Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Sept 23, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts

Craig Kimbrel, Add% Change (7 days): -17.2%

The cuts these days are almost all due to injury, but Kimbrel is a bit of an outlier. Like the three names we’ll cover in the next section, Kimbrel’s season appears to be over, but unlike that trio, he isn’t hurt – he just doesn’t have a job any more. Kimbrel spent much of the season being extremely effective. On July 7, he went 1 IP with 2 K to get his 23rd save. He had a 2.10 ERA and lest you think that was just good luck from a guy pitching poorly, his FIP (2.47) and xFIP (3.08) don’t suggest that’s the case.

Little did we know, that 23rd save would be his last. Since that date, Kimbrel has an 11.50 ERA and while it’s hard to imagine anyone pitching that poorly, his final 18 innings with Baltimore featured a 7.44 FIP, as well. Jay Jaffe detailed what went wrong over the second half of the season. TL;DR: he pitched poorly and the Orioles could not justify keeping him around.

Kimbrel will likely be back next year. Someone will see that first half, think they can help him fix his issues, and take a shot on him. I doubt that will be a closer job (at least at first) and for Ottoneu purposes, I don’t see him as more than a guy to watch in Spring Training.

Injuries

Christian Scott, Add% Change (7 days): -23.8%

Scott was something of a fast mover and something of a slow mover through the minors depending how you want to look at it. On the one hand, he was nearly 25 and into his fourth year of pro ball by the time he got the call to Queens. On the other, he was used as a reliever in college and given he had to make a transition back to starting for the Mets, a 2024 debut wasn’t necessarily expected.

He wasn’t particularly good in his rookie season, failing to show the big strikeout numbers he piled up in the minors, while being a bit homer-prone thanks to a low ground ball rate (again, in contrast to his minor league numbers). Perhaps he just needed time to get comfortable in MLB and let his talent shine out, but we’ll have to wait a while to find out.

Scott had Tommy John Surgery combined with the internal brace that has become more common recently. That ended his 2024, but also puts a premature end on his 2025 season. By the time Scott his ready to pitch in a game again, he’ll be almost 27 and it’s possible that he will need more than just a rehab stint in the minors to get another shot in MLB. This makes him an easy cut now, and for me moves him off the radar until late in 2025.

Daulton Varsho, Add% Change (7 days): -13.8%

Varsho’s season ended due to a shoulder injury and Ottoneu managers are jumping ship. It is hard to blame them, as we are now into year two of Varsho being sub-4.0 P/G and now he is having shoulder surgery, which isn’t typically great for hitters short-term production. The injury had been an issue since August, but even if you go back before the injury, he had a below-average wRC+. There just isn’t a lot of reason to think that Varsho will find the results he had in 2022. And even if he does, that may not be good enough for a player without C-eligibility.

Paul Sewald, Add% Change (7 days): -9.1%

Being moved out of the closer role didn’t help Sewald and while the Diamondbacks have suggested in the past that he could be saving games, the combination of his poor performance and his recent injury probably puts that to rest. Sewald has had pain in his neck, which has kept him sidelined, though he did recently throw a bullpen and may be able to return this year. From a fantasy perspective, I am not sure how much you should care about his potential return. He simply hasn’t been good enough to help.

 

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

J.D. Martinez, -1.6 P/G

I have been low on Martinez for a few years now, missing out on his 2021 and 2023 seasons because I simply didn’t think he would continue to bounce back. The bottom has dropped out this year and I am again going to enter the off-season staying away from Martinez. As a util-only bat, he’s hard to roster unless you can be entirely confident in his production. And given his up and down performance the last few years, the valley he’s in right now, and his recent 37th birthday, I am out.

Frankie Montas, 2.3 P/IP

Honestly, 2.3 P/IP isn’t that bad when you consider he has given up FIVE home runs in this stretch. This has been the story dating back to his last start with Cincinnati, as the strikeouts have been there, but so have the walks. The HR were not really an issue until his last two starts, against Philly and Arizona. I wish we had more time to see if those two starts were outliers or if HR are going to be an issue. But he’s not a guy you can rely on this week and his future value is very hard to gauge at the moment.