Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/4/2018

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a moment or two

dave in slc: any expectation for kyle wright in an nl only ros? it is a keeper league but competing this yr would you drop bud norris or jose quintana for him?

Brad Johnson: Not really. Unless I missed some bit of news that isn’t on rotowire/world, I don’t see any reason to expect to see him in the majors this year. If we do, probably a relief role.

Brad Johnson: He hasn’t exactly dominated in the minors either. He’s pitched well, but it’s not the kind of dominance required to translate into immediate MLB success. He probably struggles at first. I’d hang onto the closer and reliable vet.

Finding Nimmo: Do you buy the ReyLo turnaround (specifically increased K%)? I trotted him out against DET, should I continue to rely on him? #RelyOnReyLo

Brad Johnson: Not quite yet. His good strikeout games tend to correlate with days he throws fewer fastballs. I’m not discerning a pattern of decreased fastball usage. It’s probably truer to say that some days he has a better feel for his offspeed stuff

Brad Johnson: Lots of pitchers are this way, but it makes them hard to predict start-to-start

Brad Johnson: If he stays healthy, he will hopefully incrementally improve.

Brad Johnson: Given the weak divisional rivals, he’s worth a stash in 12 team mixed – if you’re hurting for IP

Dynasty stockpiler: Looking at potential free agent keepers in Ottoneu 5×5 – what do you think about car mart in the mid teens or joe ross for a few bucks for 2019?

Brad Johnson: I’d kick back Ross

Brad Johnson: You can get any number of pitchers of his quality for $1 in the draft or post-auction

Brad Johnson: Martinez is probably worth the investment – or at least tradeable.

yojiveself: Am I crazy to roll with Laureano next week vs Bal and TB?  Two soft pitching staffs.

Brad Johnson: Depends on the opportunity cost (obviously)

Brad Johnson: He’s playable given the combo of power and speed (and strikeouts)

here goes nothing: is luke weaver in the cards’ rotation next year? i’m holding him at $13 in a 12-team league…

Brad Johnson: $13 is probably too much outside of NL Only

Brad Johnson: Actually, drop the “probably.” It’s way too much

Brad Johnson: He’s a the kind of $1-3 pitcher you really want. You know, the type that usually actually costs $8 because there’s an obvious glimmer of upside

Brad Johnson: The thing is, the players who don’t have obvious upside actually still have it. Upside that is.

Brad Johnson: Some forever scrub Charlie Morton isn’t much less likely to break out than a touted guy like Weaver.

Brad Johnson: So the moral of the story, don’t overpay for guys who have to breakout in order to supply value. They should be free.

Sammy: How much do you trust giolito against the Tigers?

Brad Johnson: My weekly rant about “trust.” Here we go.

Brad Johnson: I really need to just write a post and bookmark it

Brad Johnson: Pitchers aren’t things you should ever trust. There’s nothing trustworthy about them

Brad Johnson: They’re all basically con men

Brad Johnson: The best you can do is form a mean/median expectation then try to understand the range of likely outcomes. And hope not to hit the bad unlikely outcomes.

Brad Johnson: In the case of Giolito, the mean/median versus Detroit is quite good. I would use him.

Brad Johnson: He could kill ya though.

Badger: What are your expectations for Flaherty next year?

Brad Johnson: This year minus 5-10% with a 40% risk of a DL stint of between 10 and 180 days.

Brad Johnson: And that’s it for today’s lesson in Projections 101

Brad Johnson: Seriously though, there’s ace potential if he takes a step forward. Or he could be over a 4.00 ERA if he takes half a step back.

Brad Johnson: It’s a high risk, high reward profile.

Angelus Novus: Rostering Franmil and Renfroe as OFers in the first round of the playoffs in a 10-teamer. Hoping to stream hitters from one of those spots. Got a preference?

Brad Johnson: Keep Renfroe. Or stream both. 10 team is very shallow after all.

Jay: My OF is running on fumes in a 12-team H2H league, so I’m mostly focused on schedules and steady playing time while trying to find hot hands.  How do you view this group of potential 5th/6th OFs?  Adam Frazier, Bader (just dropped), Laureano, and Brandon Lowe? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Those are all good players if a little fringy for 12-team. So what categories are you most actively chasing. Laureano is a power and speed play with bad AVG/decent OBP. Frazier is mostly pure AVG. Bader is just speed with a hint of pop. Lowe is OBP with a hint of pop and speed.

