Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 5/1/18

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, I lost track of time while building DFS lineups. We’ll get started in a moment.

Wade boggs’ head: Franchy or Teoscar for long term keeper?

Brad Johnson: Franchy, I think. They’re both high variance profiles. I kind of see the same floor and median outcomes with Franchy having more upside.

zurzles: Thank you for hosting SEAGER REPLACEMENT CHAT. Thoughts on Healy right now? He’s my replacement (Machado moves to SS) over guys like Cozart, Davidson, Andujar, Peraza. 10 team standard H2H. Senzel still worth stashing to replace this bunch?

Brad Johnson: Can stash Senzel. I prefer Davidson and Cozart to Healy.

Brad Johnson: They’re all pretty similar, albeit with very different stat distributions.

Anal Hershiser: Who you want most for saves out of AJ Minter, Joe Jiminez, or Jose Alvarez?

Brad Johnson: Minter. I really don’t think Jimenez is ever a closer. Not based on any time I’ve watched him pitch

Adam: Is there anything in Conforto’s peripherals (or video of his swing, for that matter) to indicate that his shoulder is still not healthy?  The lack of power thus far is concerning, recognizing it’s still maybe SSS for him.

Matt: How we feeling about Chris Taylor ROS?

Brad Johnson: Whoops, doubled up. Conforto first

Brad Johnson: When he came back so quickly, I was concerned.

Brad Johnson: Miraculous returns usually mean the player is lying or over-taxing himself

Brad Johnson: So structural weakness, if not pain, could be affecting Conforto’s power.

Brad Johnson: As for Taylor, he’s not locked into everyday reps. So that’s good. Increasingly risky we’re looking at a .700 OPS with better fantasy than real world stats. He’ll remain useful.

Aaron: Expected ROS ERA and WHIP for R.Lopez?

Brad Johnson: Like a 4.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP?

Brad Johnson: Maybe a little under both

Matt: How long until Norris is the clear closer?

Brad Johnson: Forever

Brad Johnson: He’ll always be the temporary patch – at least until they give up on contending

Brad Johnson: If Holland can’t get in on the action, they’ll turn to Gregerson or Leone or Hicks or Reyes or somebody else.

HappyFunBall: I feel like Enrique Hernandez, if he becomes a full time player now, is not such a bad fill in all by himself. Especially if it’s a league where his all-over-the-diamond eligibility plays…

Brad Johnson: True, the caveat being the need for everyday play. And if his body can handle it.

Brad Johnson: He’s never really done it successfully

Guest: Need a replacement for Seager. Story, Swanson, or Marte. NL-only keeper league. Could Godley get me Story?

Brad Johnson: Story is the best option by a mile. And Godley is close enough to try.

Brad Johnson: I’m a big Story fan.

Johnny Coconuts: In the vein of Seager replacement, would you take Swanson, Anderson, or Segura?

Brad Johnson: Segura

Dr. Met: Seager victim  here, had to pick up Peraza … he’s still fast but not stealing, do you think he ends up a serviceable SS fillin right now? His star has dimmed to non existence but he’s put together a torrid week

Brad Johnson: Works as a patch until you find better.

Texas Dolly : Gotta choose between Cahill and Marco Gonzales for my AL-only league? Who do I go for?

Brad Johnson: Cahill

tacopocket: My team is struggling.  I got guys like dex fowler and puig — have you looked at them deeply at all?  I think their peripherals look solid but they’ve been awful.   Should I be patient?  or trade?   or drop them for other duds like heyward, granderson, moran, Pederson)?

Brad Johnson: I have a lot of Fowler shares

Brad Johnson: -0.6 WAR 🙁

Brad Johnson: Also, I agree the peripherals scream buy low

Brad Johnson: I’m a little less sold on Puig, but I’ve always been a doubter of his

Brad Johnson: To quote myself circa last October, “he’s mediocre”

Brad Johnson: Sporer and Mason gave me a lot of shit for that comment…

Brad Johnson: Not really saying I’m right based on his bad April, but I do still believe he’s a lot closer to bad than good.

