In a points format with a games cap, like Ottoneu, you win by a) scoring the most points per game and b) making sure to use up all your games. That’s an oversimplification but it is also fairly accurate. And so while I often used stats like wOBA as a proxy for player value in Ottoneu points league, at the end of the day, their value is best reflected in their points/game (P/G).

Kind of. P/G misses one key element and it can help you find underappreciated bats to add to your roster.

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Back in March, I shared my annual look at the players most likely to be found on my Ottoneu rosters, focusing on six players who were on four or more of my seven teams. This year I was interested to see how my rosters changed by the end of the season. So I redid the exercise of totalling up the players on my rosters to see where things shook out.

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Yesterday, Lucas Kelly shared three lessons he learned playing Ottoneu this year, leading off with “Reach your maximums!” Lucas showed that the teams that finished atop the standings in league 184 did so, at least in part, by making sure they reached 162 games played at each position and 1500 IP.

This sparked an interesting discussion in Ottoneu slack around hitting those caps, including questions of just how important it is and how much hitting your caps is a result of being a contender (because contenders actively try to maximize points while rebuilders might be less engaged) vs. a cause of being a contender. And we got some very interesting data as a result.

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The Ottoneu off-season has already commenced, as the first steps to turn the calendar to 2024 are underway. Over the off-season, we will continue to provide Ottoneu content, including some season recaps of what went right and wrong for our teams. But today, I want to look at positional eligibility.

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You’ve pushed through six months of baseball. You have set your lineups daily (or almost daily, or weekly, or something). You have bid on more auctions than you can count. And here you are, six days of baseball remaining until we hit the off-season, and you are wondering what to do now.

That depends a lot on where you are in the standings but there are a few things to keep in mind as you enjoy this final week of fantasy baseball.

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Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Gregory Santos, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 22.12%

Santos has, at times, looked like the best reliever in the White Sox pen and while that isn’t all that impressive, it does mean he has had a chance for saves and holds on a regular basis. That wasn’t enough to make him “good” (6.06 P/IP for a RP) but it was enough to make him rosterable. Until mid-August he was closer to 6.5 P/IP, but over a one-month period, he put up 34.57 points over 9.1 IP. That is both a relatively limited work-load and a well-below-replacement-level P/IP. That rough stretch coincided with a pretty clear drop in his velocity and ended with an IL stint.

Mediocre numbers followed by bad numbers followed by an injury is a recipe for a reliever to be cut and he should be cut everywhere. He isn’t good enough to keep and he is probably only a “buy” in auctions next year if he either starts off well or has a nice jump in velocity (or both).

Hunter Renfroe, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 21.79%

Renfroe wasn’t having a great season for the Angels and they put him on waivers. The Reds claimed him and, to be honest, I hoped that would be a nice landing spot for him. Instead, over 17 days he got 44 PA and posted a 17 wRC+ and the Reds cut him loose. Renfroe turns 32 this off-season and came into this year with two very solid offensive years in 2021 and 2022, so you would imagine he lands somewhere for 2024, but as a fantasy manager, I think I am staying away.

He had a bit of an odd season. His BB-rate was higher than those two strong years and his K-rate was almost perfectly in-line with those two years, despite the fact that he was more aggressive at the plate (chasing more and swinging in the zone more), didn’t make more contact, and ran a higher swinging-strike rate. That success with his plate discipline didn’t lead to success overall because his power dried up. After averaging 30 HR and .239 ISO in 547 PA the last two seasons, this year he hit 20 HR with a .183 ISO in 548 PA. His hard-hit and barrel rates both decreased, and he decreased his fly-ball rate, as well, hitting more grounders instead. He used to punish fastballs, and that wasn’t the case this year. You can see this in his Baseball Savant Swing/Take profile: last year he was +19 runs on pitches he took and this year he was +17 (not a huge shift), but on his swings he went from -13 runs to -26. Part of that is just that he swung more, but the bigger issue is he simply didn’t punish the ball when he swung. This was almost entirely in the “Shadow” zone – pitches around the edge of the strike zone – where he swung a bit more and was far less successful. In 2022, his wOBA on contact in the shadow zone was .357 with a .319 xwOBA. This year it was .267 with a .265 xwOBA.

This all looks to me like a guy losing bat speed, making more aggressive swing choices to make up for that, and not being able to create the quality of contact he expects. That’s not something I want to buy in on.

Alex Cobb, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Cobb threw an absolute gem against Cincinnati, then made three horrific starts and hit the IL. He just hasn’t been good enough to keep around through an IL stint, but he will assuredly show up on rosters again next year. He always does enough to tantalize.

