Top 125 SP for 2020
It’s time.
After offering up a first run all the way back in mid-August, I let the rest of the season play out but since then I’ve been working on SP rankings day-in and day-out. I contributed the starting pitcher section to the 2020 Fantasy Black Book so I had a working ranking for that but even since then (it was due back in early-December), I’ve made a ton of changes.
As you know, I feel there are globs of talent throughout the SP rankings wherein a 20, even 30 spot difference isn’t as vast as it seems because we’re splitting hairs between very similar arms and yet even knowing that I still agonize over the slottings and move guys up or down 2-3 spots like crazy before posting a new set of ranks. I decided on 125 for this one after paring down a list of 156 and yes, some of those remaining 31 are just as good as the last 7-8 on the list, but I had to cut it somewhere.
You’ll see tiers set up by the blue bars and that indicates the beginning of a new tier, but even those were hard to decide upon except the one starting at 99 which marks a group of prospects who I parked at that level because none are likely to make a rotation out of spring but all could be impactful at some point in 2020.
Enough chatter, let’s get to the rankings and start discussing them in the comments below. Again, if you think #44 should #38, I’m less interested in that as I probably agree that he could be. Let’s focus on the bigger splits, like if you feel #77 should be #40 or #28 should be #66, etc… Of course you can also just make comments or ask questions about a pitcher without relating it to their ranking. I’m open to discussing my thought process on any of the 125 pitchers.
These will be updated again in February and then once more in early March.
Check out Justin’s Top 126 SPs.
Note: these are catered for a roto league of 12-15 teams
the glob is for real after the first two tiers. you could swap 21-25 and 26-30 and wouldn’t get an argument from me.
also… I just noticed Josh James near the bottom. I’m a big fan/believer in the skills but skeptical he will get a chance to start. Where would you look to take him? Is he purely a speculative add or someone you’ll be actively targeting?
Right? It gets globby quickly and becomes hard to DEFINITIVELY rank guys. I feel good about where I have these guys and think everyone just needs to put down their preferences and then map out a draft plan. Some will simply take what the draft gives them, but I prefer to attack the globs and get the ones I think could greatly exceed their expectations, even if their base talent is similar to 10-12 others around them
Cole down at 4? You and Brad need to have a chat.
My favorite sleeper: Heaney at 67 with a sexy swinging strike rate.
Ya I just generally take a year off of guys on a mega deal with a new team to see how they adjust. I don’t think Cole is going to be *bad* by any stretch, just that I have him last among those 4 mega-aces.
Agreed re: Heaney and I’m actually quite bullish on the entire Angels rotation as they have a really sharp infield aiding them in addition to their own skill (most have solid swing-and-miss ability). Plus, once Adell is up, 2/3rds of the OF is really nice, too!
I think Cole is the best talent among the pitchers, and I would not be surprised at all if he does dominate. Some fantasy experts even think he should be taken 1 overall (batflipcrazy or something) but I am actually quite out on him. There is just so many variables, the Astros cheated last year with their hitters, what if some of that magic spin leaves on a new team? The AL east has some absolute thumpers as well. And I get that they just shelled out an absolute ton for a pitcher, but the Yankees also have the absolute best bullpen in the game, he might not go quite as deep in outings as prior. I get that doesn’t make a ton of sense with the contract, but they rarely ever let their aces go deep in games in the past. I get it, none of their aces were in Coles league, but if he starts leaving every game in the 5-6 inning range that is going to hurt from a fantasy perspective.
Scherzer and DeGrom would get ERA boosts from playing in NL and for DeGrom, playing in a pitcher’s park.
I think it makes sense strictly from a fantasy perspective
Yu Darvish stuck out to me as way too high at first glance.
Not a fan? I’m buying into that 2H. Obviously not saying he’ll maintain that exact BB%, but I expect him to hold some of the gains and be really good all year in 2020
*sigh* you’re going to talk me into keeping Darvish over Flaherty and I’m going to curse you all season for it.
Daaamn that is a tough choice!! I don’t envy you!
Keep Flaherty all day long over Darvish . . . not close imo.
Completely agreed. I came down to the comments to post about Darvish being in a higher tier than Flaherty, and found that everyone beat me to the punch.
And Paul, if it is a tough choice between Darvish and Flaherty, why are they in different tiers? Also, I am curious—why do you buy into Darvish’s second half but not Flaherty’s? And does injury danger count at all? (Not that Flaherty as a young pitcher is immune, but Darvish has a long history.)