HappyFunBall: Matt Davidson + Top X starting pitcher = Joey Gallo … what is X?

Brad Johnson: Uh, Matt Davidson+Severino for Gallo and a cut?

Brad Johnson: I guess my take on that is skewed

Brad Johnson: I have very few AVG leagues so I default to OBP/OPS

Brad Johnson: Maybe more like Godley

Bird Man: Peter Alonso has better numbers than Vladdy Jr. and has the longer track record to back it up, change my mind.

Brad Johnson: Talk to a scout. The creation myth of Vladito is at least three parts physical to one part statistics

Brad Johnson: I could see Alonso being the Rhys Hoskins of 2018 though.

Vegan Man!: Re: Conforto’s shoulder strength. Looks like he’s averaging 2 MPH less on his BBE this year as opposed to last year. Is that a a huge drop off? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Not in this size of sample

mr g: Would you try and trade McCullers (and maybe a compliment) to acquire Nola?

Brad Johnson: No, prefer McCullers by a hair

Chatty McChatterson: Looking to trade some closer depth for a SP…is offering Vizcaino/Shane Greene to buy low on Taillon too low ball of an offer? How do you value closers in trades?

Brad Johnson: Probably, but try it anyway. It’s an extremely variable asset. I usually try to get them as throw ins, especially that level of CL

Teoscar Hernandez: Are you buying into me being really good?

Brad Johnson: eh, I’m buying into you being a starter from now on

Pine Needles: Are you a believer in Eugenio Suarez? I have him and Chapman and aren’t sure who to play/keep

Brad Johnson: Both should be owned in all formats

Brad Johnson: I’m worried about him rushing back from his thumb injury.

Brad Johnson: So be careful making him your only 3B if you opt to trade Chapman

Kyle Gibson: Am I pretty good now?

Brad Johnson: You have a good slider. That fastball though is still woofy

Brad Johnson: He’s begging to join the bullpen.

Dr. Met: re: conforto: he’s also not getting consistent PT as mets rotate 4 OF and 3 1b

Brad Johnson: That’s actually a good thing. It’s not like you get rusty from a day off every once in awhile.

Brad Johnson: And he needs it for healing

Pine Needles: Drop Pivetta for Soroka in 10 teamer?

Brad Johnson: Nah.

Luck Dragons: Did Hader have the all-time best/most dominant MLB save last night?

Brad Johnson: since Randy Johnson was around

Todd Frazier: E Escobar or Y Solarte?

Brad Johnson: Solarte

mr g: Name 5 SPs outside the consensus top 10 that you’d want ROS (consensus: Scherzer, Kluber, Kershaw, Sale, Severino, deGrom, Stras, Thor, Verlander, Cole)

Brad Johnson: Hmm, need a minute

Brad Johnson: McCullers

Brad Johnson: Berrios

Brad Johnson: CMart

Brad Johnson: Morton

Brad Johnson: last one is hard… Greinke, Carrasco, Nola, Arrieta, and maybe Snell

Nuke Laloosh: Any concerns about Justin Upton’s early struggles? Are we just seeing regression from what was a career year in 2017?

Brad Johnson: He’s always been super inconsistent. Seems like normal Upton

Mr. Freeze: Are you a fan of any/all of Jarlin Garcia, Matt Koch, or Eric Lauer going forward (in NL only league)?

Brad Johnson: Hard no. I do need a moment to investigate Lauer though

Brad Johnson: Hard no

Kyle: Hey, Brad! Thank you for all the work you do on RG/FG. How would you define “fantasy stud”? It seems like that phrase gets bandied about like the President’s love-life at the National Press Correspondents’ Dinner, but no one seems to be able to clearly define it.

Brad Johnson: It’s entire subjective based on the writer. I use it to describe anybody who can carry categories or contributes above average across the board

Mark: 15 team: Bregman and Marco Gonzales or DeGrom and Swanson? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Redraft, deGrom. keeper, Bregman.

