Assessing My Big Differences with ADP, Pt. 2
A couple weeks ago, I looked at 10 pitchers where I’m higher than the market with the promise of a second part looking at the pitchers where I’m a good bit lower than the market. I’m using the early average draft position (ADP) information at the NFBC in their Draft Champions leagues (50-round draft-and-hold format).
10 Where I’m Lower
Dallas Keuchel | 73rd SP in ADP; 113th SP by me
My rank is almost certainly lower than he’ll finish on a player rater if he gets at least 150 innings, but I don’t understand taking him in the top 75 when you can easily replicate his worth much later than that… possibly even as late as I have him. He doesn’t miss bats, he’s allowed more than a hit-per-inning in three of the last four seasons, his new team’s defense is unlikely to help, and he moves back to the American League with the DH after developing a bit of a home run issue last year (1.3 HR/9), so what’s there to like?
I’m generally higher on bland, boring production than others in the industry, but his upside is bland and boring while also carrying the downside of being a 4.75 ERA/1.35 WHIP. That could still be useful to a White Sox team that just needs 5-6 solid innings every fifth day, but it will hurt your fantasy team when it also comes with a well below average strikeout rate.
Dustin May | 68th SP in ADP; 106th SP by me
I don’t mind May, but he wasn’t really looking at a guaranteed rotation spot even before they signed Alex Wood and now it looks even worse for him. He is dropping and without doing the work to eliminate all the relievers in the current ADP, I’ll guess that he’s sitting about 70ish among starters, but even if he’s closer to 75th, it’s still quite a ways from where I have him.
There’s an open question about his strikeout potential even when he does get a chance at starting as his best swinging strike rate at any stop of note was a 12% mark in High-A during the 2018 season. He did post an insane 32% mark in 30.3 innings at Rookie ball during his pro debut but considering that he’s lived in the 8-12% range since, I’m comfortable calling that a fluke.
Marcus Stroman| 58th SP in ADP; 94th SP by me
A better version of Keuchel, but the horrific infield defense in New York scares me. It seemed to start impacting him immediately upon arrival last year as his hit rate (8.5 to 9.8) and BABIP (.293 to .337) both went up. I could see maybe pushing him a bit higher in his tier, which starts at 81, but that’s mostly a cosmetic move.
Pablo López | 97th SP in ADP; 120th SP by me
He’s definitely headed upward and I actually expect to have him higher than the market in my next update. I wrote him up in my Good Pitches, Bad Pitchers series and came away really liking him. He will be in the 81-98 tier (well, assuming I have the same tier cutoffs in February).
Anthony DeSclafani | 70th SP in ADP; 93rd SP by me
I like that Tony Disco has pushed his strikeout rate up yearly, peaking at 24% last year, while also maintaining a strong walk rate (7% career), but his 1.9 and 1.6 HR/9 rates the last two years pushed him down my rankings. Even if the ball gets a bit more favorable for pitchers, he still pitches in a hitter-friendly park. Entering his age-30 season, he’s a capable arm, but I need a higher upside for a top 70 arm.
Michael Kopech | 80th SP in ADP; 102nd SP by me
I parked a group of interesting prospects with uncertain roles in the 99-107 which included Kopech, but he’s a near-guaranteed riser once we see him in Spring Training and ready to go. That said, he likely won’t soar as there isn’t an obvious spot for him to start the season with Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Lopez, and Gonzalez penciled in. My interest will depend on how viable it is to draft someone I will need to hold for about a month before getting some innings. This article had some interesting info about Kopech, too.
Dinelson Lamet | 30th SP in ADP; 55th SP by me
I’m not quite on the Lamet train. I understand the strikeout prowess, but surely we need more than one standout category for a top 30 arm, right? This is still a two-pitch arm with a career 4.37 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Maybe if he comes into Spring Training with a third pitch, I’ll adjust. Until then, I’m OK being lower than the market on him.
Trevor Bauer | 24th SP in ADP; 41st SP by me
I discussed right-handed Robbie Ray at length with Justin on our SP review pod.
Chris Paddack | 16th SP in ADP; 30th SP by me
This one shook me because I actually consider myself pro-Paddack in comparison to some of my peers in the community. I’ve heard some pushback worrying about Paddack so I think I assumed the market wasn’t super-high on him only to see him slotted just outside the top 15 with a peak overall pick of 31. Like his teammate Lamet, he basically has two pitches, but at least he has a show-me a third in the curveball that was an 11% offering last year. He is working on it this offseason, too.
Here’s what I really don’t get about Paddack’s price, in a season where he was awesome for 140.7 innings last year, he only finished 27th. What’s the path to becoming the 16th-best arm? Volume alone likely won’t do it as the same article about his curveball talks about him likely capping around 180 innings next year. I’m not sure 40 innings will move him up 11 spots.
