Schedule Tracker: Best and Worst Matchups Til’ the End

The tracker is back, running from now until the end of the season, so we can identify which teams have favorable groups of fixtures to stream for fantasy. At this stage of the fantasy season, identifying these stretches of games that have targetable hitters or pitchers could be the difference. I will link here the first iteration of the tracker that I made through the end of August, with a more comprehensive breakdown, but the chart has a tab for both hitters and pitchers.

Each fixture is assigned a difficulty score between 0-100 for either hitters or pitchers, with 100 being the most difficult. This score is based on a combination of how tough the opposing lineup or pitching staff is and the park factor. If you hover over a fixture, you can see the opposition’s FIP or wRC+, and the park factor that contribute to the overall rating.

What has changed since the last version I made is that I have weighted the data contributing to the score to also include data specifically from the post-All-Star break, so we can see how much form plays into it, while still balancing against the data from the whole season. Remember these are also home/road splits, so specifically their home stats if they’re hosting the series, or their road stats if they’re traveling. Again, this does not factor probable starters, handedness, or any specific pitching matchups; rather than the unit as a whole. To cross-check that, please refer to the FanGraphs probable starters page. The Atlanta Braves and the San Francisco Giants have an extra series that they will play in the last week of the season, hence the bigger overlap between series 10 and 11, so they have two series put into the same cell, scrollable horizontally for series 8-11.

Hitting

Given their recent offensive struggles, the Dodgers will be grateful for their soft schedule to end the year. Even beyond the next five, where they face soft pitching across the board, PIT (4.12 FIP), STL (4.48), and WSN (4.73), they have a nice run of green until the end, particularly at home. Look to trust your Dodger hitters even if they have not been firing as of late. Almost matching the Dodgers’ average hitting score is Colorado; this is not surprising given the Coors factor, but they also have some favorable pitching matchups against St. Louis and Baltimore, and a good run of four green longer-term fixtures after series seven to ten.

Atlanta, given their matchups against the aforementioned Rockies and Dodgers at two hitter-friendly parks, also have a great run. These are two pitching units out of form that an elite lineup will look to match up well against once they get that tough matchup against the Brewers out of the way. Detroit and Miami are two teams with a mixed long-term outlook, but definitely have some favorable matchups in the next five, particularly for Miami and their two matchups against Washington’s pitching.

Anyone unfortunate enough to be relying on Angel bats at this stage of the season, look away now. A sea of dark red approaches, with all five of the next five series getting a dark red color. And it doesn’t get easier from there, with a trip against a tough Boston unit and two series against Seattle, who, despite their offensive struggles, have still pitched well. Speaking of Seattle, following their current series against the best team in baseball, Milwaukee, it doesn’t get any easier, as they face Chicago, whose pitching they may be able to get after, but then followed by three tough matchups for their hitters with Philadelphia, Toronto, and Boston. But with over a 20-point gap between first and second, the Angels absolutely have the worst go of it.

Seattle, however, once you get through this red patch, have arguably the best run of games from series 6 through to 11. The Yankees, given the depth of their offense and strength at home, I wouldn’t be too concerned about, given they have three series at Yankee Stadium in the next five. The challenging series against Boston and in Anaheim are holding down their score, but no one would be surprised if they were able to get after the Angels even if they have pitched well at home. Texas hitters will have a rough time between now and the end of the year, and it makes any wildcard push for them seem tricky, given they have to go through Milwaukee, the White Sox, Tampa, Boston, and a division matchup in Seattle. Would not be looking to pick up any Ranger bats that might be available.

Pitching

San Diego are interesting as they have a difficult run from a hitters perspective, but a great window to start pitchers. Facing a stream of weak offenses, PIT (88.3 wRC+), CIN (87.8), MIN (96.0), and then, to top it off, is NYY, who offensively have had a 58 wRC+ in the second half since the All-Star break. Cleveland is similar: even with an away series at Coors in the mix, a run facing LAA, KCR, and TOR makes it a great chance to play your Cleveland arms.

The Angels’ third spot is again driven by their form at home, and a series in Texas, one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league. Milwaukee are unsurprisingly on this list given how good their pitching has been all year, and face some weaker offenses, in NYM, TEX, and CIN. Atlanta as well have pretty strong splits, and offensively are much stronger at home.

Here, the gap between the top five toughest pitching schedules is less than the gap between San Diego and Cleveland in the best pitching schedules, with just 5.6 points separating the top 5. Minnesota’s score is being killed by the trip to Sutter Health Park, which features three of the five teams here, but also a pair of sets against a tough White Sox lineup and a trip to Detroit. Colorado, even with only two games at home, provides a naturally tough run for pitchers, although I can’t imagine there is much fantasy relevance there.

For Miami, while the ballpark gives a soft matchup against Washington, they face Washington twice in the space of three series, with Boston sandwiched in between, meaning pitching will be tough. Miami arms are also in a spot where they are rostered but could also be dispensable depending on your pitching depth. Baltimore has a balance of facing strong lineups in Tampa Bay and Boston while also going to the two biggest hitter-friendly parks in the league in Sacramento and Colorado.