With the season nearly upon us (I refuse to count the Japan Series), it’s time for Bold Predictions. My goal here is for my predictions to be legimately bold – which means my end of season recap will be a bit depressing – but directionally useful – which means you can hopefully use these bold predictions to buy (or sell) on players and strengthen your teams.
As always, my bold predictions will be Ottoneu-focused.
Every year, before the season starts, I go through my rosters and see who I roster most (and poke around at players I wish I rostered more). And every year I learn something about my fantasy baseball management from the exercise. So every year, I end up deciding to share those results with you.
When preparing for a draft or auction, it is pretty typical to determine what positions you feel best about the deep options and therefore don’t have to spend big resources upfront. Love a bunch of shortstops you can get after pick 200/for less than $5? Then you don’t need to break the bank for Francisco Lindor.
In keeper auctions, that depth can shift unexpectedly (as we discussed earlier this week), so you need to now only know what positions are deep but what positions are deep among players actually available. But there is another factor that impacts position depth: what other teams need.
Sunday morning, at 7 am (which felt like 6 after springing forward), I sat down at my computer, started the auction for Ottoneu league 1199 and immediately dropped $88 on Juan Soto. Spending $88 on one player isn’t something I would typically do and (as much as I would like to) I can’t blame the early hour. When prepping for the draft a couple of days earlier, I had put $90 as a target price for Soto…and then upped it to $95. $88 wasn’t me panicking, sleep-bidding, or just going all out to get my guy – it was very much the plan. And it’s all because OF has become so deep that it’s shallow.
The other day, a discussion related to the Ottoneu Prestige League (which opens again this week) brought out the fact that Willi Castro was the only player with 3B/SS/2B/OF eligibility who was projected at over 4.5 points per game. That was a fascinating fact. Having broad eligibility is really useful, but it is only useful if the player produces and Willi Castro doesn’t produce – but he was projected to produce! Willi Castro over 4.5 P/G is pretty intriguing!
But something didn’t pass the smell test.
This was exhausting. We have so much data we can analyze on pitchers and so many people are so good at doing that. And I find myself ranking pitchers and wondering what, exactly, I bring to the table. The biggest thing, to be honest, is my Ottoneu knowledge. There are a number of people out there who are great pitching analysts. There are great lists for re-draft. And for dynasty. But the combination of Ottoneu’s scoring systems, the keeper-but-not-dynasty nature, and the Ottoneu economics make this a bit of a unique list.
I was looking forward to this list and it turned out to be pretty uninspiring. Even while merging in the utility-only bats like Shohei Ohtani and Marcell Ozuna, this group isn’t as exciting as 1B used to be. For years it felt like a necessity to have two 1B to fill 1B and Util, because those were the biggest boppers. It doesn’t feel as true today.
From the giant lists covering OF and MI to one of the shorter and least interesting lists – catcher. Last year, I was pretty excited about the catcher position and this year, I am not. In the intro to my rankings last year, I called out a number of young catchers that were emerging or ready to break out that left me feeling confident I could find catcher production. That didn’t so much work out.
This list might have actually been harder than the outfield list, if only because it gets so ugly towards the bottom. Middle Infield is always odd because it is both where some of the absolute best players play and because it is a couple of spots that can be relatively shallow and feature a bunch of glove-first dudes. But there are some interesting patterns at play this year.