Outfield is a lot deeper than I expected when I started building this list. Especially when you factor in all the platoon bats. However, I think filling up 810 games across the five OF positions will be more challenging than people think. A lot of players on this list are good for 100 games or less, even before accounting for injuries, underperformance, etc.
Over the past few weeks, I have been posting Ottoneu positional rankings, with dollar tiers instead of specific values. I took this approach last year, as well. It represents an evolution from where I was a few years back, when I regularly posted dollar values.
I have a growing discomfort with the idea that I can or should try to predict a player’s precise value. I don’t believe I was ever naive enough to think a value I put on a player was exact and not subject to error. I did, however, think the error bars could be managed – a $10 player might not be exactly $10 but he’s probably not $6 or $7 and he’s probably not $13 or $14. Over time, I have come to believe those ranges are wider. How much wider? Well, a lot.
Third base is a weird position this year. There are some studs at the top, but it gets risky real fast. Want to bet on Alex Bregman regaining his earlier form? Or Austin Riley avoiding his earlier form? Think Anthony Rendon can stay on the field? Or maybe you would rather gamble on Josh Donaldson’s health? Pick your poison. Hopefully these rankings help.
Shortstop is maybe the most fun position in baseball right now. Fernando Tatis Jr., Bo Bichette, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trea Turner and I could keep going. As a result, almost every team in your league is going to feel good about shortstop, which I think creates an opportunity to buy a second SS to be your MI. There is a chance that there could be some good values to be had if other managers are complacent thanks to having one of the top 10. And there are plenty of interesting names after the top 10.
Continuing my Ottoneu FanGraphs Points rankings series, we’ll turn our attention to middle infield, starting with second base. The next two lists (this one and shortstop, coming early next week) will have some overlap. Because Ottoneu has a MI spot, the replacement level for 2B and SS end up being the same. This is something I have played around with over the years – some years SS looks weaker; sometimes it is 2B. Sometimes the position that is weaker at the top also has a lower replacement level; sometimes it doesn’t. But the replacement level for the two positions always end up so close that prioritizing one over the other (i.e., if a player has 2B and SS eligibility, they should be used at SS) becomes impossible. To avoid making a false decision on prioritization, arbitrarily changing the value of players at these two spots, I combine them.
Our next stop on the tour of Ottoneu position rankings is 1B. As a reminder, I am only ranking players where they are likely to be used/most valuable, so players like Josh Bell (OF-eligible), Max Muncy (2B-eligible) and Yasmani Grandal (C-eligible) are not on this list. This is basically a list of anyone who is eligible at 1B, only.
Following up on yesterday’s article on “underpaid” players from the Ottoneu mock auction, today we will look at players who were “overpaid.” As with “underpaid” yesterday, “overpaid” is probably not the best term for these guys, but I think it’s the clearest, so we are going with that.
While the results of the Ottoneu mock auction are basically the only window we have into market price for 2022, they aren’t the only valuation we have. Steamer Projections are available and can be used to start to determine player values. Looking at where those values differ the most can be informative, both in identifying potential buy lows (or players to avoid) and in finding patterns that can be useful in future auctions.
If you follow me on Twitter (or read my last article), you know that I have been deep into a mock auction with a set of 13 other Ottoneu experts. As I am writing, we are nearing 460 players auctioned, leaving us just 20 guys from the finish line. By the time you are reading, we may be done!
With the completion of the auction, Ottoneu players will have 480 new data points to consider as they are planning for their 2022 seasons, and there has been discussion in the Ottoneu community about how to think about, interpret and use those new data points. I wanted to offer my thoughts on how I would use this mock auction – and how I wouldn’t.