Colin Holderman, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Holderman is an easy one – he has been a decently good but not-great RP and now he is hurt. No need to holderhim.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Sean Murphy,  -0.83 P/G:

Sean Murphy has done wonderful things for fantasy teams all year but over the last couple of weeks, it has been ugly. I am not sure if I am more concerned about the -5 points or the fact that he has made just six appearances, but neither is good. Though it is worth nothing that because I am writing this on Sunday night, his Sunday afternoon home run hasn’t hit these numbers yet and would certainly help. But no matter how you look at it, Murphy has been so bad in September that it has tanked his entire second half line. For now, there isn’t much you can do. If you have a backup C you like, you may need to use him more to fill out games played, as Murphy is clearly being given plenty of rest ahead of the post-season. But other than that, you just have to ride through this because Murphy is a legitimately elite C and you probably want to keep him for 2024.

C.J. Cron, -4.00 P/G:

Is this cheating, given he played just one game? Yes, it kind of is. But Cron came to LA, got hurt, played one game, and got hurt again. But even around that, he was not good in Colorado this year and he was putrid with the Angels. He’s an easy cut, at any price, right now, and going into 2024, he isn’t more than a late-draft flyer, and that assumes he has a starting job somewhere.

Jon Gray,  -4.04 P/IP:

Holy smokes, Gray tanked his season in a hurry. As of the end of August, Gray had 137.2 IP and put up 547.59 points for 3.98 P/IP. That isn’t good, but it is bordering on useful especially if you can play matchups with him. An abysmal September, especially his last three starts, has him at 3.75 P/IP on the year. He’s not only played his way into being an easy cut today, I think he is going to be hard to roster next year.

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

JoJo Romero, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 33.01%

While a low LOB% helped push his ERA up to 3.68, Romero looked great during his 36.2 IP with St. Louis this year. Among pitchers with 30+ IP as a reliever, Romero had a top-15 ground ball rate, top-25 IFFB rate, and top-60 K% and BB%. None of that is elite, but it adds up to a really good reliever who established himself as a late-inning arm for the Cards. But with an injured knee that landed him on the IL for most of the rest of the season, he became a roster casualty for a lot of teams, including mine.

That said, I am impressed with what he has done and he is staying on my watchlists. If he comes back, I will try to pick him up again. If not, I might still grab him in the final days of the season – if I can add him now for $1-$2 and he looks likely to be the Cardinal closer in January, he is going to be an easy keep.

Julio Urías, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 32.05%

We covered him last week and there isn’t much more to say. He is under 60% rostered and that should keep going down.

Andrew McCutchen, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 26.60%

Back home in Pittsburgh, Cutch was having a resurgent season, posting 5.24 P/G and making him a very useful OF bat for Ottoneu leagues. Now a partially torn Achilles tendon has ended his season and it is hard to get excited about keeping him, even given how he performed this year. He really wasn’t useful from 2020-2022 and now he has to overcome a pretty serious injury just weeks before he turns 37 years old. That will raise questions of retirement, though at 299 career homers and coming off a solid season, I expect he will sign another one-year deal with the Pirates. And I might check him out for a dollar at the end of auctions.

Luis Severino, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 19.23%

Severino at his best was so, so good, and now you just wonder if we will ever get to see that again. He turns 30 before the start of next season, and his 2023 is now over thanks to an oblique strain. To give you a sense of just how snake-bitten his career has been, Severino’s reaction to the injury included him saying, “I’m happy it’s not going to take a full year or two [to recover],” as reported by Peter Sblendorio of the NY Daily News. It’s not great when your reaction to a season-ending injury is, “well at least this time I didn’t lose NEXT season as well.” He’s an easy cut, given how poorly he was pitching before getting hurt. If you are drafting later in draft season and he has looked good in spring, I could see taking a flyer on him, but the risk is high and the reward is probably not what it once was.

James Paxton, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 18.59%

Last week I speculated that he might have just run out of gas and that Red Sox have now shut him down for the year due to right knee inflammation. He’s a bit like Severino, in that he isn’t a guy you can rely on enough to want to keep him, but I am much more interested in him come March, at least based on what we know right now. This doesn’t sound like a serious injury and so there is reason to believe he can be ready for the start of 2024. I again wouldn’t want to count on him for a full season, but could he go more like 100 innings next year? Maybe.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Brett Baty, -0.33 P/G:

I was a big Baty believer but this year has been ugly and it isn’t getting better. Baty was given a real shot to claim the 3B job early in the season and struggled – much like he did last year before being sent down in August. He was back on September 1, but the performance has only gotten worse. Baty appears to have a power hitter’s plate discipline – decent walks but a lot of strikeouts – but he isn’t punishing the ball enough to make that work. That’s what made things go for him in the minors, and until he finds some real pop, he won’t be playable in the bigs.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Julio Urías, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 20.19%

Urías is not traveling with the Dodgers after being arrested on a domestic violence charge. Unfortunately, this is not the first such issue for the pitcher, as he was suspended 20 games for a similar 2019 arrest. In that 2019 case, the woman involved claimed she fell despite witnesses saying they saw Urías shove her (and video supposedly backing up those witness reports). Urías is not with the team while they (and the police and presumably the league) are investigating. Given his history, I think it is a safe bet that Urías is done for the year. The Dodgers seem to be distancing themselves from him already and the league is unlikely to let this go unpunished.