Sean: Are you bogfella?

Brad Johnson: I am not

Brad Johnson: there are two of us…

Matt: Currently starting Cordero while I wait for Conforto to…well, be useful. Andujar in my minors. I’m a Yankees fan, but having trouble filtering out my bias that says Andujar will rake and be the starting 3B for the Yanks in perpetuity. Is it time to call him up, or wait a little while more to see how that shakes out?

Brad Johnson: Might as well wait, Drury is back any day now

Taylor: When do we see V. Robles this year? Will he be in contention for ROY?

Brad Johnson: Probably August/September and thus, no

Breezy: What do you see from Arrieta that makes you optimistic?

Brad Johnson: He seems to be trying to figure out a right-handed Dallas Keuchel thing. And he has the stuff to make it work. He’ll get good run support too.

Stan: Is Eaton for Morton fair? I have marte,Blackmon, Teoscar, Franchy and Margot in the outfield and need pitching help

Brad Johnson: Yea seems to make sense for you

Brad Johnson: Just a general PSA, I don’t do rankings. If I seem to be ignoring your “Please Rank Player X – Top ____ SP?” type question, it’s only because I don’t find any value in that information

Brad Johnson: And it kinda takes a lot of effort to compile.

Brad Johnson: My philosophy is to know/scout the players and then assess who best fits my needs.

Hot Streaker: Albies is probably the sole reason I’m sitting in third place, with slow starts from Yelich, McCutchen, Votto, Bregman, Zunino. He won’t hit 40 HRs, but do you think 25hr/20 SB with a .290/340 line is doable?

Brad Johnson: He has 10 HR, right? 25 is an undersell. SB might fall short.

Would You Rather: Stream Caleb Smith at CIN Saturday?  Overall thoughts on him?

Brad Johnson: Shocking volume of Caleb questions so I’ll take a moment to look deeper. I’ve been dismissive of him to date

Brad Johnson: Ok, so I think the thing I was missing is a good breaking ball with a fairly hefty use rate.

Brad Johnson: Kind of a poor man’s Corbin

Brad Johnson: Probably looking at 1.50 HR/9 with otherwise okay-ish numbers. Can stream at home against weak opponents. Wouldn’t own him outright in 12 team or shallower

Brad Johnson: Ahem, note the edit *wouldn’t*

Stan: Trade Olson for Santana? Feel like Santana is a buy low and high babip and strikeouts for Olson is worrisome

Brad Johnson: Can do, nice challenge trade with Thames sidelined

HappyFunBall: Sell/hold Sean Manaea?

Brad Johnson: Yea, one of those. If you have to ask, you should be feeling around for offers

Brad Johnson: Let somebody overpay if they want to, don’t force the trade

Laura: What are your expectations for Souza when he returns to the lineup?

Brad Johnson: 2017 minus 25%

MD: what do you think of Newcomb, ROS and long term

Brad Johnson: Kinda Eduardo Rodriguez-ish. Breakout potential, a K per inning, inconsistent other stuff

Laura: WOuld you trade Seager for Michael Fulmer. Anthony Alford and Austin meadows in a dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: I would not

Willie Calhoun: in a keep forever league, how would you value Seager right now? How much value has he lost?

Brad Johnson: 1%?

Brad Johnson: Like basically none unless you don’t have a bench or DL

referee111: How close really is the race between the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees? Is there any sizable advantage for any of these teams?

Brad Johnson: I’m not buying the Sox as anywhere close to the Yankees and Astros. I know the number machines disagree, but I think that’s a brittle roster.

Brad Johnson: They can absorb a lot and still be good, but those other two clubs are historically elite

Brad Johnson: They’re just not the same

54: is Ian Happ gonna get a chance to figure it out at Wrigley, or you think there’s a stint back in Iowa before he turns it around? Dropped Kipnis for him but I need some daily juice at 2B from that roster spot sooner rather than later.

