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Paul in Justin on a Tuesday… transcript below!

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With a few jobs recently influx (HOU, PHI, STL, TB, NYM, and now BAL w/Zach Britton returning), I figured I’d take a look at where the saves have come from so far. Remember when Kenley Jansen was scary? After allowing six runs through his first seven outings, he has allowed five (three earned) in 23 innings since with 24 strikeouts. Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Aroldis Chapman have completely held up their end of the bargain as early closers, but things really branch out from there. Using the NFBC average draft position data (15-team, 30-round drafts), here’s a look at the breakdown:
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• As Al mentioned yesterday, Zach Britton was activated from the DL yesterday. While he won’t see save chances right away, at his best he’s the best reliever in the bunch and if he’s healthy in the ninth it only helps his trade value. The Orioles are a cool 25 games back in the division and as Al also mentioned, the other relievers will certainly be on the block as well. It’s hard to construct a closer grid with so much turmoil between a returning ace closer, relievers closer to saves but likely on the move (Brad Brach, Darren O’Day) and relievers possibly further from saves today but closer in the 2nd half in Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier. It’s worth mentioning that the Orioles only have 13 saves all season and while saves are saves, there likely won’t be many going around in Baltimore after the dust settles whether it’s Mychal Givens, Richard Bleier, or someone like Brad Brach who isn’t moved.

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Now fortified with calcium.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Bauer Outage 2.0

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Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to identify and discuss eight hitters whose marks suggest an imminent surge in their actual HR/FB rates. Today, let’s check in on seven fantasy relevant hitters on the other side of the coin — those whose xHR/FB rates are well below their actual marks, suggesting near-term downside.

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The Roto Riteup approves of 80-Grade trolling:

We have a big announcement. ? pic.twitter.com/zDIiBag48r

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) June 11, 2018

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In my chat last night, I got several questions on Joey Votto and his power loss. I decided I investigate the drop along with several other regulars who currently have an isolated power (ISO) less than their projected Steam projections.

To get a list of hitters, I took the hitter with a least 150 PA this season and compared their projected and actual ISO’s. Here the top 20.

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Happy Zach Britton Day! The Orioles are planning to activate their once-and-future closer on Monday, though not surprisingly, he will likely be eased into the closer’s role. It’s also not a shock that, according to a report from the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles may deal Britton, along with Brad Brach and Darren O’Day, prior to the trade deadline. If all three are dealt, perhaps current setup relievers Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier could get save chances later in the season. The Sun report also cites Tanner Scott as having received more work in high-leverage situations prior to his getting optioned to Triple-A Norfolk on Saturday, so he could be a late-season candidate for saves or holds as well.
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Kyle Gibson has won one game.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…

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