Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Julio Urías, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 20.19%

Urías is not traveling with the Dodgers after being arrested on a domestic violence charge. Unfortunately, this is not the first such issue for the pitcher, as he was suspended 20 games for a similar 2019 arrest. In that 2019 case, the woman involved claimed she fell despite witnesses saying they saw Urías shove her (and video supposedly backing up those witness reports). Urías is not with the team while they (and the police and presumably the league) are investigating. Given his history, I think it is a safe bet that Urías is done for the year. The Dodgers seem to be distancing themselves from him already and the league is unlikely to let this go unpunished.

For what it’s worth, Urías’s 20-game suspension is one of the shortest in recent history under MLB’s Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy. Marcell Ozuna was also suspended 20 games in 2021, but the other nine cases since the start of the 2018 season have all been 40+ games. Unless this proves to be a misunderstanding (which I would bet against), Urías could be out a good long time. I have him on one roster and he’s next in line to be cut.

Yu Darvish, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 17.63%

Darvish is hurt and has an unclear timeline for a return to action, which is enough to justify a cut this late in the year. But it’s also worth noting that Darvish just hasn’t been very good this year. The one-time ace has been on a roller coaster since the 2018 season and just celebrated his 37th birthday. His average salary is north of $20 and he hasn’t come close to earning that value this year. He’s not a keeper and he isn’t helping you this year, so there is no reason to hold onto him.

Jurickson Profar, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Profar was decent for the Padres last year, but had a hard time finding a landing spot for 2023. When he signed with the Rockies fantasy managers rejoiced but we got the wrong kind of rocky season – a 71 wRC+ and 4.03 P/G. He was useful in Coors but even there he was only useful and not much more. That made him tough to roster. Now he has been cut loose and landed on a minor league deal with the Padres. San Diego might have need of him, but I don’t love his chances to have a real impact.

If he gets a call and regular playing time (the first a small-ish “if,” the second rather large, I think), he could be a dart-throw type pick up just to see if he can catch fire for a couple of weeks and help you in the stretch run. But he isn’t really more than that – even if you get him for $1, I can’t see keeping him for $3, and there is a good chance he plays sparingly the rest of the way, anyway.

James Paxton, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Paxton was a fun resurgence story earlier this year, but things have gone very wrong lately. His last three starts have netted him -38.46 points and while you could blame the Astro and Dodger offenses for that, the bulk of those lost points came in a -33.76 point outing at Kansas City.

Earlier this year, I suggested he might do well, but “I would expect him to only throw another 50-75 IP the rest of way, if things go pretty well. The smart money would be on less than that.” He ended July with 70 total innings, a 3.34 ERA and 3.59 FIP. Since then, he has a 7.62 ERA and 7.64 FIP in 26 IP. His fastball is almost 1 mph slower in August and September vs. earlier in the year. He may have managed to stay healthy, but it’s possible the innings are just catching up to him. He threw 44 innings from 2020-2022 combined, across all levels. It looks like he might be out of gas.

Josh Sborz Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Sborz was a hot pickup earlier this year, but after putting up negative points in five of his last six outings, he hit the IL. He now has just 5.8 P/IP on the season, which is actually the best season of his career. But it is still a really bad number for a reliever. Sub-6.0 RP don’t need to be rostered. Injured RP usually don’t need to be rostered. Injured with sub-6.0 P/IP should be 0% rostered. Sborz is still rostered in over a third of leagues. That should change.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Alek Thomas, 0.08 P/G:

Thomas was once a highly-regarded prospect and I have continued to buy in on a post-hype breakout. And I thought we might have had it! From May 6 through August 25, he seemed to have figured things out and was posting a 112 wRC+. It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows as he was walking just 3.3% of the time and was relying on a .354 BABIP to get to that number, but it gave me hope. That hope has evaporated the last couple of weeks. If he gets it going again by the end of the year, maybe I will get back on the Alek-wagon in the off-season, but I think I am probably off for good.