Caleb Smith | 61st SP in ADP; 76th SP by me
He’s in a tier that actually ranges up to 56, but I’m just so worried about that home run rate. Nick Pollack and I discussed Smith at length on our latest Fireside which you can listen to here!
I count 14 SP who in 2019 had 180+ IP and who are near locks to out-perform Paddack. Close calls are Bumgerner, Berrios, E-Rod, Nola, Syndergaard, Boyd, and Minor. I think his ceiling certainly is a top-15 arm with his floor being around 25-30.
He’s a pitcher. His floor is Dr James Andrews.
Obviously he was speaking of his floor at 180 innings, not the “what’s the worst thing that could happen” floor that applies to every pitcher in baseball.
Ya I think we need to get to the point in the fantasy community where we understand that everyone’s obvious floor is injury and missed time so that the floor we’re talking about in fantasy discussion is the one where they play 5+ months.
Fair, but if you do this in best ball (draft & hold) you don’t have enough pitchers by the All-Star break. You need to assume a couple SPs are sacrificed to the injury gods in that format.
I took Paddack in Draft and hold 17th SP off the board ahead Kershaw and Grenkie, maybe I should have taken Kershaw. Oh well
I thought for sure Jake Odorizzi would be discussed
Why’s that? I’m higher than the market on him – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/assessing-my-big-differences-with-adp-pt-1/
Is this an article or an ad for a podcast “I discussed right-handed Robbie Ray at length with Justin on our SP review pod.” What did you say? lol
Besides, isn’t Chris Archer the right-handed Robbie Ray?
Do I see Kopech on both lists?
Whattya mean?
I think he meant to say “I’m really high right now!”
With Paddack, I think the path to 16 is a recovery of a better GB% he showed in the minors, along with a reduction in HR/FB. Maybe he can start lasting into the 6th inning, helping him turn 9-7 into something like a 14-6 instead of the 11-9 projections, with a sub-3 ERA and 10+ K/9.
Not sure if that gets you to 16th SP, but that has to be close, and without asking for anything too outlandish.
If Paddack gets 14 wins, I’ll hire a hooker to fondle your balls! 😉
Can I get a legal ruling – is this a contract?
And if so, do I get to choose the hooker?
I’m pretty sure it’s a binding verbal contract in 31 states. But you don’t get to choose the hooker.
It’s really not outlandish. I mean, Cashner was leading the AL in W’s at around the halfway mark last year. Wins are a fluky stat, just ask DeGrom
You are assuming 50 innings of A/A+ ball will translate into numbers more than 140 innings of major league ball will? Like, he’s pitching against the Dodgers not the Modesto Nuts.
I’m not assuming he will match his lower minors numbers, but improving on what he did last year doesn’t seem too far fetched.
And his stuff plays no matter the opponent. While he got knocked around in two starts vs the Dodgers, he did dominate then once as well.
I’m not saying he’s an absolute lock to finish top 15, nor that i’d necessarily pay that price myself. I just feel that he isn’t any more risky in that range than guys like Greinke or Severino, and that with some modest growth, a little luck, and an uptick on starts/innings, the path to a top 15 season is there for him.
i think with his high fastball, nasty change up will make him a great BABIP beater. probably wont repeat .237 again yet im easily taking the under on his projection. his IFFB is 11.5% which is solid and elite changeups lead to terrible contact (similar to luis castillo)
What’s so alluring about Paddack is the WHIP and the K/BB ratio. It was pretty clear he ran out of gas around late July, and had a miserable August. Fortunately, rebounded with 3 nice starts in September. All that said (and I’m as big a Paddack fan as there is), why not target Heaney (compare their Steamer projections… pretty close!) 135-140 picks later?
I can see why you have Kopech on this list, but I disagree. Assuming the White Sox have him on an innings limit, he might not break camp in the rotation and it would probably be smart if he didn’t, with the cold weather and all. But assuming he’s healthy and is added in mid-May to early June, you’re delusional if you don’t slot him in immediately at #2, assuming Giolito can continue last year’s breakout. Keuchel? Gonzalez? Cease?!!! C’mon, man!
So, I recommend that everyone drink the Kool-Aid and keep dissing Kopech. Meanwhile, I’ll be picking him up off the FA list at the first hint of his call-up and be on my way to yet another FBB title. Thanks, boys!
With all due respect, I think you’re missing the point about this article and the reason I’m confident in that assessment is that you mentioned picking him up via waivers. This is about draft prices. He’s obviously of all-formats interest if he’s on waivers into May, that’s not a question. My point was that I’m not drafting him to hold for 1.5-2 months, turns out you aren’t either, so we actually agree!
Is it really “drinking the Kool-Aid” to refer to someone in a negative sense? (For that matter, is “drinking the Kool-Aid” really even an appropriate term given that it refers the mass suicide of 900 people?)