Brad Johnson: Better hope it happens soon. The wind is blowing out and he hits a lot of fly balls. Could provide value even with 45% K rate

A Random Dude: What stat numbers do you pay the most attention to when researching players? i.e. O-Swing, Z-Swing, BABIP etc

Brad Johnson: Kinda depends what’s happening on the surface. Often, I don’t need to go beyond BB, K, and SwStr rates for gauging discipline

Brad Johnson: at least for vets

Brad Johnson: If I want to examine a change, I’ll dip into the swing/take rates

Brad Johnson: I mostly want to know about their batted balls

Ted Williams: D. Price, G. Richards, and N. Mazara for Haniger and McCullers.  Which side wins?

Brad Johnson: Haniger and McCullers by miles

Brad Johnson: at least in redraft

Brad Johnson: Prefer it in dynasty too, but at least time is cruelly unpredictable

Would You Rather: I got Stroman off waivers for literally free.  Didn’t drop anyone cuz had an open spot after a 2 for 1 trade.  Did I overpay?

Brad Johnson: I have a couple stashed shares. I’m not playing him at the moment

AB: are clevinger and chase anderson sell high or holds?

Brad Johnson: sell the crap out of Anderson. Undecided on Clevinger

A Random Dude: assess instead of assets

A Random Dude: chuckle

A Random Dude: assess…oooh, i word-played myself

Brad Johnson: I don’t know what’s happening here

jacob h cornhole: my mom always said that you could get sick if you eat toast that’s too burnt. however, my dad always said CINDY IT DOESNT TASTE THAT BAD LET HIM EAT IT. sonny gray is toast. should i continue to take bites out of this or is it just too burnt?

Brad Johnson: Kind of like Stroman, I’m ok with holding shares so long as you don’t use ’em until he’s better

Ted Williams: 10 team points league: would you drop Luis Castillo for Pivetta or Mikolas?

Brad Johnson: Strongly tempting for either. Small preference for Pivetta.

Brad Johnson: I think Castillo will figure it out, but you don’t have to be patient in a 10-teamer

Sox Owner: In a dynasty league, should I accept a trade for Y. Moncada (only $7 next year) if I have Altuve ($36 next year)?

Brad Johnson: Well… depends on the quality of the trade. But yes, Altuve is a solid “alternative” to Moncada

Snake the Jake: Pick a side, 10 team roto keeper:
A) Rizzo and A Simmons
B) Haniger, Jed Lowrie, Josh Bell

Brad Johnson: Ooh, tricky

Brad Johnson: think I’m going Haniger today

Brad Johnson: could seriously regret that

Brad Johnson: I wrote about Rizzo today actually.

Brad Johnson: https://www.patreon.com/posts/mlb-quick-best-18526887

Anthony: I gotta sit on Castillo right? Just bench him until he can string together a few decent starts (assuming it is arm angle related)?

Brad Johnson: That’s how I’d treat it

Brad Johnson: Or find a buy low trade match

Boofer: Thoughts on Matt Carpenter?  Primed for a bounce back or soon to be on waiver wire?

Brad Johnson: Looked like a rebound to me. I bought him yesterday

Brad Johnson: Well…actually I bought Machado and Pollock with Carp as a throwin

BK Metsies: didi ROS – top _ SS?

Brad Johnson: 3

Brad Johnson: I’m in

Brad Johnson: See the link I just posted…

Kyle: Conforto too much to give up for L Castillo in keep forever?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: so yes

Brad Johnson: I hate being right about Castillo 🙁

Brad Johnson: Can’t seem to find the link

Brad Johnson: Basically, I said random shit ensured he was a bad value at his ADP

Brad Johnson: And we’re living with that random shit now

Brent: Is it time to grab Nick Senzel?