Nolan Arenado, 0.10 P/G:

I imagine many fantasy managers are frustrated with Arenado lately and I suspect he is pretty frustrated, as well. Over the last ten games, Arenado has been walking at a higher rate than his season line, striking out at a lower rate, and posting just atrocious results. Hello .147 BABIP. His hard-hit and barrel rates have tanked, as well, but it’s such a small sample that I assume it is just noise. Except, this stretch also coincides with a back issue. On August 25, Arenado left a game early with back tightness and it kind of looks like he hasn’t been the same, since. If you want to leave him on the bench until he puts together a couple of hard-hit balls, I wouldn’t blame you. I am more likely to just ride this out with him and trust that it’s only been a brief stretch of issues that won’t continue. Now, if you are debating what to do with Arenado in the off-season…that is a different question and I am not ready to wrestle with that yet.

Lucas Giolito,  -5.19 P/IP:

When Giolito was claimed by the Guardians there were two competing reactions:

1. The Guardians are a pitching-rich, pitching-smart organization that has seen Giolito as much as anyone over the last few years. They must see something in him that made them want to take a shot at fixing him.
2. The Guardians pitching has been crushed with injuries, they are relying on a bunch of kids whose arms they want to protect for the future, and they were just using Noah Syndergaard to plug a hole in the rotation. They just need an innings eater to eat innings.

Uh…maybe both were wrong? Giolito did not look fixed nor did he eat innings in his first start for Cleveland. Obviously that isn’t the entire story, but for now, you can let Giolito go.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Joey Votto, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 15.34%

Votto is one of the most likable players in the game and is one of the best offensive players of his generation, but he is also turning 40 in less than two weeks and hurt. He actually hasn’t performed poorly, though that is hard to see from the surface-level stats. A .328 wOBA from a 1B is nothing to write home about, but he had 13 HR (better than a 40-homer pace over a full season) and a .206 BABIP is severely hampering his OBP. His line drive rate is just 10.4% and he is hitting way too many grounders, but there is good reason to think that is unsustainable (in a good way) and he’ll hit more line drives (pulling up his BABIP and with it his AVG and OBP) when he comes back. He is expected to be activated in “early September.”

That all sounds like an endorsement to hold Votto, but I will probably end up cutting the one share I have as soon as I need a roster spot. He hasn’t been good or reliable enough to be a regular 1B or Util bat in Ottoneu, which means he is languishing on my bench even when healthy. If you are in need of a 1B when he comes back, he could be useful, so I could see adding him to a watchlist if he is a FA in your league, but there is no need to rush out to grab him.

Jake Cronenworth, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 14.06%

Cronenworth fractured his wrist when he was hit by a pitch and Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports that “he will be in a cast for several weeks and get imaging done after that.” That doesn’t bode well. Several weeks is basically the rest of the season. Which means the only reason to hold Cronenworth is if you think you have him cheap enough to justify keeping him for 2024.

You don’t. Cronenworth has been a pretty poor performer for fantasy this year and really was not much better last year. After his excellent 2021, he showed enough in 2022 to justify hope for this year, but that is gone now. Beyond the fantasy performance questions, it’s unclear to me if he’ll even have a starting job next year. He has a contract that you would think would keep him in the lineup, but the Padres infield is crowded and this offseason should be an interesting one for them. I think he is an easy cut and I don’t expect him to be a priority come 2024 auctions, either.

Stone Garrett, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 13.10%

Garrett’s season is over, as he was placed on the 60-day IL with less than 60 days before the Nats wrap up their 2023 campaign. Like Cronenworth, that means the only reason to hold him now is to keep him for 2024. Unlike Cronenworth, he is on the 60-day IL so he isn’t using up a roster spot, and the only reason to cut him is to save cash.

I liked Garrett before 2023 as a weak-side platoon OF. That role (and the lack of clarity on whether he would even have a chance to fill that role regularly) limited his value, but there was potential there for 40-60 really strong starts against LHP. And Garrett has delivered that, with a .354 wOBA vs. LHP. But he has surprised me with a .333 wOBA against RHP – not nearly as good but enough to be a viable back-end Ottoneu OF. If he keeps that up and has an everyday job, he is a nice bench option – start him against every LHP and have the option to use him when needed against righties. Not bad! But that line vs. RHP is inflated by a .387 BABIP. He still draws walks against righties, but he shows almost no power (2 HR in 129 PA and a .125 ISO).

If you don’t need the cap space, there is no harm in holding (or even adding) him to see what happens in the off-season, but the chances are he’s just a $1 guy.

