Thoughts On Early Pitching ADP

by
November 2, 2022

2023 Drafts are now in full force over at the National Fantasy Baseball Contest, which has become an industry leader in terms of research for average draft position (ADP) data. NFBC ADP is especially useful because it involves only paid contests and many of the top players in the world play on the platform. As of now, there have been 11 completed drafts on the site with many more being done as we speak. Most of these drafts are 15-team draft champions leagues which are 50-round draft and hold formats. After completing one of those drafts myself recently and looking at the ADP, here are some of my thoughts on how the early ADP is shaping up.

Starting Pitching
When you get past Shoehei Ohtani (eligible at UT and P), Corbin Burnes and Gerrit Cole, there is no real consensus on who the “elite” starting pitchers are. A quick look at the top of the SP ADP paints a picture that there isn’t a clear order to the top 10-15 starters once you get past Cole and Burnes if we exclude Ohtani because of his hitter eligibility increasing his value.

NFBC ADP on Starting Pitchers 1-15
Rk Player Team Position(s) ADP / AAV Min Max
1 Shohei Ohtani LAA P, UT 6.91 2 11
2 Corbin Burnes MLW P 14.64 9 20
3 Gerrit Cole NYY P 15.36 5 23
4 Sandy Alcantara MIA P 24.36 17 30
5 Dylan Cease CWS P 25.09 15 42
6 Brandon Woodruff MLW P 27.36 19 34
7 Shane McClanahan TB P 31 21 57
8 Jacob deGrom NYM P 33 20 50
9 Aaron Nola PHI P 34.55 25 42
10 Spencer Strider ATL P 36 22 66
11 Julio Urias LAD P 40.45 30 60
12 Max Scherzer NYM P 42.55 22 53
13 Zack Wheeler PHI P 42.91 29 55
14 Justin Verlander HOU P 47.27 34 80
15 Shane Bieber CLE P 51.55 36 63
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
Shohei Ohtani is UT and P eligible making him more valuable than he would be if he was just an SP.

Only Burnes is the one of the group that is considered a first round pick in a 15-team league. If we look at the min picks, we begin to see how confused the population is so early. 13 of the top 15 have been taken at least once in the first two rounds and eight of them have had drafts where they have fallen outside of the first three rounds. This will tighten up as people do more research and we will start to see starting pitching move up in drafts as we always do in March, but as of now there is no real consensus here.

The lack of consensus filters all the way down the ADP with many guys were breakouts in 2022 like Drew Rasmussen, Brady Singer, and Patrick Sandoval and many others not being overly expensive. It also has made bounce back candidates very expensive. Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Trevor Rogers, Jose Berrios, Frankie Montas, and Lance McCullers are all going between picks 160 and 220.

Personally, I think this offers some nice buying options if you are ok with the SP2’s and 3’s of the pool. In the draft I just did, I loaded up on these types, taking the last guys available in each of my pitching tiers as the draft went on as opposed to wading into the higher end of the pool and targeting certain studs. I really like how my pitching staff turned out. That strategy is not for everyone as you need to be patient and know when to strike.

 

Closers
Closers are expensive once again. There are 20 relievers going inside of the top 200 picks with two inside the top two rounds.

NFBC ADP on Relief Pitchers 1-20
Rk Player Team Position(s) ADP / AAV Min Max
1 Edwin Diaz NYM P 32.82 23 43
2 Emmanuel Clase CLE P 32.82 29 40
3 Jordan Romano TOR P 47 34 61
4 Josh Hader SD P 47.91 36 58
5 Liam Hendriks CWS P 49.18 43 60
6 Ryan Pressly HOU P 60.82 48 73
7 Devin Williams MLW P 64.18 50 80
8 Felix Bautista BAL P 77.64 66 99
9 Raisel Iglesias ATL P 82.09 43 117
10 Ryan Helsley STL P 86.09 67 109
11 Kenley Jansen ATL P 88.36 71 127
12 Camilo Doval SF P 89 75 108
13 Scott Barlow KC P 117.55 91 142
14 Daniel Bard COL P 125.27 111 135
15 Jhoan Duran MIN P 131.18 97 168
16 Clay Holmes NYY P 140.09 61 204
17 Alexis Diaz CIN P 148.91 102 224
18 Gregory Soto DET P 167.09 117 216
19 Paul Sewald SEA P 185.91 142 235
20 Andres Munoz SEA P 189.64 153 242
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball

Some of these relievers going inside of the top 200 picks don’t even have established roles like Kenley Jansen (free agent), Jhoan Duran (potential committee or fireman), Clay Holmes (Yankees could sign someone), Alexis Diaz (potential committee), Paul Sewald and Andres Munoz (potential committee). I think the lack of clarity on the back end of the closer pool may continue to drive up prices on the top 10 closers as draft season continues which is something we have seen in recent years.