Brad Johnson: Or you know, just pick whichever have the platoon advantage/face bad pitchers

Optimistic Met: Is Sano just a broken player, looking like late career Adam Dunn out there

Brad Johnson: I don’t know what’s up with Sano tbh

Brad Johnson: That’s a topic I may try to tackle after the season. Since I have only 1 share in on a rebuilding roster, I’m not inclined to spend much time on it now

Brad Johnson: Raw power is obviously still there. I think it’s possible he’s just a Gattis/Healy/Duvall type. The end of the scale with a low AVG.

Angelus Novus: Kopech or Glasnow as a 2019 keeper?

Brad Johnson: Is both not an option?

Brad Johnson: Are you sure?

Brad Johnson: Kopech if I’m forced to pick.

Dan: H2H playoff time! It’s 6×6 w/ QS – what are your thoughts on dumping my closers and punting saves in favor of chasing K/W/QS cats? I’m tempted, but a little worried about also nuking my ratios in the process.

Brad Johnson: Another “depends on opportunity cost” situation

Brad Johnson: If your closers are Wily Peralta, Gsellman, and Hildenberger, go for it. If you have four real closers then try to grab that stat. Closers are often a deciding factor in K/ERA/WHIP assuming both teams manage to play a similar number of starts

Brad Johnson: Which usually happens when both teams are trying

HappyFunBall: Looking for ideas about how to best handle September callups and MiLB reserve rosters. Right now we simply follow status, and that means I have to shred my bench of productive 2nd tier MLB players in order to keep likely 2018 fantasy non-factors getting a cup of coffee. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: You probably need to go case by case. Most of the minor leaguers getting September call ups aren’t very good. They should be cut over a productive MLBer.

Brad Johnson: A few like Austin Meadows (I assume he gets a call after Durham postseason is done) are worth keeping though

Uriah: For the next couple of years, would you rather keep Goldy (4th rd) or Eloy (25th, then 20th, 15th…)

Brad Johnson: Without league context, I really can’t say.

Brad Johnson: I’ll assume 12 team keeper for example’s sake. Goldy is what? Pick 10-15? Eloy is unproven but let’s call him a 10th/5th/4th rounder with volatility

Brad Johnson: In that case, I think I keep Goldy. In fact, I go Goldy shallower or deeper too.

Brad Johnson: Shame to drop Eloy though. Trading done?

Ben: Ok to drop Gattis for H2H playoffs? T. Ward, Jansen, Gomes available on the wire. Favoring Ward for next week due to schedule.

Brad Johnson: Yea, no need to cling to Gattis

Brad Johnson: He’s a streaky low OBP guy

Brad Johnson: Basically 1 category

Brad Johnson: Ok, I’m still at 4:03. Gonna skip forward.

Jessica: Giolito or Minor tonight?

Brad Johnson: Giolito, but I like ’em both tonight.

Moelicious: Pick two keepers: DeGrom, Yelich, Altuve, Bregman, Judge

Brad Johnson: Really?

Brad Johnson: Not deGrom. I really can’t help you beyond that

Rick C: Start Heaney vs Rangers tonight?

Brad Johnson: Can do. It’s a neutral-ish matchup

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Is Tyler White’s power spike sustainable? Doesn’t look like it.

Brad Johnson: I mean, he’s a fly ball hitter who makes a lot of contact. It’s a lovely profile even if HR/FB regression is imminent. I think he’s a permanent MLB regular now.

Billy Bathhouse: Your thoughts on Austin Meadows short and long term (OBP league)

Brad Johnson: I go back and forth on him. I think I’m mostly excited, but I don’t expect instant gratification

Brad Johnson: Either be prepared to stick with him or trade while others are equally bullish

Rocco: What’s wrong with Dozier?

Brad Johnson: He’s aging. And he’s always streaked.

Brad Johnson: Ah, the present

HappyFunBall: Hmm.  Sorry, my question was worded poorly. What I’m asking for are rules ideas for ways around it. Allow for fantasy call-ups separate from real life call-ups? Expand benches in September just like real baseball? Things of that nature…

Brad Johnson: This is going back to a post I responded to at 4:20 (*snicker)

Brad Johnson: So I have a league I run where we get one NA player in Yahoo as a $1 keeper. Has to be a rookie eligible player to qualify. If they spend 10 days in the majors, they lose eligibility – except for September call ups.

Brad Johnson: It’s easy enough for me to manage because it’s just one guy per team

Brad Johnson: And you hold them on your yahoo roster (you do have to move them out of NA when called up). Sounds like you have aux rosters separate from your platform. In which case, you can just exempt Sept. call ups.