Bc Darvish’s was skill change/improvement while Flaherty’s is more “run-hot” than any major development: .206 BABIP/94% LOB.
Darvish has a longer tracker record and a much deeper arsenal. And no the injury history doesn’t really move anything. Every SP carries major injury risk, there’s nothing chronic for Darvish that gives him added risk.
I don’t dislike Flaherty, but the anointing of him as a bona fide unquestioned ace on half a season is very interesting…
I won’t call Flaherty an unquestioned ace because I think there are only exactly four of them this year, but I also think that it’s shortchanging him to say his season was driven more by BABIP/LOB than skill change/improvement. His velocity has ticked up steadily every half since the start of 2018 and sat +2 mph in this past half, then it did in the first half of 2018 and he also adjusted his pitch mix in the 2nd half this season, dumping some four-seam for more two-seamer/sliders.
While throwing more two-seamers may not always be the best idea, Flaherty raised his overall GB% by seven points and a lot of that came from the two-seam, as its ground-ball rate increased 10-points to 57.6% (not to mention it’s SwStr almost doubling). The already awesome slider got even more so in the 2nd half and while his curveball usage stayed the same (12%), the results (and shape, to a lesser extent) didn’t.
Less movement (horizontal and vertical), more spin, and a swinging-strike that went from 6.7% to 15.2%. So he has a fastball getting faster, a primo slidepiece, a seemingly more dialed-in pitch mix that got better results after being changed, and his two lesser secondaries dramatically jumped in GB%, SwStr%, and overall performance.
For me, that’s a checklist of a breakout based more in skill, than it was in luck and therefore has a better chance of continuing. I’m not going to ignore his obviously unsustainable BABiP/LOB%, so I can’t reasonably expect him to put up the 0.97 ERA and 0.70 WHIP he had in his last 16 starts. But isn’t that only saying he doesn’t belong with the Quadrinity of Justice that occupies the top of your list, and not necessarily that he deserves to tumble down to #20? And past Noah Syndergaard??? That makes me think you only want to make me sad.
Msg from Paul: I’m editing this to break up the big block of text to make it more readable, I’m not changing ANYTHING in the actual text.
All good, sir. It was a hot mess of a wall of text 😉
Agreed. I think Darvish could have a great year too, and I am in on him so to speak…but to buy into Darvish second half and not Flahertys better second half is cray cray
Good thing I’m not doing that. 🙂
Flaherty definitely over darvish but both will be good
Great stuff Paul!
I was expecting Musgrove and Heaney to be closer together in the ranks.
Is the Canning rank based on health concerns?
Yes Canning is down there bc of health and that’s also impacting Heaney a bit and why he was a little further from Musgrove than he’d be if I could be guaranteed health for him
Marcus Stroman seems awfully low. His projections and track record are better than the majority of the dudes in the tier above his.
I like Stroman, I really do, but he took a hit because of the infield defense behind him. He needs a good one to maximize his skills and they don’t have that in NY. He felt it when he got there with a .337 BABIP.
Paul, there’s still A LOT of value in a guy that’ll (barring injury, like every other SP) will throw 175+ innings. The K/9 hurts, but it’s hard not to put him as a top 75 SP bc of work load.
I also think the top 6 are the aces and the next 10 or so starting with Snell could be a group basically thought of as “cusp aces” (coined here first), although I disagree with some of the guys in 7-20.
This is cool though man, nice work.
I’d almost say it’s 5, with Sale as an asterisk. His health will be something to watch for sure this spring.
Ya if Sale is healthy and looking like it in Spring, he’s at 5 and grouped in with the other 4 mega-aces. I don’t think Buehler is in that group yet, though.
That’s fair enough. It’s interesting how those other 4 have kind of separated like you note into their own group.
I agree with you on the not Buehler front, but I’d put Snell up there.
in a H2H weekly context, not buying Ohtani at near that price. He may not get a two start week for the entire season, and may miss some weeks entirely.
Also, LAD in 2019 seemed to be hugely reluctant to give Stripling much run in the rotation.
They had more options in 2019.
Wouldn’t H2H be Ohtani’s best format since most are daily moves and you can slot him into the lineup more readily when he’s not pitching?
Ah, it’s a weekly league, so I’m actually convinced in my format Ohtani is almost useless as both a batter and a pitcher.