BTW, your post notes that you intend to take Kopech “off the FA list at the first hint of his call-up” which means you have no intention of drafting him.
Your post is weird.
So we can’t say ‘drink the koolaid’ anymore? If we don’t lighten up a bit, we are going to run out of words.
Since I can’t help myself being a pedant, this reminds me that it was actually “Flavor Aid,” and not “Kool-Aid” (though there is some claim that there was SOME Kool-Aid at Jonestown, even though it wasn’t the majority).
you could park Kopech’s fastball in the 99-107 range, eh!?!?!? guy???
Yea that was a lol, but he did hit 107 iirc
I wouldn’t worry about Alex Wood taking any IP away from Dustin May. Best case scenario he gets 130IP and with his velocity down and back issues, I’m thinking he may even be heading for the pen. Stripling perhaps worries me a bit but…at the end of the day, if healthy, I expect May to get 160IP. He’s only 22 this year, he’s gotten 130IP in 3 straight seasons, he throws 96, has a very good to excellent slider and a third show me pitch, he might have a 4 to 1 K/BB ratio with his excellent command. He pitches in the NL, for a great team with an above average defense. A team that depite it yanking stripling around and positioning Ryu for rest, etc., has managed to run out Buehler pretty consistently. Again, if healthy, May sees 160IP at least, with a 3.5 ERA and 8.5k 2.0 BB rate. Oh, he’s also got consistently a 50%+ GB rate in the minors, so their is that too. Selling is done.
I greatly prefer Stripling so I really hope he gets more IP. I’d be floored if May got 160 MLB IP. I think the numbers you present are an interesting upside, but it definitely shouldn’t be an expectation, especially the 8.5 K
I think it’s possible, but depends on Wood’s health. Have to monitor. one last item re: may. most of his work was as a 21 year old in AA (with a 9+K rate btw) but in AAA small sample sizes persist but…27ip and no home runs? How does someone do that in NM last year in AAA? If he even works in a show me 4 seamer he’s go K upside.
“How does someone do that in NM last year in AAA? ” The answer is that he didn’t do that in NM. All but one of his 5 games were on the road., with most against the least offensive offenses in the league, And by the way, the Dodger AAA affiliate is now in Oklahoma City, which appears to be a mild pitchers park anyway. Still, your overall point holds, no HR in 27 IP even in pitchers’ parks is a very good sign., especially coupled with his 0.6 HR/9 rate in AA and a similar rate in limited MLB time.
But I agree with Paul, the statement “if healthy, May sees 160IP at least” is a stretch. It’s certainly within the realm of possibility, but should not be an expectation.
FREE TONY GONSOLIN
Only 35 NL pitchers got 160 innings last year. I just don’t buy that May is going to be one of them, unless you expect 50 out of the pen and 110 as a starter.
The comparison between Paddack and Lamet is interesting. To me it’s the fastball that really separates them, since they both obviously have one outstanding secondary offering. Paddack is in the zone a ton with his fastball (62%) but batters can’t do much with it (.653 OPS against). For Lamet, I don’t know if he really throws a fastball and a sinker – or if it’s basically the same pitch – but either way the results are atrocious: 1.044 / .971 OPS against and a 30% HR/FB. It was better in 2017 but not by a whole lot.
Good stuff, Paul. Do you think May’s value increases when the Dodgers inevitably put Wood on the IL or do you think he will be locked into a bullpen spot this season/Triple AAA rotation until a distinct injury occurs?
Or maybe you answered that question already in Part 1… Whoops
I’m surprised that Kluber is not in this article. I would have thought that 28 would be on the low side but I’d like to see an article on the challenges of ranking the stars coming back from lost seasons. Is there any method to the madness of ranking Severino, Kluber, or Carrasco?
First time poster, long time listener. In the podcast Q&A with J&J(very cute), Jason mentions three statistics he seeks to identify possible pitching breakouts. I checked it out and compiled a short list with the following parameters Pitchers 10% swinging strike rate >14% k-bb- Some pitchers might not meet a category by a few percentage points, but all factor in to each threshold. They’re as follows, one list younger players that may have another level, and crafty vets who may have great underrated value at their current cost.
Lucchesi
Reynaldo Lopez
Soroka
Musgrove
Berrios
Fried
Marquez
Boyd
E. Rodriguez
Descalfani
Bailey
Tanaka
Minor
Hendricks
Lynn
You obviously have crushes on a couple known entities listed. But any thoughts on any of these pitchers that we aren’t giving enough credit to and may offer some sneaky value? My main queries are does Boyd have an ace level in him, and can Homer Bailey aspire to be a Lynn/Minor contributor in the Odorizzi mold for the Twins?
Jesse
Pitchers 10% swinging strike rate >14% k-bb. Sorry
Dood.
10% swinging strike rate
>14% k-bb