This means if you want an established closer, you need to be aggressive on them. This is my preferred strategy. If you are playing in a draft and hold format, then you can’t pick up guys in season. If you are playing in a FAAB or waiver format, you do not want to be spending a ton of your money or time attempting to finding the next closer because you didn’t draft a safe one. The old Matthew Berry mantra of “don’t pay for saves” is a fallacy. You either pay for them at the draft table or in-season. The people who say that they will find a closer off of the waiver wire don’t account for everyone else trying to do the same thing even if they don’t have a deficit at closer. I prefer to get them in the draft and use my resources in season to plug holes or fill in for injuries. To me there is a clear top eight closers and I want to leave every draft with at least one of them if not two if possible.

 

Here is the complete ADP for pitchers. Who are your favorite and least favorite pitchers based on price?

 

NFBC Pitcher ADP: 11/2/2022
Rk Player Team Position(s) ADP / AAV Min Max
1 Shohei Ohtani LAA P, UT 6.91 2 11
2 Corbin Burnes MLW P 14.64 9 20
3 Gerrit Cole NYY P 15.36 5 23
4 Sandy Alcantara MIA P 24.36 17 30
5 Dylan Cease CWS P 25.09 15 42
6 Brandon Woodruff MLW P 27.36 19 34
7 Shane McClanahan TB P 31 21 57
8 Edwin Diaz NYM P 32.82 23 43
9 Emmanuel Clase CLE P 32.82 29 40
10 Jacob deGrom NYM P 33 20 50
11 Aaron Nola PHI P 34.55 25 42
12 Spencer Strider ATL P 36 22 66
13 Julio Urias LAD P 40.45 30 60
14 Max Scherzer NYM P 42.55 22 53
15 Zack Wheeler PHI P 42.91 29 55
16 Jordan Romano TOR P 47 34 61
17 Justin Verlander HOU P 47.27 34 80
18 Josh Hader SD P 47.91 36 58
19 Liam Hendriks CWS P 49.18 43 60
20 Shane Bieber CLE P 51.55 36 63
21 Carlos Rodon SF P 51.73 31 76
22 Ryan Pressly HOU P 60.82 48 73
23 Kevin Gausman TOR P 62.64 42 86
24 Devin Williams MLW P 64.18 50 80
25 Max Fried ATL P 64.36 40 84
26 Alek Manoah TOR P 65.55 50 79
27 Luis Castillo SEA P 68.18 50 85
28 Joe Musgrove SD P 72.91 57 88
29 Zac Gallen ARZ P 74.09 55 101
30 Tyler Glasnow TB P 76.36 63 94
31 Felix Bautista BAL P 77.64 66 99
32 Yu Darvish SD P 81 62 101
33 Raisel Iglesias ATL P 82.09 43 117
34 Ryan Helsley STL P 86.09 67 109
35 Robbie Ray SEA P 86.27 61 100
36 Framber Valdez HOU P 87.64 77 105
37 Kenley Jansen ATL P 88.36 71 127
38 Camilo Doval SF P 89 75 108
39 Triston McKenzie CLE P 91.82 65 114
40 Cristian Javier HOU P 96.55 77 134
41 Logan Webb SF P 101.64 68 133
42 George Kirby SEA P 101.73 69 148
43 Kyle Wright ATL P 103.45 66 142
44 Nestor Cortes NYY P 109.73 64 138
45 Freddy Peralta MLW P 110.64 78 147
46 David Bednar PIT P 112.09 81 139
47 Hunter Greene CIN P 113.64 94 129
48 Logan Gilbert SEA P 114.45 100 134
49 Luis Severino NYY P 117 107 123
50 Scott Barlow KC P 117.55 91 142
51 Blake Snell SD P 118.55 92 155
52 Daniel Bard COL P 125.27 111 135
53 Jhoan Duran MIN P 131.18 97 168
54 Nick Lodolo CIN P 133.18 98 181
55 Clayton Kershaw LAD P 138.64 110 180
56 Clay Holmes NYY P 140.09 61 204
57 Joe Ryan MIN P 143.45 111 184
58 Lucas Giolito CWS P 145.64 125 172
59 Lance Lynn CWS P 148 124 188
