Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Sept 16, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts

Scott Barlow, Add% Change (7 days): -10.7%

It’s a slow week in cutsville, so our biggest number here is a non-closing RP who once looked like he could become an ace reliever, but has really struggled. He had a nice start to 2024, so it makes sense his roster rate had ticked up, but he wasn’t helping your team the last couple of months. If it took the Guardians releasing him for you to realize you should also release him…well, better late than never. He is still rostered in more than 40% of leagues, and that should drop to (or at least towards) zero.

Justin Verlander, Add% Change (7 days): -7.8%

Our next biggest number is a non-ace SP who once looked like he could become a Cy Young winner, and then did become a Cy Young winner and was one of the absolute best, most electric arms in the baseball universe for a period of time. But now he is 41-years-old and while it pains this slightly-older-than-that writer to admit it, that might just be too old.

The signs were all there in 2023 – the K’s were down, the ERA estimators looked bad – but he kept plugging along and I get why people were hopeful that 2024 might be better. Instead it has been much worse and I think at this point we need to just accept that the end is here. Will Verlander accept that this off-season? I have no idea, but he won’t be on any of my rosters moving forward.

 

Injuries

Osvaldo Bido, Add% Change (7 days): -12.9%

Bido is following a path well-trodden in these spaces, going from Hot Right Now to Cold Right Now in a matter of weeks. When I covered Bido in that HRN, I said:

This feels like a case where you ride the hot streak and then move on. And if the hot streak continues through September, I would shop him in December, before he moves to his new park.

And I guess that hot streak is over. After getting knocked around a bit by the Mariners, he lasted just two innings against Detroit before succumbing to injury (his performance that day was fine) and it appears his season is over. If you have him on your roster right now, you have two choices:

  1. Cut him and move on.
  2. Hold him through the start of the off-season.

My preference is #2. I would not hesitate to cut him if the cash or roster spot can be used for something more interesting, but I think inexpensive Bido’s might both attract some arbitration and have some trade value. I do not expect I will have Bido on any of my rosters on February 1, but I don’t mind sitting on him now to see what comes up between now and then.

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Anthony Volpe, -0.1 P/G

If you listen to Keep or Kut, you may remember me saying I was high on Volpe earlier this year. In April and May he had great results, but also had decreased his K-rate and was walking more, while hitting for more extra base power. Boy, has that take aged poorly. The plate discipline has faded, the power has regressed, and everything looks pretty bad. The glove provides value to the Yankees and likely keeps him in the lineup, but I have really lost faith that his bat will catch up to the hype.

Bobby Miller, -2.7 P/IP

Miller looked ready to leap to another level after a March 29 start against St. Louis in which he looked like an ace. He went 6 IP, struck out 11, walked just 1, and gave up only 2 hits and no runs. Since then he has made 11 starts around injuries. In those 11 starts, he has last 6+ innings just twice, struck out more than 4 just twice, has walked less than two just twice. He has given up a HR in every single one of those starts and has given up multiple HR in five of them. It has been really ugly. We know he has talent, so maybe this is just a lost season with injuries taking their toll? Perhaps, but I don’t think he is going to turn it around in September or October.

 

 





A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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