2018 Potential HR/FB Decliners
Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters whose xHR/FB rates most exceeded their actual HR/FB rates, suggesting the potential for dramatic upside in the near term. Today, let’s check in on those hitters on the opposite side of the ledger — those whose actual HR/FB rates most exceed their xHR/FB marks. This is the group at major risk of regression.
| Player | Brls/True FB | FB Pull% | FB Oppo% | Avg FB Distance | HR/FB | xHR/FB | HR/FB – xHR/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Desmond | 33.3% | 0.0% | 58.3% | 363 | 33.3% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Bryce Harper | 39.1% | 25.0% | 41.7% | 342 | 33.3% | 24.2% | 9.1% |
| Kyle Schwarber | 56.3% | 31.6% | 31.6% | 329 | 36.8% | 28.0% | 8.8% |
| Josh Reddick | 22.7% | 39.3% | 35.7% | 309 | 21.4% | 14.6% | 6.8% |
| Matt Davidson | 75.0% | 41.2% | 29.4% | 377 | 52.9% | 46.3% | 6.7% |
| Didi Gregorius | 24.3% | 34.1% | 24.4% | 324 | 24.4% | 17.9% | 6.5% |
| Jose Peraza | 3.7% | 17.9% | 39.3% | 262 | 7.1% | 0.7% | 6.5% |
| Mike Trout | 35.1% | 17.5% | 37.5% | 321 | 25.0% | 18.7% | 6.3% |
| Howie Kendrick | 27.8% | 10.5% | 36.8% | 329 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 6.0% |
| Justin Bour | 31.3% | 21.1% | 52.6% | 301 | 21.1% | 15.1% | 6.0% |
| Population Average | 26.2% | 22.9% | 40.8% | 320 | 12.8% | 15.4% | -2.6% |
Man, is Ian Desmond’s statistical profile crazy or what?! That’s a big fat zero for his FB Pull%. And a look at his batted ball profile reveals that he’s hit few fly balls at just a 17.1% rate. This would mark the sixth straight season of FB% decline. Insane! It’s nice that the few fly balls he has hit have been crushed though. Still, he can’t maintain a 30%+ HR/FB rate, and since he rarely hits flies to begin with, he might struggle to reach 20 homers.
Bryce Harper has been doing everything right so far, but he hasn’t been this good. Expect some regression here, but you’re really just praying he remains healthy all season.
Is this the major breakout we’ve been waiting for from Kyle Schwarber? He has cut his SwStk% and resulting strikeout rate to his lowest career marks. And he’s still hitting for massive power. Who knows if that’s sustainable, but he’s looking quite good. And note that his xHR/FB ranks eighth, so even though we know he won’t sustain his current mark, he has been one of the best.
Josh Reddicks owns a below average Brls/True FB and Avg FB Distance, and yet has managed a HR/FB rate above 20%. His xHR/FB only gets into the mid-teens thanks to a big FB Pull%. While that might be sustainable, his HR/FB rate is sure to tumble back into the teens.
Okay, seriously…MATT DAVIDSON?!?!?! We knew he had power, but he has been ridiculous so far. Check out that combination of Brls/True FB and Avg FB Distance!! I guess his minor league track record did suggest his plate discipline would improve, but no one saw a breakout of this magnitude coming. You won’t get a top five rounder for him if you tried selling high, so I’d just hold and enjoy.
Didi Gregorius is in the midst of a clear breakout, as his walk rate has more than tripled, and his strikeout rate has improved for a fourth straight season. xHR/FB rate isn’t totally buying the power outburst, but even a 17.9% HR/FB rate would easily eclipse his previous high set last season.
LOL on Jose Peraza. You’d think it would be hard to get lucky with just a 7.1% HR/FB rate, but xHR/FB surely thinks he has. That Avg FB Distance is second worst in baseball. It’s hard to believe he finishes the season with a full-time job.
Mike Trout’s Avg FB Distance is at a career low going back to 2015 when we have the Statcast data. He has failed to make up for it with increases in Brls/True FB or FB Pull%. It’s fine, I don’t think there’s anything to worry about of course. But he might lose some ticks off that HR/FB rate.
It still amazes me that Howie Kendrick couldn’t find an every day job.
It would appear that Justin Bour is picking up right where he left off last year in the HR/FB rate department. But his Brls/True FB is down below both his 2017 and 2016 marks, while his Avg FB Distance has plummeted. Surrounded by a weak supporting cast that will limit his RBI and runs scored opportunities, I’m not interested in shallow mixed leagues.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Ian Desmond is such a dumpster fire. 73% GB-rate and career-high soft contact. Worst impulse buy ever. “It’ll be nice to get those steals from the 1B slot” I told myself…
steals from 1B and surely at Coors he can hit 25 HRs…every freaking year…he’ll retire someday and then I won’t be able to draft him
Somebody downvoted this? I thought it was funny
It’s time for the Rockies to see what they have in McMahon. I understand he hasn’t been good so far but give him two weeks where the job is his and see what he does – he certainly can’t be worse than Desmond at this point.
Wil Myers my man
I have expected to see Ozzie Albies on this because of things I heard elsewhere about how his exit velocity is very low given his number of HR. Nice to see that some stats obviously back up what he is doing!
He was one of the players I meant to check to see how his xHR/FB rate compared, but totally forgot 🙁
Considering the health of the Nationals at 2B, LF, 3B, I think Kendrick might get 140 games this year.
To be fair, Peraza doesn’t have a job because he hits fly balls far. He could fail to hit another home run all season, but if he can hit .290, walk a little more, and steal 25+ bases it’ll be a step in the right direction, and I don’t think there’s anyone that Cincy is itching to replace him with.
Davidson still can’t hit anything in the upper part of the strike zone, particularly fastballs. Amazing to me that pitchers are pitching him low in the zone so much. I expect a major regression as opposing pitchers wise up.
With that said, not sure how someone pulls of a 42% xHRFB.
Good piece, Mike, but we can’t resist pointing out that we did foresee Davidson’s breakout. He was one of our Bold Predictions: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-birchwood-brothers-10-bold-predictions-garage-sale-gourmets/
Merry Christmas! an early gift from the KC Royals. 🙁
I’m surprised, yet happy, that Ablies didn’t make this list. Really thought he would be a HR regression guy.
Edit: would help to load the rest of the comments.