60 Alexis Diaz CIN P 148.91 102 224
61 Jesus Luzardo MIA P 149.64 114 180
62 Chris Sale BOS P 154.55 126 197
63 Dustin May LAD P 154.91 130 175
64 Luis Garcia HOU P 156.55 122 194
65 Drew Rasmussen TB P 157.45 120 185
66 Jeffrey Springs TB P 158.45 96 215
67 Tony Gonsolin LAD P 159.91 103 211
68 Lance McCullers Jr. HOU P 160.18 118 197
69 Chris Bassitt NYM P 160.18 108 203
70 Pablo Lopez MIA P 161.55 107 186
71 Gregory Soto DET P 167.09 117 216
72 Jordan Montgomery STL P 176.82 142 201
73 Charlie Morton ATL P 178 130 210
74 Paul Sewald SEA P 185.91 142 235
75 Andres Munoz SEA P 189.64 153 242
76 Frankie Montas NYY P 196.64 160 233
77 Brady Singer KC P 199.55 148 267
78 Trevor Rogers MIA P 202.55 183 246
79 Edward Cabrera MIA P 203 140 319
80 Jack Flaherty STL P 208.91 152 278
81 Patrick Sandoval LAA P 214.45 157 255
82 Jon Gray TEX P 214.55 173 256
83 Grayson Rodriguez BAL P 215.82 185 299
84 Jose Berrios TOR P 216.82 168 285
85 Sonny Gray MIN P 218.27 188 251
86 Reid Detmers LAA P 223.27 197 254
87 Jose Leclerc TEX P 225.55 141 289
88 Bailey Ober MIN P 233.18 190 264
89 Nathan Eovaldi BOS P 234.36 201 285
90 Aaron Ashby MLW P 236.09 170 256
91 Andrew Heaney LAD P 241.27 146 291
92 Miles Mikolas STL P 247.82 196 282
93 Michael Kopech CWS P 248.55 192 327
94 Alex Cobb SF P 251.55 176 309
95 Seranthony Dominguez PHI P 251.55 213 336
96 Jorge Lopez MIN P 251.73 159 307
97 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARZ P 252.45 198 291
98 Pete Fairbanks TB P 252.91 183 329
99 Jose Urquidy HOU P 253 200 302
100 Eric Lauer MLW P 253.55 200 356
101 Tyler Mahle MIN P 255.36 171 313
102 Jameson Taillon NYY P 257.73 206 321
103 Ranger Suarez PHI P 257.82 211 316
104 Giovanny Gallegos STL P 260.36 186 350
105 Roansy Contreras PIT P 260.73 198 340
106 Tyler Anderson LAD P 261.64 192 311
107 Marcus Stroman CHC P 263.91 219 319
108 Hunter Brown HOU P 279.18 213 332
109 Garrett Whitlock BOS P 285.91 175 384
110 Hayden Wesneski CHC P 291.45 241 342
111 Eduardo Rodriguez DET P 293.18 182 378
112 Koudai Senga FA P 295.82 232 397
113 Kyle Finnegan WAS P 296.45 236 361
114 Taylor Rogers MLW P 299.73 173 412
115 Tylor Megill NYM P 305.82 202 407
116 Cal Quantrill CLE P 306.18 270 355
117 Taijuan Walker NYM P 306.64 193 382
118 Aroldis Chapman NYY P 308 169 455
119 Mike Clevinger SD P 310.27 240 380
120 Braxton Garrett MIA P 314.82 186 464
121 Justin Steele CHC P 318.09 262 410
122 Rafael Montero HOU P 318.55 238 404
123 Martin Perez TEX P 320.36 269 378
124 Dylan Floro MIA P 325.45 252 411
125 Drey Jameson ARZ P 326.36 274 388
126 Brayan Bello BOS P 329.09 271 382
127 Sean Manaea SD P 330.91 282 355
128 Ross Stripling TOR P 333.64 292 429
129 Carlos Carrasco NYM P 335.27 266 417
130 Josiah Gray WAS P 339.55 232 421
131 Aaron Civale CLE P 339.91 279 427
132 Tanner Houck BOS P 343.09 295 398
133 MacKenzie Gore WAS P 344.27 244 437
134 Kenta Maeda MIN P 344.36 255 411
135 Evan Phillips LAD P 346.55 253 500
136 James Karinchak CLE P 348.36 231 457
137 David Robertson PHI P 351.73 311 440
138 Steven Matz STL P 354.36 278 405
139 Jimmy Herget LAA P 355.55 254 463
140 Kyle Bradish BAL P 356 253 452