Finding Nimmo: 12 team pts keeper with emphasis on Ks. Buehler in 24th or Clevinger in 17th?

Brad Johnson: Uh, I want to say Buehler. I really like ’em both. I’ll say this, don’t worry about the round (unless the inflation is like 5 per season).

Brad Johnson: Pick whichever you think is the better pitcher in 2019

Brad Johnson: Without doing a deep dive, I figure they’re the same asset class.

Billy Bathhouse: Do you have newfound hope for Glasnow with the change of scenery to TB?

Brad Johnson: Yes, the strikeout performance has impressed me. I really thought he’d fall apart after 4+ innings and it hasn’t been happening

Brad Johnson: I still think he’s probably more a 5+ innings guy then somebody who regularly dominates opponents for 7 frames

Brad Johnson: i.e. an ace

Brad Johnson: More McCullers than Kluber in other words

Optimistic Met: trusting Junis nowadays? he’s been on quite a decent roll and just dominated a good team

Brad Johnson: Refer back to 4:09 for my thoughts on trust. Especially never trust Junis. For one, it’s hard to win with a historically bad supporting cast.

Brad Johnson: The whole point of streaming waiver wire pitchers is to pick up predictable wins. If you’re trying to get ERA/WHIP/Ks, you’re gonna kill yourself

Brad Johnson: You can get those stats on an individual level, but if you stream 40 starts, you will have below average ratios in them. You want to make up for that with the wins.

Upton Funk: Kris Bryant for 2019 . . . same-ish outlook to your preseason 2018 expectations?  .290, 30-35 HR, 5-10 SB?

Brad Johnson: Yea. I have no change in my expectations. In fact, before he hit the skids, I thought he looked like he’d improved despite the results not saying so

Brad Johnson: In theory, he’s my favorite buy low

Brad Johnson: However, I think it’s so obvious that we’ll probably actually see him at 98% of full price

Bags: Is there value in eating a roster spot to keep a player (Starlin Castro) from being picked up by a potential playoff opponent when that player won’t get playing time on your team or is it getting too nitpicky to worry about? He’s 4th or 5th in my pecking order at 2B (start two).

Brad Johnson: Yes, IF you can’t use that roster spot to improve your own roster.

Brad Johnson: Or more accurately, if it hurts your rival more than using that spot for yourself would help you

Bob Villar: Mejia or Meadows OBP Dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Meadows. EZ

Chuck: With Mejia up, do I need to move on from Austin Hedges? 12-team H2H playoffs.

Brad Johnson: Yes, but probably not to Mejia. Lot of good Cs kicking around in 12 team

Brad Johnson: Ramos or Cervelli would be the first place I’d look

Wildtsunami: Andujar… Where and what position will my Yankee play next year.

Brad Johnson: Oh boy, I’m the wrong person to ask about Andujar

Brad Johnson: I was informed yesterday that I hate him

Brad Johnson: I project him to be Ryon Healy with a couple extra points of AVG

Brad Johnson: The lack of defensive ability means he moves off 3B over the winter

Brad Johnson: Almost guaranteed

Brad Johnson: So that means he’s in a 1B mix with Bird and whatever vets they sign. Hell, at this rate Voit might be the top 1B on the roster.

Brad Johnson: DH too, but that probably falls to an OFer

Brad Johnson: Ultimately, I figure he’s traded as part of a package for deGrom or similar

Brad Johnson: And if it’s deGrom specifically, that would utterly annihilate his fantasy value. He’d be a $1 player in 12 mixed moving from Yankee Stadium to CitiField

Brad Johnson: Maikel Franco is another comp I see

Turgid: So you like Chapman over Andujar for next year?

Brad Johnson: Absolutely. Defense doesn’t matter except when it’s so bad/good to affect playing time. Chapman absolutely starts. Andujar is doing his best to lose his job with defense

Brad Johnson: Chapman’s hitting profile is also better if less powerful – especially in OBP formats

Blake: 5 Cat OBP League – replacing Franco and Marwin G. – help in any category is welcomed – options include: Piscotty, ARosario, Aldaberto, and all the Padres, Hosmer included. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: I assume Wil is off the table?

Brad Johnson: I like Urias, Renfroe, Piscotty, and if you need SB then Mondesi

Brad Johnson: Not necessarily in that order

Brad Johnson: But those are the most playable imo

Jordash : Worth holding onto Billy Hamilton?  He has hit well recently but not stealing any bags, which is obviously the reason he is on the roster…

Brad Johnson: Yes. He’s healthy. The SB will come.