Ah OK, ya he’s tougher in a weekly lg. That said, you don’t need a huge IP volume to be good these days and his talent is undeniably immense so I think he’s good enough to start even as a once-a-week guy in H2H, though I understand not wanting to pay the premium for that league type since he’ll almost NEVER get the coveted 2-start week and if you can’t also benefit from his hitting potential
I understand you’re concern. I too am in the same type of H2H league (AL only) but the dearth of quality SP actually makes him valuable. If his owner throws him back into the auction I’ll be a buyer if his price doesn’t get out of hand
Flaherty seems to be someone you’re bucking consensus on. Any reason you’ve got him so low?
It’s one half. I just think he’s being wildly overrated based on it. I think he’s good (hence the 20 ranking), but top 10 feels insane on the heels of just one half, even acknowledging how great a half it was
But it wasn’t just one half. He also had a great rookie year in 2018. Just seems strange to me that you’d have guys like Darvish, Giolito, Castillo, Severino, and Syndergaard ranked ahead of Flaherty when Jack outperformed all of them over the last two years (and not just over his fantastic 2nd half last year). Jack’s also the youngest of all those guys and I would say has the highest ceiling among them.
Except 2H 2019 is doing most of the heavy lifting to put him above those guys over the last 2 yrs. If you look at it thru June 2019, he’s 4th in ERA and FIP among the 6. Taking it through ’19 moves him to 1st in ERA, but still 3rd in FIP.
Nevertheless, I’m not wholly against wanting Flaherty over some of these guys as they’re so tightly ranked, but how does he have the most upside? Just because he’s younger? I don’t really buy that. He’s the only one lacking a true third offering and/or a changeup so if anything, I’d make the opposite argument in regards to ceiling.
I’m not trying to ignore his 2018, you’re right to bring it up, but the case for him as a bona fide ace is being made primarily on a 2H that doesn’t really show any sustainability to it. I like Flaherty, I’m just worried the hype train is taking off a bit too much
My argument that he has the greatest upside is partially based on age but also on his overall body of work. I’ve watched a lot of Jack’s games since early 2018 and he seems like he’s really good at making adjustments (which I would say is the most important ability in a baseball player), and his stats and career arc seem to reflect this – he was fast tracked through the minors, he hit the ground running in 2018, but then stumbled in early 2019 before making some adjustments and dominating down the stretch. And I’m going to counter your lack of a third offering argument by saying that the fact he’s been this good in his first 2 years without a true third offering means he definitely has the higher ceiling than the 5 pitchers I previously mentioned because if he develops that third pitch, and he is only 24 which gives me faith that he can, he will be THAT much better. As someone who has owned Jack since 2018 in my keeper league, I hope I’m right ha.
I’d rank Flaherty a little higher than Paul but pre-Strasburg is usually not a price I’m willing to pay. I have long thought Flaherty would be this good, but hoping that ADP falls a little bit. It’s a bummer when your favorites become unaffordable.
Strasburg was so, so good down the stretch last year.
Flaherty had a somewhat lucky season last year…had a .242 BABIP (unsustainable) and a high 83.3% LOB (probably unsustainable too). Fastball and curve spin are in the lower-50 percentile. Fastball is good but not dominant. I’ve got him higher than #20, yes, but I’ve seen him going in the top 7 pitchers…probably too high there. #12-#16 depending on scoring system seems about right.
In the scouting world Flaherty would get a major boost since he has a hot girlfriend so that means he has a lot of confidence.
giolito at 16 feels low with, say, bieber at 10 and severino at 17. the white sox seem likely to be at least a .500ish team, which should mean a few more Ws for Giolito, and their biggest addition was replacing McCann’s framing with Grandal’s. the rate stats between the two were pretty similar, with bieber’s a bit better in most things except Ks. the main difference between them were their teams, which is why giolito was shut down with a couple weeks to go, accounting for most of the innings gap between them. bieber’s BABIP against also suffers if lindor get traded.
severino i’m not drafting; power pitcher shoulder injuries terrify me, even with all the upside he has.
darvish scares me. i know DRA likes him a lot but he might have his ERA and Ws suffer from whatever bad relievers are coming out of that bullpen. cubs seem like a mess. an upside play but i’d prefer if he were the 3rd pitcher i drafted, which seems unlikely.
nola, berrios, and paddack feel a bit low, particularly paddack when montas is 9 spots ahead.