141 Mitch Keller PIT P 356.18 263 422
142 Craig Kimbrel LAD P 359.55 276 475
143 Cody Morris CLE P 362.91 295 412
144 David Peterson NYM P 365.36 292 449
145 Jose Quintana STL P 365.73 283 475
146 Noah Syndergaard PHI P 366.18 325 432
147 Alex Wood SF P 367.73 304 507
148 Domingo Acevedo OAK P 370.45 271 491
149 Jose Suarez LAA P 375 312 503
150 Luis Ortiz PIT P 378.36 284 436
151 Nick Pivetta BOS P 378.55 305 426
152 Mike Soroka ATL P 385.36 303 447
153 DL Hall BAL P 387.27 309 448
154 Michael Wacha BOS P 399.27 377 448
155 Blake Treinen LAD P 399.91 286 459
156 Tarik Skubal DET P 400.55 284 494
157 Ken Waldichuk OAK P 401.09 349 470
158 Zach Eflin PHI P 403.36 301 495
159 Domingo German NYY P 408.09 340 469
160 Adam Wainwright STL P 410.82 297 644
161 Bailey Falter PHI P 416 309 480
162 Andrew Painter FA P 421.45 290 518
163 A.J. Puk OAK P 423.45 365 483
164 Adbert Alzolay CHC P 424.09 351 505
165 Spencer Turnbull DET P 429.09 380 480
166 Ryne Nelson ARZ P 433 338 533
167 Cole Irvin OAK P 435.55 372 492
168 Jason Adam TB P 438.18 365 542
169 Brusdar Graterol LAD P 444.91 354 589
170 JP Sears OAK P 445.64 352 544
171 Brandon Hughes CHC P 450.36 257 567
172 Matt Brash SEA P 451.45 363 529
173 Tyler Wells BAL P 453 335 607
174 Dean Kremer BAL P 454.09 352 558
175 Corey Kluber TB P 455 379 513
176 JT Brubaker PIT P 456.82 354 569
177 Drew Smyly CHC P 457 371 542
178 Brandon Pfaadt FA P 458.73 391 551
179 Robert Suarez SD P 460.45 372 566
180 Anthony DeSclafani SF P 463.73 382 525
181 Nick Martinez SD P 465.55 244 616
182 John Schreiber BOS P 465.55 350 601
183 Jose Alvarado PHI P 466.73 334 594
184 Joey Wentz DET P 467.82 403 557
185 Michael Lorenzen LAA P 471.82 392 539
186 German Marquez COL P 474.09 404 538
187 Bryce Elder ATL P 475.18 367 582
188 Joe Barlow TEX P 475.73 300 667
189 John Means BAL P 477.82 314 615
190 Keegan Thompson CHC P 479.64 352 564
191 Ian Anderson ATL P 479.73 346 588
192 Luis Patino TB P 482.36 347 603
193 Sixto Sanchez MIA P 486.64 352 705
194 Matt Barnes BOS P 487.45 359 611
195 Cade Cavalli WAS P 488.27 336 569
196 Matt Manning DET P 488.82 358 667
197 Kyle Muller ATL P 489.91 436 539
198 Zach Plesac CLE P 490.36 400 577
199 Bobby Miller LAD P 491.45 311 618
200 Glenn Otto TEX P 493 360 634
201 Marco Gonzales SEA P 493.73 439 581
202 Taj Bradley FA P 494.73 393 596
203 James Kaprielian OAK P 499.18 436 594
204 Chris Martin LAD P 501.64 377 576
205 Ryan Pepiot LAD P 503.55 411 660
206 Johnny Cueto CWS P 509 364 661
207 Kyle Harrison FA P 509.18 424 689
208 A.J. Minter ATL P 512 414 601
209 Gavin Stone FA P 513.73 451 572
210 Nate Pearson TOR P 522.36 367 680
211 Tanner Scott MIA P 527.55 309 695
212 Kutter Crawford BOS P 527.82 443 663
213 Johan Oviedo PIT P 533.09 450 614
214 Kendall Graveman CWS P 534.73 309 711
215 Graham Ashcraft CIN P 538.45 465 619
216 Jonathan Loaisiga NYY P 544.73 329 719
217 Dane Dunning TEX P 546.82 425 684
218 Matthew Boyd SEA P 547.18 450 654
219 Daniel Lynch KC P 547.27 480 659
220 Mark Melancon ARZ P 550.91 318 720
221 Clarke Schmidt NYY P 556.73 468 683
222 Eury Perez FA P 559.64 484 654
223 Diego Castillo SEA P 560.09 389 674
