Since returning from the disabled list (neck nerve impingement), Stephen Strasburg’s fastball velocity has dropped from averaging 96.1 mph to averaging 93.9 mph. For a pitcher known for bringing the heat, the decline immediately impacts his value going forward. The question isn’t if but how much will be the decline.

First, I completely understand Strasburg could get his fastball velocity back as soon as his next start (the chances for this could be another whole article). When determining the 30-year-old righty’s value, I needed to plant a flag at some velocity and then come up with a projection.

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Here’s today’s chat transcript brought to you by the people behind the people who brought you those in-game commercials. Asses.

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Hoping that everyone had a lovely Labor Day, here’s what went on with the bullpens on Monday…

• Bud Norris is currently struggling and although Jordan Hicks hasn’t been lights out, Norris may not be receiving consistent saves. I don’t want to overdo the alarm but Norris had a very poor Labor Day Weekend. On SAturday Norris received the L giving up 3 earned and 4 baserunners and yesterday he blew the save giving up 2 earned runs and allowing 4 baserunners while only getting two outs in the 9th.  On the year, Norris’ 3.86 FIP and 3.02 SIERA look good enough but with the Cardinals in a playoff race, he might not be their current best option. Additionally, with Norris on a one-year contract in St. Louis they aren’t beholden to him for future years. Cardinals manager Mike Shildt didn’t give Norris a resounding vote of confidence,  and I would bet that Jordan Hicks or a make-shift committee will see the next save opportunity in St. Louis. Without word from Shildt, we will keep Norris on top here, but note he is very red, with Hicks and Daniel Hudson currently behind him.

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Welcome back to your labors. Enjoy the fruits by getting ahead of the competition with Streaming Wars.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. NL Fantasy MVP

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After striking out more than a third of opposing batters he faced during his time at Double-A and Triple-A this season, Astros prospect Joshua James finally got the call to make his Major League debut on Saturday. Given the stacked Astros rotation, it wasn’t that much of a surprise that it took until rosters expanded for James to get his chance. It turned out to be a mixed bag of a start, which is to be expected during a pitcher’s first career Major League start. But let’s rewind for a moment and learn how James got to this point.

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How the Roto Riteup reacts before the Bullpen Report comes out:

Never change, Yolmer. pic.twitter.com/nxgaPWCEaH

— Cut4 (@Cut4) September 3, 2018

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I think there are not one, but many, questions because there are not one, but many, ways Adalberto Mondesi and Byron Buxton are similar.

Here’s one answer to one possible question:

who has the best fantasy season in 2019?

— Alex "Oxlade" Chamberlain (@DolphHauldhagen) August 29, 2018

I can’t say I’m surprised, but I’m kind of surprised. I asked this question very deliberately, its design not remotely accidental, the response options dripping with subtext. Mondesi, with his elite speed, decent power for a speedster, and very questionable contact skills, in 2018 is almost a dead ringer for Buxton in 2017. Mondesi doesn’t quite have Buxton’s baggage — he doesn’t carry the weight of expectations of a No. 1 prospect — but he has his own, continuing a familial legacy. But they do have a lot in common, as aforementioned, which can be summarily boiled down to this great quip from our Eric Longenhagen: “wholly untamed physical abilities.”

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Trades have significantly thinned out this system but the club has invested heavily in the international market in recent years so there could be some high-ceiling players (currently in short-season ball) on the way.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Keston Hiura | 2B | AA —> Hiura is mostly average across the board except for the hit tool, which has a chance to be plus. However, his BB-K of 35-102 in 122 games split between two levels shows that he needs to make some adjustments — especially after his numbers dipped when he faced better pitching in double-A (OPS from .911 to .749 after his promotion). He showed a little more power than expected in 2018 and could make his MLB debut by mid-2019.

2. Corey Ray | OF | AA —> For whatever reason, the Milwaukee system doesn’t develop hit tools very well. Ray has de-evolved as a hitter since turning pro although some of this other tools continue to shine. He is a 30-30 (HR-SB) threat with plus power and above-average speed. He also has a chance to be a strong defender. When he reaches the Majors, Ray should produce 20+ homers and 130+ Ks in a full season.

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9/2/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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• @sporer – Co-Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

 Leveraging September Schedules

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With most of the money of the FAAB dollars long gone, owners are stretching every last dollar to acquire talent. This week’s bidding may drain everyone’s budget as several players are on the move and some impactful rookies could be called up.

First up are last week’s results.

Predicted vs. Actual FAAB Bids for @thenfbc Main Event

Name: Pred, Actual
Kopech: $70, $71
Morales: $35, $27
Gaviglio: $11, $7
B Wilson: $7, $1
G Allen: $15, $17
Melky Cab: $21, $9

I'm slowly getting better estimates.https://t.co/nPSjaec31q

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 27, 2018

The estimates and results are inline, especially being only $1 off on Kopech’s bids. Enough about last week, it’s time for this week’s estimates.

The ownership rates are provided by CBSSportsline. I use them because CBS leagues allow immediate adds, so a player’s demand can be known before those with weekly bidding.
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