Curious how close Taijuan Walker, Joe Palumbo, Joe Ross came to making this list. I get that none of them have defined rotation spots, but . . .
Need a team and some news on Taijuan, but I’m a looong time fan so I could see him creeping into the top 125 once he lands and assuming news is good on his health.
Palumbo I need to study more, he’s buried on my list as I just don’t know a ton.
Ross, I’m out. I was once a believer but I’m having a hard time seeing how he finds a path to real fantasy viability this year. I also think Voth could snake his spot eventually and run with it.
I’ve struggled with my own projections/rankings with Syndergaard and Marquez, in particular. Thor has the great peripherals and always “feels” like he’s going to put it all together one year but always seems to put up mediocre numbers in a pitchers park. On the other extreme Marquez has the potential to be a monster but he gets knocked down by Coors.
I can’t quit Thor, though I will say another meh year and I will start moving him way down. I’m giving him one more shot with a new management regime in charge to see if he can finally meet his lofty expectations.
And yes, Marquez is just hurt by Coors and I’m simply not going to bet against that park.
Lance McCullers feels really low to me in your rankings. I like his upside a lot but obviously very difficult to figure out where he’ll be coming off TJ. What went into your thought process on him?
Low? How many innings can you really give him? The talent is obvious, but projected him north of 120 IP at this point is impossible. He may exceed it, but there’s no way I’d go into the season expecting it.
I thought they said no restrictions ? Maybe that was just about the beginning of the year but it seems like they really need him and, heck, maybe post TJS there’s no reason to baby him anymore?
I’d love to see him turned loose, but we just haven’t at all yet so I ranked him a bit cautiously. He’s one of several guys who will rise substantially if he enters spring looking sharp and healthy (CMart will, too, once we hear he’s 100% in the rotation).
If McCullers can be solid for 120 IP over 4 months then he’s worth a good deal more because you can then put someone else in that roster spot for the other 2 months.
Terrific piece but wow, Max Fried at 25? His historical walk rate along with the hr/FB ratio really scares me off him. I like the others in that tier a lot more, but only time will tell.
I’m surprised by Fried. Influenced by his FIP? He’s run generally high Babip numbers thru his minor league career too. Think he just gets squared up too often.
Fair critiques, but I’m encouraged by the velo bump and slider development. He’ll now enter 2020 knowing he has 3 legit offerings and I’m hoping that helps him curb the issue of getting blown up too much. I’m definitely planting my flag here and betting on some real growth.
Why Paddack so low?
Maybe just short MLB track record and no real third pitch?
So in a hold forever points league, if I’ve got only four spots left for pitchers (and that’s kissing Muncy, Grandal, and VRobles goodbye), which pitchers would you hold? Buehler, Morton, Giolito, Montas, Paddack, Ohtani? Love Morton, but the future, Mr. Gittes, the future!
Buehler,Paddack,Giolito VRobles
Buehler, Paddack, Giolito, & Morton. By a mile, IMO.
Forget Robles, there are plenty of decent OFs in points and you don’t need speed in that format.
If I got Sale for 50 in an auction last season, what kind of discount should I expect going into this year’s draft?
Massive, as he is currently the 11th pitcher off the board
Im am really not feeling John Means at all. I would take of half of the guys in the bottom glob over him. Samardzija also seems high. I personally would put Lamet in the Urias and Boyd glob. I also think there is something there with Turnbull, and I like that he is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the rotation. He would be higher for me.
Samardzija was quite good last year.
Fiers, Keuchel and Lester… dull as beans but man, I bet at least two out of three of them perform better than many of the guys 20 spots above them. Heck, Brett Anderson isn’t even ranked but he’s a consistently solid pitcher to round out a pitching staff.
Sure, but they are dull as beans and easy to replicate even off the wire, so why draft them over guys with higher upsides? If the higher upside guys don’t pan out, move on and get a dull replacement
Understood, but in regards to someone like Fiers or Anderson, there’s some allure in getting a quality start in 6-7 innings with maybe a win tossed in. I know middle relievers are the way to go if one can get a few good ones, but perhaps I’m just tired of seeing some of those ‘higher upside’ guys blow up the ratios in 2-3 innings of garbage. Drop ’em if they do that, I get it, but I think there’s some value in safe to begin with.
Lester has also been doing the just about to turn into the worst pitcher in the MLB dance for about 5 seasons now. One of these years it just has to happen…right?
