Ottoneu Hot Right Now: September 4, 2024

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Current Auctions

Calvin Faucher – 28 current auctions

Auction action is slow these days, so these aren’t all the most exciting names, but the top four are all worth a look, with Faucher maybe the least interesting. Faucher is being pushed up in Ottoneu by his usage, piling up three saves in his last four appearances (and four  in his last seven) getting him up to six on the year. He has the Marlins last two saves and three of their last four. He is now at 7.14 P/IP and is at 9.8 since August 8th, covering 10 outings of 1 IP each.

Faucher has made big strikeout gains this year, but still allows a lot of walks and while you can point to his .345 BABIP as a sign of positive regression to come, he has a .344 career BABIP because it was just as high the last two years. That is still less than 100 total innings, so it probably will improve, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

I don’t think Faucher is suddenly an ace reliever, and the numbers don’t support that, but he has been excellent lately. And if you need relief innings to help you try to pull in a title, he is as good a target as any right now.

Verdict: Don’t Go Crazy (unless you are in 5×5 and chasing saves, in which case Don’t Miss)

Addison Barger – 25 current auctions

Barger was a name who cropped up in fantasy circles as an intriguing prospect despite not having a ton of prospect hype. But his 2023 in Triple-A was underwhelming and an early 2024 call up was downright bad. Barger rejoined the Jays on June 15 and the next few weeks (through July 27) netted him just 49 PA and a 38 wRC+.

As the Jays season went south (as did a few players in Barger’s way, such as Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa), Barger’s playing time increased and he seems to have found his stride. in the last few weeks (since July 28), he has had 104 PA and a 130 wRC+. He has a double-digit barrel rate, an acceptable K-rate, and no BABIP concerns. He doesn’t walk a ton and the HR/FB rate is likely inflated, but there is an awful lot to like here.

For this year, he brings you 3B/SS/OF eligibility and while he’ll likely lose SS after this year, that is still a nice combination. The FanGraphs prospect team said this in December: “We project that Barger will get to enough power to be the larger half of a 3B/RF platoon.” Barger is showing why they felt that way, and that is a useful piece in Ottoneu.

Verdict: Don’t Go Crazy

Bryce Eldridge – 24 current auctions

Eldridge is a legit power prospect. His FanGraphs player page lists potential for 80 raw and 70 game power and he has hit 22 HR over 447 PA across three levels this year, as he has moved from A, to High-A, to Double-A all this year. He’s 6’7″ so you’ll immediately hear concerns about a long swing but from what I have read, that isn’t a huge issue for him even now, and it is something he can continue to work on. His K-rate isn’t bad and has been improving, but we haven’t seen much of him in the high-minors yet (three Double-A PA isn’t even enough to call a small sample). How he handles elite pro velocity will be telling.

My biggest concern with him, though, is the position. He is a 1B and only a 1B as far as I can tell. He has been exclusively a 1B/DH this year, so don’t be fooled by the OF eligibility – it will go away and it does not appear likely to come back. Add to that being in an org that hasn’t developed much power lately and plays in a power-draining stadium, and you are putting a really high bar in front of Eldridge. Can he hit for enough power playing for the Giants to be useful as a fantasy 1B, especially in a format without a CI spot? That’s a tough ask. But he is showing a ton of potential and is a an intriguing prospect.

Verdict: Don’t Stress

Reid Detmers – 19 current auctions

I won’t spend a ton of time on Detmers. He is a known entity. A high upside prospect who has shown flashes but never consistently. After yet another stint in Triple-A, he came up to face the Dodgers and shut down a really strong offense. We know the potential. We know how hard pitching is to find. I have been adding him where I can.

Verdict: Don’t Go Crazy

Roster Adds

Caden Dana – Add% Change (7 Days) – 42.0%

I’ll be honest, I am not all that excited about Dana. He pitched well in 135 Double-A innings, but has flashed issues with walks throughout his (admittedly brief) minor league career, and that showed up in his MLB debut, as well, walking four over six innings, with just four K. He was facing a weak lineup and got away with a pretty mediocre performance.

Dana used five pitches in that start, but three of them were not particularly useful. He threw 52% four-seamers and 27% sliders, and those pitches looked effective, particularly the slider that had a 40% whiff rate and a 38% CSW%. But his other three pitches (cutter, curve, change) were thrown a combined 20 times and only one (yes, one) of those 20 found the zone. The Mariners swung at five of them and missed on four of those five, but if he can’t spot those pitches for strikes at least sometimes, they will be fairly easily ignored.

I know there is upside and I get why people are adding Dana, but I would be hesitant to start him moving foward. His next start should be at Texas, but if not, it will be Minnesota. After that comes Houston. The Angels do have two series with the White Sox coming up (sandwiched between more Texas and Houston) and I wouldn’t hate giving him a shot there, if he looks good in any starts between now and then.

Osvaldo Bido – Add% Change (7 Days) – 33.5%

I am part of the group that has been adding Bido. Jake Mailhot covered Bido in last week’s Drip and pointed out that you can expect a meaningful H/R split from Bido, which also paints his future in a bit of doubt – remember, he won’t get to pitch half his games in the Oakland Coliseum next year! Meanwhile, this torrid streak he is on is somewhat perplexing. Bido had a weak cup of coffee with Oakland last year, has never put up good numbers in Triple-A, and now looks like an ace.

When you dig a little deeper, you get a 4.67 xFIP (which he should continue to beat at home) and a 4.29 SIERA, with just a 23.9% K-rate and a 10.0% BB-rate. This feels like a case where you ride the hot streak and then move on. And if the hot streak continues through September, I would shop him in December, before he moves to his new park.

Kumar Rocker – Add% Change (7 Days) – 32.9%

Another quick one. Rocker was an elite prospect entering the draft. Then he got hurt. And while people will tell you we never should have given up on him, that doesn’t mean he should have been rostered the last 2-3 years as he worked his way back. But if you still have a chance to buy in, he seems healthy, destined to pitch in MLB next year if not sooner, and, as I just said, he was an elite prospect entering the draft. This is still a huge talent. Buy buy buy.

Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Lawrence Butler – (13.1 P/G)

I talked about Butler on this week’s episode of Keep or Kut, but couldn’t pass up mentioning him here again. Butler has been a roller coaster this year, posting some of the worst months of any hitter in baseball and some of the best. August alone was an utter disaster until about August 20 and just insanely good since then. I think Butler is a guy you’ll just have to ride the hot and cold with, because the overall performance has been great.

Joe Musgrove – (7.5 P/G)

It felt like people were done waiting on Musgrove at some point, and there were inexpensive Musgroves available on the wire or via trade. Hope you bought when you could!