B. Ryce Hammers Luscious Locks: Going into H2H points playoffs next week and Wheeler is my only 2 start pitcher (W/L/QS)… but he and DeGrom are both facing Boston. Do I swallow hard and pray for Boston to go cold? Or sit Wheeler for a Glasnow or Gibson type?

Brad Johnson: I’d use Wheeler, although I’d also like to squeeze Glasnow in somewhere. Hard to believe he isn’t playable over your other options

Turgid: 12-team mixed – is $20 K Davis a good keeper if he starts and possibly remains DH-only?

Brad Johnson: You need 20 games for eligibility?

Brad Johnson: He only has 11 so far (10 starts). He should at least gain eligibility in most formats by end of May

Brad Johnson: So I wouldn’t worry about the DH only designation

Brad Johnson: I think this is a great winter to sell Davis under the “it’s better to sell a year too early than a year too late” doctrine

Brad Johnson: That said, keeping him for $20 seems like an easy decision

Michael: Are you bullish on Victor Robles in 2019?

Brad Johnson: Yes.

Brad Johnson: Though you have to realize, bullish on Robles means like a 100 wRC+ with SB-heavy performance

Brad Johnson: Probably from the lower half of the lineup (but maybe not).

Bob Villar: Should anyone own a pair of underwear for 14+ years?  We have a league member who’s proud of this.

Brad Johnson: I know I’ve got some pretty old boxers, but I don’t think any have lived quite that long

Brad Johnson: So old hold overs from college were retired in the last couple years

Brad Johnson: That’s just some underwear talk for ya

B. Ryce Hammers Luscious Locks: Re Glasnow, I am starting Cole, Sevvy, DeGrom,Paxton, Buehler in other slots

Brad Johnson: Well, I stand corrected. Nice rotation.

Blue Jays Sadness: I do not really understand the low futrue rating for Cavan Biggio. Is this just a result of not being updated lately? He has had two very solid years

Brad Johnson: Report says it was updated in 2018

Brad Johnson: I’m going to say they don’t believe the contact skills will hold up in the majors. Or perhaps a lack of defensive home is the bigger issue

Brad Johnson: “Eric A Longenhagen: He has changed but not enough to be a 50 FV. Probably not a 2B, still has some offensive issues. 40 FV, realistically.”

Brad Johnson: That’s from July

Brad Johnson: For those of us who like to lean on statistical profiles, I very much like Biggio as a deep dynasty stash.

another bad dynasty manager: Tell the underwear wearer: yes, if you think it helps you win. IIRC, the Yankees wore the same briefs some yrs. ago during a winning stretch.  I felt sorry for their wives.

Jordan : Think Roman Quinn is mixed league viable next year? Or he he more fringe/NL only?

Brad Johnson: Probably the latter unfortunately. It’s a shame (for us) too because he’s Trea Turner when he’s healthy and playing

Brad Johnson: But the simple truth of it is that he NEVER plays more than 60 games in a season so the Phillies will absolutely make sure he’s in a 4th OFer role

Brad Johnson: So you’ve got Hoskins in LF, Doobie in CF, Williams in RF, and they’ll definitely try to sign Harper too.

Brad Johnson: If they don’t I’d still bet on them signing a different OFer.

Brad Johnson: If it stays with just the three mentioned and internal options, then there’s a path for Quinn to win a job

Brad Johnson: And then he’s a very interesting late-round flier.

Bob Villar: The crusty underwear guy has never finished higher than 2nd, and that was like 8 years ago, FWIW

Guest: Has Nola morphed into a legitimate #1, or is this his career year and he’s headed for major regression? Would it be completely bananas to keep him over Kershaw?

Brad Johnson: Yes, yes, and no

Brad Johnson: Expecting anything other than regression would be nuts, but he’s also a bonafide ace

Brad Johnson: And I would keep him over Kershaw in many formats

Turgid: Start Dozier and hope he can break out of his slump against Vargas? Or Villar see if he stays hot?

Brad Johnson: Only do Villar if you need to prioritize SB

Brad Johnson: otherwise Dozier all the way

Adam: Assuming Didi is back this weekend, and assuming I need to preserve thin leads in HR and OBP, which of my SS/MI types sits for him going forward:  Adames, Albies, or Villar?

Brad Johnson: Villar

Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: Any reason to hold on to Matt Olson in a points dynasty? I’m going to have Sale and Doolittle coming off the DL soon and considering him to be the drop.

Brad Johnson: I mean, he’s a really good power hitter?

Brad Johnson: Is that a reason?

Adam: While we’re on Phillies questions, can you handicap their chances of signing Harper, Machado, both, or neither?