Anderson is so injury prone I’d be pressed going after him even in an AL only league.
This is very useful in planning for the upcoming season. I like that you are high on Giolito, whereas others seem too hesitant to rank him as high as I think he deserves from what he showed last season.
Three guys that stand out to me with good upside to outperform their rankings (I come from a points league context) are Lamet, Keuchel, and Eflin.
U like Keuchel and Eflin? Can u join my league?! 😉
Do you think both maeda and stripling both get a full workload of innings?
Gonsolin as well?
Well the other two just seem crazy high around 40 for non-guaranteed starters. I can deal with gonsolin after 100.
Maeda is definitely in the rotation. He will likely be jerked around in the 2H, but he’s in. Despite their annual shenanigans he was 34th on Razzball’s Player Rater among SPs, so I have no problem with him at 38.
Stripling is more of a bet, but I think he’s at least Maeda’d wherein he starts for the first several months and then could find his way into the pen later in the summer. Even still, he can do enough to be really useful. Again, I’ll worry about 2H in the 2H, preseason rankings should be seen more as 2-3 month ranks. The pitching landscape is far too fluid to have any real confidence in them as 6-month ranks.
No way . . . too many SP options. After Buehler there’s Kershaw and Urias and Maeda and Stripling and Gonsolin and May and now Nelson as well.
Definitely not
No and no. Dodgers will run Buehler out every turn, spread the rest around. They just have so much depth and they prioritize rest & health more than many teams, particularly because they figure to cruise into the playoffs again.
will be interesting to see how that changes with IL up to 15 from 10. While at 10, it’s only 1 start, now 15 days and it’s 2 starts. Definitely changes the algebra for them.
Agreed and definitely gives me a bit more confidence in Maeda & Stripling, at least for the 1H. If I’m being honest, I’m not that worried about the 2H when it comes to a January ranking as so much will change that thinking so far in advance is rather futile
Maeda will be manipulated bc of his contract in the 2H again per usual. Stripling, I hooope, but even if not, he should be a useful staff filler even at RP
Interested to hear more about your prospect glob 100 to 107. Who do you see as having significant upside within your pre-season ranking?
Could definitely do an article on them as well as Pearson, Mize, Manning and maybe a couple others, I think I’ll do that
Thanks!
Great stuff! How are you feeling about Jordan Montgomery?
Huge fan, just no room at the inn right now
Nola at 27? As a Nola owner and following his every outing, it seemed he was pitching in inclement weather in April/ May and June. He did have a sub 3 ERA in May nonetheless. Once July and August rolled around, he was as good as it gets. Not sure if the workload, or the Phillies collapse attributed to a horrible Sept. 2019 certainly paled to his 2018, and I’m cautiously optimistic in a bounce back under Joe G.
Writing off 4 months of the season as bad weather/team collapse/work load? Seems like a lot of excuses, and ones that I wouldn’t necessarily bank on changing.
What’s the scoring system used here?
Roto, I’ll put a note in the intro
Just curious why McKay ranked so low? Playing time concerns?
Ya I don’t trust TB at all. They’ll definitely jerk him around. He’s not even projected to be a starter breaking camp: Snell, Morton, Glasnow, Yarbrough, Chirinos. I like the talent, but he’s hard to draft with any confidence right now. If we get some clarity and it’s in his favor, I’ll definitely move him up
Wait hold the farm. No conficence? They’ll jerk him around? He didn’t pitch a ton in college, got 20IP in 2018, 80 in 2018 and70 in minors last year and another 50IP in big leagues. He’s raw, but really impressive, I expect him to start over Yarbrough or Chirinos and he can probably handle 150IP. I don’t understand how him and May are ranked so low on both lists when the talent is so obvious AND they already have MLB experience. They are both screaming breakout. I guess I’ll be buying both in the leagues I am in.
Disagree Slappy. They are going to do what they always do, and use Yarbrough with an opener, and use 6-7 different starters/bulk guys consistently. Beeks will also get some use. McKay is young, and I think they want to see what is there with the bat, and with the way Tampa is always up to something, I could see them doing something where he both pitches and plays the field in the same game.
Not saying you’re wrong or that I disagree, but the top 30 names you seem to be bucking the trend on are: Cole, Flaherty, Sale, Syndergaard, Paddack, Montas, Bauer, and Fried.
That’s a pretty accurate list. I’m going to do a piece on my biggest differences with the NFBC’s early ADP and explain where I’m at with the ones I’m super-high or super-low on.
