes. A drop in velocity and a rising ERA in the 3s led to a lot of discussion in fantasy circles that he had become a tradeable asset. I was always of the opinion that if Skenes, for some reason, became available in a league, he would be the perfect buy-low. When that kind of premium asset becomes available, particularly in dynasty and keeper leagues, it is hard to pass up that kind of opportunity. Unfortunately, I was never in that position myself. The OOPSY projection would agree with me, and he should perform a lot better in the summer months, given his xERA of 2.72, 2.88 FIP, and a 10.8 K/9 ratio. Expect a bounce back from one of the league’s elite starters.