Luis Medina, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 13.10%

Medina is the first of these players that I am pretty sure I don’t want to cut. The overall numbers are ugly, but he had an absolutely brilliant July. Ben Clemens dove into what drove that impressive run back on August 3, and while the results since then haven’t been as good, that article shows you there is a lot to like. He has a shot to be back from the IL as soon as this coming weekend and that would give him time to make a few more starts this year and provide us more data heading into the off-season. But right now, I think he is better than a lot of other options out there and there is good potential for him to be the kind of guy you can keep for $3-$6 instead of paying $8-$10 on him at auction when the hype machine starts up. It’s also possible he stinks in September and is an afterthought in January, but unless I really can’t afford to hold him on my roster, I would prefer to wait and see.

Emerson Hancock, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.78%

Hancock is a somewhat maddening prospect, as scouts love his stuff and he has flashed some really impressive performances but he has yet to consistently produce in the high minors (or the majors). He also skipped Double-A and is in a pitching-rich org that may not have a need for him in their April (or May, or June) rotation next year. In leagues where cap space is not at a premium, I am happy to hold him (or pick him up) and stash him, since he is on the 60-day. If we find out in January that he is slated for a rotation spot (either in Seattle or with another org following a trade), I think I will be happy to have held him and there is basically zero risk since you can just cut him in the off-season anyway.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Travis d’Arnaud, -1.67 P/G:

TdA was on fire early in the year, part of the most feared offensive catching tandem in the game. But he has been down since June 1, bad since July 1, and awful recently. It’s a challenge to know when to move on from any player, but that gets even harder for a part-time catcher, as it takes so long for any slump to become a meaningful sample of data to draw conclusions from. This two-week stretch looks awful, but it is just six games and 24 PA! But we are now at more than a two-month run where, if you were using d’Arnaud for every start, you haven’t been benefiting. If you haven’t moved on already, I would.

Francisco Alvarez, 0.45 P/G:

NL East catchers are all tanking, I guess. Alvarez has really been struggling ever since the calendar turned to August, and I wondered if he is maybe just hitting a wall in his rookie year. But, he hasn’t reached some crazy PA or games played milestones – he got plenty of minor league playing time in the past – and in some ways his stats are improving. His August K-rate is better than his season-long K-rate. Same for his walk rate. Same for his exit velocity and hard-hit rates. His barrel-rate is down, his BABIP is way down, his ISO is down, and his line drive rate is down. All of those “downs” are related, but they are also all numbers that are hard to trust in small samples, in part because they are so related to each other. I don’t think there is much to see here and even if there is, he is too talented to do anything other than live with the slump and be glad you have him for the future.

Hunter Greene,  -9.45 P/IP:

Greene looks like such a special pitcher, at times, and then he comes back from injury and gives up 5 HR and 8 walks over 6.2 IP in two starts. Greene had some big homer blow-ups in 2022 but managed to avoid those this year, never giving up more than two in a start until the five-homer barrage against Toronto last week. The walks, though, have been a real issue, and even without any other big homer days, he was still fairly homer-prone. This just seems like it will be the Hunter Greene experience – the walks will come with a lot of strikeouts, he’ll often give up a homer or two, and there will be occasional implosions when the ball is just sailing out on him. The overall package is still worth it, but unless he finds a way to rein in the BB and HR, he is going to be more good than great.

We have reached the MLB trade deadline which means we are just 30 days out from the Ottoneu trade deadline. I would say that means it is time to decide if you are buying or selling, but you should have done that already. I would say it is time to start making trades, but you have probably done that, as well. So here are the ___ things I am trying to do this month, ahead of the deadline.

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Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

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We’re still a month from the Ottoneu trade deadline, but trades aren’t the only way for rebuilders to, well, rebuild. There are hundreds of prospects across baseball and only a small handful are regularly rostered in Ottoneu leagues, which means you can often find interesting names sitting out there as free agents. Today I am going to look at some prospects I like who are available in at least half of Ottoneu leagues.

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Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

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In yesterday’s Hot Right Now, I noted that Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford are the two players with the most live auctions in Ottoneu leagues. I also gave only high-level thoughts on the two of them and then promised I would be back with more today. Today we will look more broadly at recent draftees and whether or not they have value in Ottoneu.

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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Today, given we are in the midst of the All Star Break and not a ton has happened since last week’s Hot Right Now, you are getting an abbreviated version focused on the players up for auction in the most leagues right now.

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On June 29th, as the clock neared midnight ET, Jake Mailhot and I completed a trade in League 32 that saw us swap a couple of big names.

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