Here are 3 guys I move up considerably:
Flaherty from 20 into the bottom half of the top 10. Stud with a solid D behind him.
Urias from 54 to 35, right after Wheeler. Velo gains + rotation spot = payoff.
Luzardo from 56 to the high 20s or low 30s range. Future ace with a job. Betting on his stuff.
Here are 3 guys I drop a bunch:
Darvish from 14 to 32, right after Berrios. Concerns over HR issue, stronger NL central opponents.
Maeda from 38 to the mid 60s. Dodgers will spread his innings around (again).
Ray from 44 to useless in 12-team leagues (in the 80s). Velo drop + control issues = trouble.
Love reading this so thanks for all your hard work, Paul.
I’ll meet u guys in the middle on Darvish…#23! 🙂
I was a little surprised at the Urias ranking too – the only consideration is the amount of innings he’ll throw, it’ll likely be capped somewhere north of 130 (I’m guessing). But I’d rather have 130+ high impact innings than 175 good to very good innings.
Certainly agree on Urias. He might get the Maeda treatment a bit as well, but he has a spot, and has been a borderline ace thus far in his mlb career.
How close are Yamamoto and Thornton? Surprised they didn’t sneak in there.
Bauer was not good for a large stretch of last season, but what do you see in the underlying skill set to have him in the 40s? I need to make a keeper decision on him and was hoping for a bounce-back. Thanks for all your work on this!
He really has just the one great season, everything else is over 4.00 with crappy WHIPs and a ton of Ks. I just don’t think he’s anywhere near as proven as he’s treated. The ace-like season is doing a lot of the work in overrating him. I’d pass on keeping him in most formats. Who are you deciding against and what kinda format?
I am also looking to keep Bauer – have him for only $6 in 12-tm mixed, I was even thinking I would add $5 to that to keep him for 2 years, but this is making me reconsider
also keeping Beiber (6) Darvish (14) Montas (10) … for context tho, Degrom went for 72, Kluber 60, Carasco 56 as the top available pitchers last year
Ten total keepers with other considerations for the bottom few spots guys like W Contreras (5) Danny Santana (10) Mercado (10) Julio Urias (3) Carlos Martinez (3) Aroldis Chapman (15) Dollite (6) C Walker (10) JD Davis (10) — including Bauer, need to keep 4 of this group
I get 7 keepers in a h2h weekly points league. My top 5 are solid, then I have 2 spots between Berrios, Bauer, Kepler, and Kyle Tucker (for upside). I gather you’d take Berrios as one…
Plesac seems like a guy in that bottom tier who could jump a lot if he learned how to miss some bats. He throws quite a bit harder than Gallen or Civale and they’re all over the top RHPs although Plesac seems to have the least deceptive motion.
Agree on Plesac’s potential this year. Let’s see how the season unfolds but he could end up on this list by the All-Star break. He can throw! His move to 1st tells all you need to know about his smooth moves. His Uncle Dan has taught him well.
Good callout. I’ve got a little green arrow next to him in my Excel as I think there could be more here especially since I trust CLE’s SP development, but I played it cautiously with his initial rank due to a lack of bat-missing and his minor lg BB% not translating into the majors.
I’m a bit more keen on Civale’s arsenal and think he’s got a lot more swing-and-miss presently. Meanwhile, Gallen has that great changeup and already showed his ability to miss bats at the major league level.
Just FWIW: Last season, Plesac, 94 mph FB velo, 9.5 percent SwStr; Civale, 92.2, 8.8.
I’m aware, but Civale has 4 pitches with a 13%+ SwStr rate. His rate is held down by virtually 0 whiffs on his heat. He also has a 38% chase rate on the non-heaters.
Plesac does have that slider as a nice swing-and-miss pitch, but give me the guy with the deeper arsenal.
Paul,
Surprised a bit to see Kopech listed considering he is still coming off an injury. The potenial is there. No question. But will he be ready to go Opening Day? If so I would expect to see him higher, or am I reading more into his skills then I should be?
Was looking to trade for Big Maple and then read this, saw him down at ,30 and am having second thoughts.
Hey Paul, great list here. What are your thoughts on Folty? See you have him at 60, and could see him out-pitching a few in the next 20 range. As you said, super tough to rank so can understand why he is at 60. Was he one you wrestled with?
