Hey guys, I am heading out on vacation today:

I leave you in the capable hand of Mike Werner and Keith Farnsworth. Hopefully they don’t burn the place down in my absence.

On the Agenda:

1. Closer Chaos

2. Various News and Notes

3. Streaming Pitchers

Closer Chaos

Kenyan Middleton was placed on the 10-Day DL with an elbow injury. The move is retroactive to April 28th. Middleton told reporters that he hopes to return after a minimum stay, but we know how that can work out. Cam Bedrosian is the leading candidate to fill in until he returns.

Various News and Notes

Chance Sisco left Tuesday’s game after running face first into Pedro Alvarez.

Scary scene, as Orioles Catcher Chance Sisco accidentally runs into Pedro Alvarez’s elbow. pic.twitter.com/yWrSjcYwYc

— Angels Today (@angelstoday) May 2, 2018

It appears he may have avoid serious injury as he was diagnosed with a facial contusion. Consider him day-to-day at this time.

Miguel Sano was placed on the 10-Day DL with a hamstring injury. Sano missed a couple games in a row attempting to avoid the DL, but the Twins were forced to make a move when he wasn’t ready to return. The injury doesn’t appear to be too serious and the move is retroactive to April 28th, so he could be back in a little over a week.

Jordan Montgomery was pulled from his start on Tuesday after experiencing elbow tightness in the first inning. This does not sound good and Montgomery is scheduled to leave the team and go back to New York for further tests. Domingo German will likely take his spot in the Yankees rotation.

Scott Kingery was hit in the hand with a pitch in Tuesday’s game. He did not leave the game and was diagnosed with a bruised hand. Consider him day-to-day at this time.

Johnny Cueto has hit the DL for the second time this season. This time it is for an elbow issue which is very concerning. There is not much info, but this does not sound good at all. He has been fantastic when he has pitched, but has struggled through injuries the first month. Keep an eye on the timetable/diagnosis.

Streaming Pitchers Options

A pitcher for today: None

I like Andrew Heaney, but the Orioles are much better against lefties than righties.

A pitcher for tomorrow: None

There are really not any good options.

I mentioned on a recent podcast that my updated starting pitcher rankings would be out today, but I’m not quite done so you’ll have to wait a little longer! In the meantime, I wanted to look at some struggling arms and see if there’s any hope. Remember, this time last year saw Jimmy Nelson toting a 5.34 ERA and probably on a ton of waiver wires. From May 1st on, he had a 3.13 ERA and 176 strikeouts in 146.7 innings.

Kenta Maeda (6.58 ERA), Jose Quintana (5.22), Carlos Martinez (4.71), and Justin Verlander (4.60) were a few other arms who emerged from crummy Aprils. Not every quality arm found their footing so it’s far from a guarantee, but a handful of April duds will be gems the rest of the way. Let’s see if we can find some of them and start with a repeat struggler from last year.

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Here’s today’s chat transcript.

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Last week, I wrote about the expected power from JaCoby Jones and Lewis Brinson. In the article, I mentioned the hitter’s rank compared to other hitters with no context resides just the rank. Today, I correct this flaw in my analysis by finding the league averages and putting the data on the 20-80 scouting scale.

While overall ranks do provide some information, it’s tough to put the rankings into context. Nelson Cruz is first in average exit velocity (EV) at 97 mph. Dropping down 2 mph in exit velocity is Luke Maile at #10. Two more is Jacoby Jones at #26. And another two is Francisco Lindor at #75. The first 4 mph in drop was just 26 players while the next 2 mph was 49 players. The batted ball decline rate is not linear and just a few tenths of a mile-per-hour can jump a player 20 spots in the rankings.

I need a way to label hitters and had to invoke some math. I took the hitters with 100 batted balls per season from 2015 to 2017 and found the overall average value. Using the 20-80 scouting scale, I gave the average values a 50-grade.

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A bad start to the season somehow got worse for Lance Lynn on Monday night. He entered his fifth start of 2018 with a 7.71 ERA, having allowed five or more runs in three of his previous starts. By the time the Blue Jays forced his exit after five innings, Lynn’s ERA rose to a ghastly 8.37.
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Here is the transcript of the chat for the week. A lot of “when to sell” questions. I will be on vacation next week, so no chat.

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Day 1 on FantasyDraft was a success. Let’s keep it rolling!

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. First Take
3. Weather Reports
4. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
5. SaberSim Says…
6. N=1

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters whose xHR/FB rates most exceeded their actual HR/FB rates, suggesting the potential for dramatic upside in the near term. Today, let’s check in on those hitters on the opposite side of the ledger — those whose actual HR/FB rates most exceed their xHR/FB marks. This is the group at major risk of regression.

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Someone made this for me and I have to share it:

As you requested @JustinMasonFWFB @sporer pic.twitter.com/9gI38JfWr5

— Josh Sperry (@Josh__Sperry) April 30, 2018

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