Brad Johnson: This will be interesting to watch. They will try to sign both, I have sources on that. Plans can change of course, but they’ve been waiting for this opportunity

Brad Johnson: Realistically, it depends on John Middleton

Brad Johnson: He’s either going to step into the process and force it to happen, or they’ll be outbid by the Yankees/Dodgers/Cubs/whoever

Brad Johnson: Whichever other big market team looks shiniest to the players in question

Brad Johnson: Klentak and friends are too rational, they’ll try to win the bid by $1 rather than offering completely ruinous contracts

Brad Johnson: It’s quite possible they stop at one ruinous contract. Although, I kinda figure if you’re going to ruin things you might as well go all the way.

Brad Johnson: The farm system is overstocked on pitchers and light on position player talent

Brad Johnson: So this is a relatively rational way to use their resources

Brad Johnson: In summary, I suspect it will be an exciting but ultimately disappointing offseason for Phillies fans.

DJ Tanner: What do you think of Nimmo HR/SB potential is? Any chance he is a 25/15 guy?

Brad Johnson: No. If the Mets trade him somewhere friendlier, he could be a 25 HR bat. He’s not fast enough to steal bases.

Brad Johnson: Or especially good at picking his spots

Brad Johnson: I guess it’s fair to say he’s faster than peak Michael Brantley and he was a superb base thief

Brad Johnson: So maybe he learns unexpectedly

Adam: Thanks so much for the long answer re: Phils – I am now both giddy with hope and nervous for outcome.

Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: In regards to the MiLB call-up question; my league has a separate MiLB roster where a player has to be called by a certain time-based deadline EXCEPT for Sept callups for that reason. If a player is called up Sept 1st on he’s exempt from having to be added to your roster and taking up a valuable playoff roster spot

Brad Johnson: That’s basically what I was suggesting

Jackson: What is going on with Carlos Correa? He’s killing me

Brad Johnson: Based on his career to date, Carlos Correa is really bad when not 100% healthy

Brad Johnson: There are just some players who are like this

Brad Johnson: Jacoby Ellsbury is a prime example

Brad Johnson: It has not been a healthy season for Correa. I’d buy low next year if the opportunity presents itself

Brad Johnson: And definitely keep him in all but the most extreme situations

Bob Villar: Carlos Correa or Kris Bryant, OBP Dynasty?

Brad Johnson: I was thinking about this as I typed out that last one since they’re both underperforming stars

Brad Johnson: I think for OBP the answer is Bryant

Brad Johnson: And for AVG too

Brad Johnson: But I love ’em both

CompGuy: So, Bregman or Correa in dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Are you Bill James?

Brad Johnson: I got into a tif with him last week over this question

Brad Johnson: I think in reality, I’d still prefer Correa. They’re both basically 4 win players. Gotta take Bregman in fantasy

Brad Johnson: the hitting profile screams growth and the occasionally shaky defense doesn’t matter

Brad Johnson: And one of these years, he won’t be terrible for the first 2+ months

Adam: Are you of a mind to use Kershaw and Buehler for their starts at Coors, or more conservative at this point in the season?  I need the Ks, but I also can’t afford a WHIP implosion.

Brad Johnson: It’s not an easy yes/no, are you ahead or behind pace for IP cap?

Brad Johnson: Or if it’s H2H, just use the damned things and hope for the best

Brad Johnson: Time to wrap it up folks, this has been a fun week

Joe: What do you make of Franmil Reyes? Obviously not as good as he’s been the past couple weeks, but how far does he regress?

Brad Johnson: He’s very interesting, and it’s kind of a shame the Padres have so many outfielders

Brad Johnson: He should start for most of 2018 since Myers is at 3B now

Brad Johnson: but he’s caught in a roster crunch next year

Adam: re: Kershaw/Buehler, we use a GS cap, and I’m behind pace.

Brad Johnson: Use ’em

Brad Johnson: Going back to Franmil, the strikeout rate has been better this time around – enough there’s hope for above average production. Ultimately, I think he’s another Aaron Altherr in the sense that he’s fantasy relevant until something unclicks and he collapses into Triple-A

Brad Johnson: I guess that’s where we’ll end. Thanks for playing.

Blue Jays Sadness: thanks for your input. Hoping Eric is wrong though 😛

another bad dynasty manager: Start M. Montgomery vs. Brewers and Nats? 16 team pts. league with first pick in the draft next yr. on the line.  I’ll probably bench Buehler, so since IPs matter a lot, I need a substitute.

Brad Johnson: I’d go with no