Hey Paul
Curious what knocks Bieber out of the Ace tier? Seemed like he was in that group when you guys did that 2020 mock draft pod towards the end of the season
Since these are roto rankings, I’d guess it’s the relative lack of strikeouts (and lack of a multi-year track record doesn’t help).
Lack of strikeouts? 3rd most in the majors last year
On a K-per-inning basis, Bieber is behind the others in his new neighborhood. Steamer projects him under 10 K/9, which is not true of any of the other “aces”.
Dude, you forgot to rank the Mariner’s starters.
LOL, I wouldn’t say I forgot. Kikuchi, Dunn, and Sheffield were just outside the Top 125.
So you’re saying this is the year, M’s fans. This is the year.
Am I correct that you are not expecting a lot from Jake Arrieta in 2020? Thoughts on him?
You are correct. Sinking SwStr%, rising BB%… just not interested.
Also, couldn’t-wouldn’t Logan Gilbert, Mariners, and Tarik Skubal, Tigers, be considered guys who could be impact later in the season also? I know those things are tough to predict but those teams seem to present lots of opportunity by not being real good.
The Tigers aren’t even likely to bring Mize up until September other than maybe a spot start. They have a host of poor options they’ll try before they’ll allow circumstance to force their hand on Mize/Manning/Skubal. Guys like Godley, Tyler Alexander, Kyle Funkhouser, Beau Burrows will all get plenty of chances to fail first.
What makes Civale a better choice than Gonsolin, for you? They seem like somewhat similar, as far as abilty and opportunity in 2020.
Opportunity. I think Civale has a muuuuuuch higher chance at getting even 25 starts, let alone 30.
Do you think Dylan Bundy is the nicest pitcher?
Sooo nice
Montas….since alot of his success seemed to occur with his breakout of a splitter and that pitch is hard to master and has a tendency to come and go what leads you to believe he’ll be able to reach the tier you have him placed? Plus the long absence from competition certainly doesn’t help. I’ll be watching closely how he does in ST.
The suspension has zero impact on my outlook of him, tbh. I understand your point re: the splitter, but he still has a great slider and solid fastball to cover him if/when the splitter wavers. I also like that he returned for a start at the end of the season and picked up right where he left off
Thanks Paul, great work as always. IMHO the blue bands(tiers) are too wide and you need more tiers with less players in them. For example there should be one between 4/5 and 16/17. Just sayen.
I hear ya, but the tiers are big. The talent gaps just aren’t that large when you really boil things down.
Paul: Someone asked earlier, but I didn’t see a response. What is your take on Trent Thornton (TOR)? He had a strong finish in September… I rewatched those starts and he looked impressive. Decent swing/miss and a lot of weak contact. Thoughts?
Puk seems a little high for me. Love the talent, but realistically how many inning do you expect from him?
This brings back memories of the old RotoJunkie days with your Tiers of Starting Pitching posts!
One thing that caught my attention was that you have 7 Astros pitchers in you top 125.
1. Verlander
19. Greinke
63. McCullers
65. Urquidy
80. Peacock
100. Whitley
123. James
I’m interested in knowing your thought on this.
Do you think there is a good chance Whitley is up early if he has a good Spring? And if so would you jump him above Peacock?
I personally like James’ upside, but do you just think he might profile better as a reliever.
Obviously McCullers and Spring training is going to be huge, is this ranking assuming 140 IP or something like that?
Greatly appreciate your work!
Domingo German??
Didn’t rank bc of the suspension
Any chance you can share some thoughts on where you’d rank him if not for the suspension? Gracias!!
Or put another way — what about German in H2H? Hard to take the two-month hit in a roto league, but where would he rank among June-Sept starters if you think you can hang in the playoff hunt until he gets back?
Max Fried over Soroka? Is that because of the K rate?
Nice job Paul. I love the fact that you don’t join “the sheep” and stick to the company line. In particular I agree 10 times over with your low ranking of Dallas Keuchel. I can’t figure out what people, even on radio or tv shows, or reporters etc see in him. He will be 33 years old. He can barely strike out his sister. His FIP was horrible last year. He is pitching in the American League and in a hitters ball park. And there is no upside. I don’t even put him on my list. And before someone laughs at me, I’m fairly successful in the NFBC, so I know my stuff. (as do many people on this site).