224 Paul Blackburn OAK P 560.27 503 583
225 Jakob Junis SF P 561.45 473 672
226 Jordan Lyles BAL P 561.91 471 667
227 Kyle Hendricks CHC P 563.55 463 670
228 Daniel Espino CLE P 567 324 709
229 James Paxton BOS P 568.91 446 683
230 Austin Voth BAL P 569.91 415 650
231 Bryan Abreu HOU P 571.09 427 648
232 Kyle Gibson PHI P 575.18 486 690
233 Dany Jimenez OAK P 575.91 484 608
234 Jake Odorizzi ATL P 576.27 482 649
235 Daniel Hudson LAD P 577 425 666
236 Louie Varland MIN P 581.09 489 670
237 Simeon Woods Richardson MIN P 581.55 448 715
238 Hector Neris HOU P 586.82 513 643
239 Alex Vesia LAD P 588.36 472 698
240 Jorge Alcala MIN P 590.36 335 621
241 Chris Flexen 플렉센 SEA P 590.91 374 750
242 Trevor Stephan CLE P 590.91 337 686
243 Kyle Freeland COL P 592 494 668
244 Ricky Tiedemann FA P 595.18 490 685
245 Josh Winder MIN P 597.09 528 726
246 Yusei Kikuchi TOR P 597.91 499 734
247 Rowan Wick CHC P 601.73 427 737
248 Ryan Tepera LAA P 605 487 733
249 Lucas Sims CIN P 606.36 505 692
250 Corey Knebel PHI P 609 466 733
251 Brooks Raley 레일리 TB P 612 451 727
252 Joe Jimenez DET P 614.18 397 731
253 Joe Mantiply ARZ P 614.64 363 731
254 Matthew Liberatore STL P 615.73 529 669
255 Adrian Sampson 샘슨 CHC P 615.91 507 749
256 Wade Miley CHC P 622 535 685
257 Alex Lange DET P 623.09 409 700
258 Javier Assad CHC P 626.55 460 698
259 Erik Swanson SEA P 627 504 716
260 Adrian Morejon SD P 627.55 509 705
261 Quinn Priester PIT P 627.73 503 717
262 Dylan Coleman KC P 631.91 520 731
263 Tejay Antone CIN P 632.64 537 701
264 Will Smith HOU P 636.09 538 731
265 Stephen Strasburg WAS P 637.55 465 683
266 Manuel Rodriguez CHC P 638.18 432 730
267 Jonathan Hernandez TEX P 638.64 453 716
268 Chase Silseth LAA P 639.09 485 721
269 Michael Fulmer MIN P 640.91 474 726
270 Lou Trivino NYY P 644.36 457 734
271 Trevor Bauer LAD P 646.55 529 695
272 Jack Leiter FA P 647.36 396 743
273 Dylan Bundy MIN P 648.82 529 743
274 Jeremiah Estrada CHC P 649.09 533 725
275 Cole Winn TEX P 650.55 408 729
276 Elieser Hernandez MIA P 653.64 573 696
277 Brock Burke TEX P 656.27 544 730
278 Michael King NYY P 656.36 521 739
279 Yonny Chirinos TB P 658.64 560 664
280 Matt Moore TEX P 663.18 462 712
281 Davis Martin CWS P 663.27 530 717
282 Kris Bubic KC P 664.64 549 736
283 Dillon Tate BAL P 665.91 528 739
284 Collin McHugh ATL P 665.91 547 734
285 Eli Morgan CLE P 666.91 519 743
286 Caleb Kilian CHC P 667.27 523 724
287 Zack Greinke KC P 667.36 435 728
288 Gavin Williams FA P 669.82 513 735
289 Reynaldo Lopez CWS P 670.91 573 746
290 Hunter Harvey WAS P 671.55 591 747
291 Jordan Hicks STL P 677.09 566 736
292 Griffin Jax MIN P 677.64 485 719
293 Reyes Moronta ARZ P 683.09 522 744
294 Keegan Akin BAL P 685.82 593 718
295 Zach Jackson OAK P 686.82 532 750
296 Cole Sulser MIA P 687.45 472 547
297 Colin Poche TB P 691.36 579 738
298 Yency Almonte LAD P 692 369 705
299 Mitch White TOR P 692.45 585 728
300 Michael Grove LAD P 694.09 412 748
301 Zach Davies ARZ P 695.64 626 743
302 Andre Pallante STL P 695.82 531 693
303 Trevor Williams NYM P 696.09 531 714
304 Adam Ottavino NYM P 696.82 636 737
305 Trevor May NYM P 701.91 455 749
