A month into the season, I start to feel itchy. Those slow starts are now harder to write off. Those impressive early numbers feel less early. And I start to look for data I can aggressively act on. One of the best places to look is where projections have changed. Humans can be easily fooled by random variance that looks like a pattern. Computers are better at finding the signal amongst the noise.

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The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

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Thursday morning at 4 am ET, Ottoneu Prestige League rosters were updated, as discussed in my article last week about my OPL rosters. If you participate in OPL, you probably already looked at what changed and spent a lot of time thinking about who to add, who to cut, and why.

But even if you don’t play OPL, there are some interesting insights to be gathered from looking at the most added and dropped players in OPL.

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Year three of the Ottoneu Prestige League is off to a great start and with the new rules for 2024, late April is suddenly a very interesting time. For the first time, OPL is giving managers a chance to re-shape their roster in the middle of a round.

For those new to OPL, it’s a best-ball competition open to any team that finished in the top half of a standard Ottoneu league the year before. One of the unique rules, though, is that your roster for OPL locks at the start of each round – any adds, drops, or trades you make after that don’t impact your OPL roster.

But this morning, at 4 a.m. ET, all OPL rosters were re-set. Any adds, drops and trades processed over the last few weeks since Opening Day will be reflected in your OPL roster. And that has created a bit of a learning opportunity.

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The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

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One of the interesting challenges with a 40-man roster in Ottoneu is figuring out the best way to use that depth. Having 18 bench spots means you can carry a deep roster of MLB talent, a bunch of upside players, or anything in between. Which means that you, almost inevitably, have players on your roster that you just aren’t using.

Ottoneu’s Team Production page is a great way to figure out who you aren’t using and start to make some decisions about how to handle those players.

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Monday afternoon, Niv Shah announced a new feature on Ottoneu’s Six Picks: The Big Board. This is a super fun feature and it is a good excuse to do something I haven’t done since last April: Write about Six Picks.

When I wrote about Six Picks last year, I noted that it is “free, simple and fun” and that I don’t exactly play to win – I play to have fun. But there is a second reason (and one which the Big Board helps) I play and look at Six Picks daily: I think it makes me a better fantasy player.

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Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

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I wanted to refer to the Format Wars in this article, but they aren’t really wars. They are barely skirmishes. They are mostly friendly debates.

But there is debate! Head-to-Head vs. Seaon-long? Roto vs. points? If you pick roto, are you into 4×4 or 5×5? For points, do you go SABR or FanGraphs? I am happy to weigh in on all of these questions, but today we have a prime opportunity to discuss the two points formats and what makes them unique, so we are going to do that.

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The season is going full speed ahead and while it is still too soon to draw any grand conclusions from early performances, that won’t stop us from trying to find an edge here or there. Being quick to grab a potential breakout performance comes with risk. You have to make a cut to add that player. You have to spend budget.

But acting fast also comes with upside. A guy who looks risky now and therefore only costs $1-$2 may look less risky in a couple of weeks and cost you $5 or more. And so we, our first truly in-season Hot Right Now of 2024. Read the rest of this entry »