Assessing My Big Differences with ADP, Pt. 2

A couple weeks ago, I looked at 10 pitchers where I’m higher than the market with the promise of a second part looking at the pitchers where I’m a good bit lower than the market. I’m using the early average draft position (ADP) information at the NFBC in their Draft Champions leagues (50-round draft-and-hold format).

10 Where I’m Lower

Dallas Keuchel | 73rd SP in ADP; 113th SP by me

My rank is almost certainly lower than he’ll finish on a player rater if he gets at least 150 innings, but I don’t understand taking him in the top 75 when you can easily replicate his worth much later than that… possibly even as late as I have him. He doesn’t miss bats, he’s allowed more than a hit-per-inning in three of the last four seasons, his new team’s defense is unlikely to help, and he moves back to the American League with the DH after developing a bit of a home run issue last year (1.3 HR/9), so what’s there to like?

I’m generally higher on bland, boring production than others in the industry, but his upside is bland and boring while also carrying the downside of being a 4.75 ERA/1.35 WHIP. That could still be useful to a White Sox team that just needs 5-6 solid innings every fifth day, but it will hurt your fantasy team when it also comes with a well below average strikeout rate.

Dustin May | 68th SP in ADP; 106th SP by me

I don’t mind May, but he wasn’t really looking at a guaranteed rotation spot even before they signed Alex Wood and now it looks even worse for him. He is dropping and without doing the work to eliminate all the relievers in the current ADP, I’ll guess that he’s sitting about 70ish among starters, but even if he’s closer to 75th, it’s still quite a ways from where I have him.

There’s an open question about his strikeout potential even when he does get a chance at starting as his best swinging strike rate at any stop of note was a 12% mark in High-A during the 2018 season. He did post an insane 32% mark in 30.3 innings at Rookie ball during his pro debut but considering that he’s lived in the 8-12% range since, I’m comfortable calling that a fluke.

Marcus Stroman| 58th SP in ADP; 94th SP by me

A better version of Keuchel, but the horrific infield defense in New York scares me. It seemed to start impacting him immediately upon arrival last year as his hit rate (8.5 to 9.8) and BABIP (.293 to .337) both went up. I could see maybe pushing him a bit higher in his tier, which starts at 81, but that’s mostly a cosmetic move.

Pablo López | 97th SP in ADP; 120th SP by me

He’s definitely headed upward and I actually expect to have him higher than the market in my next update. I wrote him up in my Good Pitches, Bad Pitchers series and came away really liking him. He will be in the 81-98 tier (well, assuming I have the same tier cutoffs in February).

Anthony DeSclafani | 70th SP in ADP; 93rd SP by me

I like that Tony Disco has pushed his strikeout rate up yearly, peaking at 24% last year, while also maintaining a strong walk rate (7% career), but his 1.9 and 1.6 HR/9 rates the last two years pushed him down my rankings. Even if the ball gets a bit more favorable for pitchers, he still pitches in a hitter-friendly park. Entering his age-30 season, he’s a capable arm, but I need a higher upside for a top 70 arm.

Michael Kopech | 80th SP in ADP; 102nd SP by me

I parked a group of interesting prospects with uncertain roles in the 99-107 which included Kopech, but he’s a near-guaranteed riser once we see him in Spring Training and ready to go. That said, he likely won’t soar as there isn’t an obvious spot for him to start the season with Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Lopez, and Gonzalez penciled in. My interest will depend on how viable it is to draft someone I will need to hold for about a month before getting some innings. This article had some interesting info about Kopech, too.

Dinelson Lamet | 30th SP in ADP; 55th SP by me

I’m not quite on the Lamet train. I understand the strikeout prowess, but surely we need more than one standout category for a top 30 arm, right? This is still a two-pitch arm with a career 4.37 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Maybe if he comes into Spring Training with a third pitch, I’ll adjust. Until then, I’m OK being lower than the market on him.

Trevor Bauer | 24th SP in ADP; 41st SP by me

I discussed right-handed Robbie Ray at length with Justin on our SP review pod.

Chris Paddack | 16th SP in ADP; 30th SP by me

This one shook me because I actually consider myself pro-Paddack in comparison to some of my peers in the community. I’ve heard some pushback worrying about Paddack so I think I assumed the market wasn’t super-high on him only to see him slotted just outside the top 15 with a peak overall pick of 31. Like his teammate Lamet, he basically has two pitches, but at least he has a show-me a third in the curveball that was an 11% offering last year. He is working on it this offseason, too.

Here’s what I really don’t get about Paddack’s price, in a season where he was awesome for 140.7 innings last year, he only finished 27th. What’s the path to becoming the 16th-best arm? Volume alone likely won’t do it as the same article about his curveball talks about him likely capping around 180 innings next year. I’m not sure 40 innings will move him up 11 spots.

Caleb Smith | 61st SP in ADP; 76th SP by me

He’s in a tier that actually ranges up to 56, but I’m just so worried about that home run rate. Nick Pollack and I discussed Smith at length on our latest Fireside which you can listen to here!