306 Rich Hill BOS P 702.73 610 742
307 Emilio Pagan MIN P 703.18 565 750
308 Bryse Wilson PIT P 703.45 562 702
309 Andrew Kittredge TB P 704.09 573 715
310 Trevor Rosenthal MLW P 704.55 610 715
311 Ken Giles SEA P 705 476 740
312 Luis Ortiz SF P 705.36 429 571
313 Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 TOR P 705.82 568 732
314 Matt Bush MLW P 706.18 502 747
315 Luis Garcia SD P 706.64 441 710
316 Owen White FA P 706.91 542 726
317 Adrian Houser MLW P 707.09 621 676
318 Emerson Hancock SEA P 707.82 583 714
319 J.P. Feyereisen TB P 709.36 612 721
320 Huascar Ynoa ATL P 709.91 555 746
321 Connor Seabold BOS P 709.91 499 658
322 Connor Thomas FA P 710 604 684
323 Beau Brieske DET P 711.18 611 668
324 Bryan Mata BOS P 711.18 553 716
325 Yimi Garcia TOR P 711.36 648 744
326 Dinelson Lamet COL P 712 577 699
327 Seth Lugo NYM P 713.91 641 748
328 Carlos Estevez COL P 714.27 564 745
329 Bryan Baker BAL P 715.55 517 595
330 Roberto Osuna FA P 716 615 727
331 Michael Pineda DET P 716.82 565 719
332 Tanner Bibee FA P 716.82 625 710
333 Adrian Martinez OAK P 718.27 580 719
334 Garrett Crochet CWS P 718.91 668 747
335 Luis Cessa CIN P 720.27 640 694
336 Hunter Gaddis CLE P 720.36 652 727
337 Brent Suter MLW P 720.73 554 695
338 Reese Olson FA P 721.18 668 736
339 Josh Staumont KC P 721.45 518 659
340 Andrew Chafin DET P 722.73 643 749
341 Gordon Graceffo FA P 723.27 630 725
342 Dakota Hudson STL P 723.27 641 737
343 Codi Heuer CHC P 723.36 599 599
344 Ross Detwiler CIN P 723.64 450 450
345 Ryan Yarbrough TB P 723.82 631 684
346 Matt Strahm BOS P 724.64 597 732
347 Griffin Canning LAA P 724.82 648 721
348 Brad Hand PHI P 724.91 614 736
349 Garrett Cleavinger TB P 725.27 655 726
350 Patrick Corbin WAS P 726.27 620 689
351 Freddy Tarnok ATL P 726.45 646 744
352 Max Meyer MIA P 727.36 491 491
353 Ethan Small MLW P 728.55 591 739
354 Scott Effross NYY P 729.18 596 666
355 Jared Shuster ATL P 729.27 648 715
356 Andre Jackson LAD P 729.64 516 516
357 Kyle Nelson ARZ P 730.36 524 524
358 Mike Baumann BAL P 730.91 590 691
359 Madison Bumgarner ARZ P 731.55 679 742
360 Ron Marinaccio NYY P 731.73 635 742
361 Jackson Kowar KC P 731.91 649 728
362 Cole Ragans TEX P 731.91 649 746
363 Jake Eder FA P 732.36 656 716
364 Sean Hjelle SF P 732.91 622 681
365 Adam Cimber TOR P 733.09 671 743
366 Aaron Loup LAA P 733.36 557 557
367 Mike Burrows FA P 734.09 633 683
368 Sam Long SF P 734.55 656 665
369 Corbin Martin ARZ P 734.64 574 748
370 Zack Britton NYY P 734.73 572 572
371 Kirby Yates ATL P 735.18 617 732
372 Tucker Davidson LAA P 735.45 663 748
373 Spencer Howard TEX P 736.18 671 742
374 Touki Toussaint LAA P 736.36 636 705
375 Wandy Peralta NYY P 736.45 670 730
376 Brad Keller KC P 736.55 592 592
377 Nabil Crismatt SD P 736.73 594 594
378 Masyn Winn STL P 736.91 598 749
379 Max Castillo KC P 737 597 597
380 Masahiro Tanaka FA P 737 597 597
381 Jake McGee WAS P 737.09 633 716
382 Sam Hentges CLE P 737.27 661 690
383 Shelby Miller SF P 737.45 692 741
384 Tommy Kahnle LAD P 737.55 695 746
385 Brad Boxberger MLW P 737.91 694 739
386 Francisco Morales PHI P 738 651 708
387 Logan T. Allen FA P 738 694 748