For what it’s worth, Urías’s 20-game suspension is one of the shortest in recent history under MLB’s Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy. Marcell Ozuna was also suspended 20 games in 2021, but the other nine cases since the start of the 2018 season have all been 40+ games. Unless this proves to be a misunderstanding (which I would bet against), Urías could be out a good long time. I have him on one roster and he’s next in line to be cut.

Yu Darvish, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 17.63%

Darvish is hurt and has an unclear timeline for a return to action, which is enough to justify a cut this late in the year. But it’s also worth noting that Darvish just hasn’t been very good this year. The one-time ace has been on a roller coaster since the 2018 season and just celebrated his 37th birthday. His average salary is north of $20 and he hasn’t come close to earning that value this year. He’s not a keeper and he isn’t helping you this year, so there is no reason to hold onto him.

Jurickson Profar, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Profar was decent for the Padres last year, but had a hard time finding a landing spot for 2023. When he signed with the Rockies fantasy managers rejoiced but we got the wrong kind of rocky season – a 71 wRC+ and 4.03 P/G. He was useful in Coors but even there he was only useful and not much more. That made him tough to roster. Now he has been cut loose and landed on a minor league deal with the Padres. San Diego might have need of him, but I don’t love his chances to have a real impact.

If he gets a call and regular playing time (the first a small-ish “if,” the second rather large, I think), he could be a dart-throw type pick up just to see if he can catch fire for a couple of weeks and help you in the stretch run. But he isn’t really more than that – even if you get him for $1, I can’t see keeping him for $3, and there is a good chance he plays sparingly the rest of the way, anyway.

James Paxton, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Paxton was a fun resurgence story earlier this year, but things have gone very wrong lately. His last three starts have netted him -38.46 points and while you could blame the Astro and Dodger offenses for that, the bulk of those lost points came in a -33.76 point outing at Kansas City.

Earlier this year, I suggested he might do well, but “I would expect him to only throw another 50-75 IP the rest of way, if things go pretty well. The smart money would be on less than that.” He ended July with 70 total innings, a 3.34 ERA and 3.59 FIP. Since then, he has a 7.62 ERA and 7.64 FIP in 26 IP. His fastball is almost 1 mph slower in August and September vs. earlier in the year. He may have managed to stay healthy, but it’s possible the innings are just catching up to him. He threw 44 innings from 2020-2022 combined, across all levels. It looks like he might be out of gas.

Josh Sborz Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Sborz was a hot pickup earlier this year, but after putting up negative points in five of his last six outings, he hit the IL. He now has just 5.8 P/IP on the season, which is actually the best season of his career. But it is still a really bad number for a reliever. Sub-6.0 RP don’t need to be rostered. Injured RP usually don’t need to be rostered. Injured with sub-6.0 P/IP should be 0% rostered. Sborz is still rostered in over a third of leagues. That should change.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Alek Thomas, 0.08 P/G:

Thomas was once a highly-regarded prospect and I have continued to buy in on a post-hype breakout. And I thought we might have had it! From May 6 through August 25, he seemed to have figured things out and was posting a 112 wRC+. It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows as he was walking just 3.3% of the time and was relying on a .354 BABIP to get to that number, but it gave me hope. That hope has evaporated the last couple of weeks. If he gets it going again by the end of the year, maybe I will get back on the Alek-wagon in the off-season, but I think I am probably off for good.

Nolan Arenado, 0.10 P/G:

I imagine many fantasy managers are frustrated with Arenado lately and I suspect he is pretty frustrated, as well. Over the last ten games, Arenado has been walking at a higher rate than his season line, striking out at a lower rate, and posting just atrocious results. Hello .147 BABIP. His hard-hit and barrel rates have tanked, as well, but it’s such a small sample that I assume it is just noise. Except, this stretch also coincides with a back issue. On August 25, Arenado left a game early with back tightness and it kind of looks like he hasn’t been the same, since. If you want to leave him on the bench until he puts together a couple of hard-hit balls, I wouldn’t blame you. I am more likely to just ride this out with him and trust that it’s only been a brief stretch of issues that won’t continue. Now, if you are debating what to do with Arenado in the off-season…that is a different question and I am not ready to wrestle with that yet.

Lucas Giolito,  -5.19 P/IP:

When Giolito was claimed by the Guardians there were two competing reactions:

1. The Guardians are a pitching-rich, pitching-smart organization that has seen Giolito as much as anyone over the last few years. They must see something in him that made them want to take a shot at fixing him.
2. The Guardians pitching has been crushed with injuries, they are relying on a bunch of kids whose arms they want to protect for the future, and they were just using Noah Syndergaard to plug a hole in the rotation. They just need an innings eater to eat innings.

Uh…maybe both were wrong? Giolito did not look fixed nor did he eat innings in his first start for Cleveland. Obviously that isn’t the entire story, but for now, you can let Giolito go.