Others I agree with, where again, you state your opinion/ranking rather than the sheep rankings, are Mike Fiers, Jon Lester, Zach Plesac and Zach Davies, plus the so called “up and comer” in Minnesota, Randy Dobnak. Even late in a draft/auction, I would never touch and of those guys. Great work. YOUR rankings are YOUR rankings and good job.
Jose Quintana link takes your to the bluejays rookie ball pitcher. I thought 111 was a little too low for him, but its probably too high if you are referring the other one.
This is a glob, with that said those over 40 who have the best chance to be in the top 40 at year end are Price, Keuchel, D. May, McKay, M. Kelly, Desclafani, R. Lopez, C. Hamels, S. Alcantara, Heany, Cease. The only problem I have with this list is overestimated some pitchers that have really big injury and/or other risk like Garrett Richards, Cueto, Maneae, etc. Those guys, to me, aren’t really worth a flier. Give me a Puk, May, even a Merrill Kelly who I know at least has the opportunity to improve if he’s pitching.
“The only problem I have with this list is overestimated some pitchers that have really big injury and/or other risk like Garrett Richards, Cueto, Maneae, etc. Those guys, to me, aren’t really worth a flier.”
Concur. To me, those kinds of guys are kinda worthless. Sure, one or two of them a year may play up to decent-ish, but it’s not worth the huge risk that they don’t. Pitching isn’t like hitting, you can’t stick a mediocre guy in there to bump up your counting stats. The damage they do to your rate stats is too great.
Maybe there was a response and I just missed it but why do you have Paddack so low? More of a hate on sophomore slump and how he ran out of gas, or just waiting for a repeat before he jumps up? Either way unless hes hurt or sent down I cant imagine a world where he finishes behind Kluber, Soroka, Gray etc. I was thinking somewhere between 11 and 18 with top 5 upside. Thoughts?
I guess I’d wanna know what you mean by “so low”? I certainly don’t feel like 30 is so low.
I’m a fan for sure, but I definitely don’t agree that there’s no world where those 3 finish ahead of him considering Gray and Soroka already did that just last year and Kluber is a 2-time Cy so if he’s healthy, he should be great again.
Honeywell’s gonna be a hell of a wildcard.
Paul, you certainly might end up right about where you put Frankie Montas, but IMO you’re placing way too much stock in not even half a season of results. You mentioned in the comments about not overrating to Flaherty’s second half, but that’s exactly what you’re doing with Montas’ first half.
He looked good for his only start post-suspension, but the only major league caliber hitters he faced in an absolutely meaningless late September game were Fletcher, Simmons and (if you’re feeling generous) Pujols. If we’re in any leagues together, you’ll definitely be drafting Montas before he’s in my queue.
Edit: I should add Goodwin to that ML list.
Thanks Paul! If Kyle Wright gets a rotation spot in Atlanta does he crack the top 80?
Not sure why Nate Pearson isn’t among the prospects at #99 who is likely to make an impact starting May/June.
Admit it, you just wanted to put Castillo, Giolito, and Severino next to each other because their names look cool in a row, right?
Think Michael Fiers is 2 tiers too low.
Lance Lynn seems… awfully low
Thankfully I rely on others to rely on your advice.
On the off chance you read this, I don’t see a consistent methodology among your ranks.
Wow, I can’t believe I found an expert who actually agrees with me on Flaherty’s value. Why is Caleb Smith all the way down at 76? I’m not sure what the consensus is on him but I was thinking of him as a borderline top 50 player.
I am a huge fan of Stripling, but that high of a ranking depends on league context imo. In my money league where volume is very important (and SP deep), there is no way I can justify drafting him that high when the odds are high that he spend half the season using up a roster spot while he wastes away in the bullpen.
Samardjia over Boyd is ridiculous imo but otherwise good work! Thanks as always
Paul, what about Archer’s second half? Shouldnt he be dramatically higher on the list? He is a lot better than Folty for instance who is ranked 25 spots ahead
See Woodruff in Top 25 almost everywhere. Love the stuff, but worried about the IPs. Only 120 last three seasons. Is there any reasonable path to something more than 140 or so.
How could Paul answer that? You should probably expect less than 150 IP as that has always been all he is capable of. Don’t mistake that for not being a knock because it is despite what people have to say about it. Just draft him expecting less than you would from Paxton and you are probably about right. Maybe he could be more durable than Paxton, but he could also be less so think about that when you build a staff around him.
Why would you want Chirinos and Yarborough at all? Their value is not clear to me. I wouldn’t have them in the top 125.