388 Tanner Rainey WAS P 738.73 616 616
389 Mark Leiter Jr. CHC P 738.91 618 618
390 Deivi Garcia NYY P 739 678 733
391 Danny Duffy LAD P 739.09 620 620
392 Jordan Balazovic MIN P 739.45 680 746
393 Caleb Ferguson LAD P 740 630 630
394 Justin Dunn CIN P 740.45 687 699
395 Trevor Megill MIN P 741.18 643 643
396 Carlos Hernandez KC P 741.45 691 706
397 Griff McGarry FA P 741.45 714 744
398 Jared Koenig OAK P 741.64 648 648
399 Reiver Sanmartin CIN P 742 652 652
400 Yerry De Los Santos PIT P 742.18 696 709
401 Luke Weaver SEA P 742.27 655 655
402 Asa Lacy KC P 742.45 667 741
403 Carl Edwards Jr. WAS P 742.82 679 745
404 Chris Paddack MIN P 743.18 703 740
405 Adam Oller OAK P 743.64 670 670
406 Peyton Battenfield CLE P 743.91 696 728
407 Mason Thompson WAS P 744 674 674
408 Ryan Weathers SD P 744 678 747
409 Taylor Hearn TEX P 744.09 675 675
410 Matt Festa SEA P 744.36 678 678
411 Brandon Walter FA P 744.91 688 747
412 Jon Duplantier ARZ P 745 685 685
413 Jalen Beeks TB P 745.64 714 729
414 Zack Thompson STL P 745.73 710 734
415 Casey Mize DET P 745.73 693 693
416 Ryne Stanek HOU P 746.09 714 734
417 Jovani Moran MIN P 746.09 703 745
418 Penn Murfee SEA P 746.27 699 699
419 Erick Fedde WAS P 746.36 700 700
420 Vince Velasquez CWS P 746.45 701 701
421 Anthony Bass TOR P 746.45 721 747
422 Caleb Smith ARZ P 746.45 701 701
423 Drew Pomeranz SD P 746.73 704 704
424 Chris Archer MIN P 746.82 705 705
425 Robert Stephenson PIT P 747 707 707
426 Austin Gomber COL P 747.09 722 737
427 Tyler Rogers SF P 747.09 708 708
428 Ryan Feltner COL P 747.09 708 708
429 Nick Anderson TB P 747.18 709 709
430 Rony Garcia DET P 747.36 711 711
431 Genesis Cabrera STL P 747.45 712 712
432 Pierce Johnson SD P 747.55 723 741
433 Jay Groome SD P 747.73 715 715
434 Ian Kennedy ARZ P 748.09 720 750
435 Cionel Perez BAL P 748.18 730 741
436 Cam Robinson FA P 748.55 732 743
437 Konnor Pilkington CLE P 748.64 725 725
438 Brandon Williamson SEA P 748.82 737 741
439 Bryan Garcia DET P 748.91 728 728
440 Hunter Strickland CIN P 749 729 729
441 Paolo Espino WAS P 749.09 730 730
442 Dylan Lee ATL P 749.09 736 745
443 Jake Cousins MLW P 749.45 734 734
444 Alex Colome COL P 749.45 734 734
445 Wil Crowe PIT P 749.45 734 734
446 Calvin Faucher TB P 749.55 735 735
447 Jose Quijada LAA P 749.55 735 735
448 Brent Honeywell Jr. OAK P 749.82 744 745
449 Justus Sheffield SEA P 749.82 738 738
450 Tim Mayza TOR P 749.82 738 738
451 Andrew Bellatti PHI P 749.82 738 738
452 Tony Santillan CIN P 749.82 738 738
453 Richard Rodriguez ATL P 749.91 739 739
454 Drew Hutchison DET P 749.91 739 739
455 Joey Lucchesi NYM P 750.09 741 741
456 Kirby Snead OAK P 750.18 742 742
457 Wilmer Flores FA P 750.27 743 743
458 Jonathan Heasley KC P 750.27 743 743
459 Steven Okert MIA P 750.27 743 743
460 Duane Underwood Jr. PIT P 750.27 743 743
461 Chris Stratton STL P 750.36 744 744
462 Zach Thompson PIT P 750.36 744 744
463 Tomoyuki Sugano FA P 750.36 744 744
464 Mason Montgomery FA P 750.36 744 744
465 Tyler Alexander DET P 750.64 747 747
466 Enyel De Los Santos CLE P 750.91 750 750
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball





 

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

15 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Ian Happ's Coffee Maker
2 years ago

Justin – this is the second article I’ve seen where you called Patrick Sandoval’s 2022 season a breakout. NFBC ADP data shows he was about the 75th pitcher taken in March drafts, and he finished the season outside the top 100 pitchers, according to the Razzball player rater.

2
SeanMember since 2014
2 years ago
Reply to  Ian Happ's Coffee Maker

I think it’s fair to say he broke out in 2021, but it’s also fair to say he took a step forward last year by replicating his previous success over a full season. His final rank notwithstanding, I doubt anyone who drafted him as the 75th pitcher off the board was disappointed with his production last year. His poor ranking owes almost entirely to terrible W-L luck — 2 fewer wins than Jose Suarez and Michael Lorenzen, despite making 7+ more starts with an ERA that was more than a full run lower than theirs.

1
GreggMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  Sean

You’re missing his terrible WHIP – 1.34. Incredibly, Sandoval only had a .316 BABIP.

Only 12 pitchers with 140+ IP last year had a worse WHIP. Of those pitchers, only 1 had a sub 4 ERA (3.91), 7 had 4-5 ERA, 3 had 5-6 ERA, and one had 6+ ERA.

Not necessarily your fault, but it seems nearly everyone overinflates the significance of ERA and underinflates WHIP. They count the same in categories leagues.

Last edited 2 years ago by Gregg
1
SeanMember since 2014
2 years ago
Reply to  Gregg

Yeah, the WHIP is bad — that is a fair point. Quibbling about whether he broke out just seems kind of pedantic. He’s a useful fantasy player at his draft position who has already exceeded expectations as a (real-life) 11th-round draft pick.

1
Stock
2 years ago
Reply to  Sean

I know I was very disappointed in Sandoval’s performance. His WHIP was terrible and he rarely won. When I ran out of roster space and had to choose between Sandoval and Ian Anderson I dropped Anderson and it turned out to be the right decision but Sandoval was not very good last year. If not in a 15 team league where SP was slim I would have let him go.

1
Ian Happ's Coffee Maker
2 years ago
Reply to  Sean

Well, I was disappointed. As someone who had Sandoval plenty, no part of it felt like a breakout.

1