Brad Johnson: Indeed

Bogaerts: Am I just temporarily crushing the ball or will I compete with the likes of Didi/Correa this year for top SS honors offensively

Brad Johnson: Not really temporary in my opinion, but I don’t think he’ll really compete for top honors

spookie: my didi + throw in for his sev?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: Your didi for his Sev and second serious piece

Burgh Life: Castillo or JA Happ … H2H 7×7 with Losses + Opponent AVG

Brad Johnson: tbh, not sure how those added categories interact. I’d do Happ though

ohioastrosfan: Kershaw, Gardner and Devenski for JDM, W Davis and Archer? OPS 12TM roto

Brad Johnson: I like the JDM side, Kershaw looks strangely mortal

Luck Dragons: Should I regret a sell high/buy low Taillon/Castillo switch a few weeks ago?

Brad Johnson: Nah. Pretty even looking to me

Krush D: Aaron Sanchez worth holding? Walker Buehler is available

Brad Johnson: I think I’d keep him over Buehler

Brad Johnson: The lady is begging me to go place tennis since the weather is finally nice. Time to wrap it up

Chapo: OK, what is Nomar Mazara going to end up as? I’m at a loss. Looks good, but no walks and no power.

Brad Johnson: I think the light eventually clicks and he’s something like 30 HR, mid-order threat

Brad Johnson: No idea when that happens. Looking increasingly like it’ll take awhile

Brad Johnson: For example, I’m still 100% on board for a Maikel Franco breakout.

Brad Johnson: It’ll happen barring injury

Brad Johnson: He might play in Asia before figuring it out though

Brad Johnson: Mazara could be on a frustratingly similar path

DRL: Why don’t you ever answer my questions Brad?

Brad Johnson: I get a LOT of questions. I have to skip wide swathes of them

Brad Johnson: Perhaps the bits I skip are not random

Brad Johnson: even though they feel random to me

Brad Johnson: Or perhaps you ask questions I can’t answer in rapid fire mode.

mike: drop josh bell for carpenter? standard 5×5

Brad Johnson: If you need the utility

Brad Johnson: otherwise it’s a push imo

Colby: Thoughts on Fernando Romero?  He just got the call.

Brad Johnson: He’s… interesting. The profile could lead to some big numbers, but the stats read like he’ll struggle

Regretful: Traded Acuna for Hoskins in redraft, did I make a mistake?

Brad Johnson: Seems reasonable

Brad Johnson: I don’t think you can really regret having Hoskins

Brad Johnson: unless he’s injured

tacopocket: wide swathes….that’s good.

CW: Thoughts on Romero in a 10 tm keep forever? Am I dropping him after the start, or you holding?

Brad Johnson: Seems too shallow to keep

CJ: Gotta commit to a SS, Andrelton Simmons or Chris Taylor ROS?

Brad Johnson: Do based on statistical need. I think they’re deceptively close overall

Brad Johnson: Simmons better AVG, Taylor more power

Lewis: Who’s the dentist?

Brad Johnson: Delino DeShields

Brad Johnson: DDS

Brad Johnson: get it?

Chucky : Mike Stanton flying under the radar as Biggest Disappointment. AL pitching a little better than he anticipated?

Brad Johnson: Man I haven’t seen Mike Stanton pitch in forever…

Breezy: Boxberger going to hold the closer job in ARI?

Brad Johnson: I think so

Brad Johnson: it’ll be a rocky ride from time to time

Brad Johnson: they stuck with Rodney though…

Billy Beane: Peter Alonso is 4 years older than Vlad Jr, my dude. If they were pitchers I guess you could say that they were coparable, because age matters less, but Peter Alonso has been marginally better than Vlad Jr while also being old enough to buy alcohol since before Vlad could sign his own contracts.

Brad Johnson: I said they weren’t comparable…

Brad Johnson: but I also said Alonso could pull a Hoskins

Brad Johnson: Vladito could pull a god

Brad Johnson: if we’re talking upside

Henry Rowengartner: Nola for Teoscar in a 12 team H2H.  Fair?

Brad Johnson: Gross

Brad Johnson: Need like 5 Teoscars for Nola

Brad Johnson: And on this note, I bid you adieu

Lewis: Ohhhhh (slaps forehead)