We’re heading out to San Diego to check out a pair of waiver gems who are turning heads all across the league. I think both are showing a level of statistical significance such that they can’t just be sloughed off as small sample miracles. Of course neither will keep this absurd pace they’ve opened up, but if you’re ever judging April waiver pickups on that standard, then you’re probably not making many moves.

In This Issue:

• Christian Villanueva
• Joey Lucchesi

Read the rest of this entry »

This is going to get ugly fast. Here is my current Tout Wars pitching staff:

That’s right, it contains three of the biggest disappoints so far this season. The results have my team posting a 4.88 ERA. The next closest is at 4.35. The destruction has my WHIP also in last place. It’s time to examine the trio to see if there is any hope.

Before getting to these three, owners should now start examining their pitchers in detail to see what is and isn’t working. Spending a minute or two on each pitcher can possibly unearth items such as lost velocity or a new pitch mix.

Chris Archer

I knew Archer was a risk with his two-pitch arsenal which may get lit up later in games. This season, he can’t even make it to those later innings.

Read the rest of this entry »

We chatted about a number of topics. Now I’m sleepy. Here’s a transcript. Time for a siesta.

Read the rest of this entry »

Heading into Monday’s schedule, the Braves were the only team in the majors to not have recorded a save, but Arodys Vizcaino put an end to that shutout. In limiting the Phillies to a Nick Williams single in the top of the ninth inning, Vizcaino protected a 2-1 lead and gave himself his first save of 2018.

Much of Vizcaino’s save drought can be tied to the Braves having played in several lopsided contests early in the season. When he was finally presented with a save opportunity last Wednesday against the Nationals, he let a one-run lead evaporate by giving up a solo home run to Matt Adams. Even if Vizcaino had some save chances earlier on, he may not have fared well. He walked six batters over his first four appearances, which covered 3.2 innings, and he threw a paltry 52.4 percent of his pitches for strikes.
Read the rest of this entry »

Why “Hot Potato?” Because sometimes it’s best to not agonize over the title.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Well…

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I discussed the early fly ball & line drive exit velocity surgers. Today, let’s dive into the decliners. Explanations for such a dramatic drop in exit velocity ranges from a small sample cold streak, playing through injury, or good old deterioration of power skills. If only we knew which of those explanations applied to each player!

Read the rest of this entry »

The Roto Riteup is in favor of protecting future generations, but not in favor of mascots:

When the mascot saves a kid’s life!!! ?? pic.twitter.com/X56YmsWAtp

— MLB Memes (@MLBMeme) April 16, 2018

So conflicted…

Read the rest of this entry »

As a Twitter dork, I’m exposed to a lot of discussion about swinging strike rates (SwStr%), so much so that it almost feels like it has supplanted xFIP (or other comparable metrics) as a catch-all way to evaluate pitchers. Dude has a 12.5% whiff rate! Sweet. It’s not for naught — swinging strike rate bears a strong correlation to strikeout rate (K%), which comprises substantial portions of the regression equations that underpin the aforementioned xFIP and its counterparts. Swinging strike rate’s correlation to the following metrics (using data from the last five years of 714 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in a given season):

• K%: r = 0.83
• SIERA*: r = 0.61
• xFIP*: r = 0.55
• FIP: r = 0.50
• ERA: r = 0.40

(*See footnote.)

It also correlates strongly year over year (among 392 player-seasons during the same timeframe in which the pitcher threw 100 innings in the current and subsequent seasons):

Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday, I examined hitters with new plate approaches focusing on launch angle and plate discipline. I notice Brad Miller, Javier Baez, and Leonys Martin had each dropped their groundball rate but I didn’t have an idea of what is the ideal value. After spending way too much going down way too many paths this past weekend, the simple answer is average 20 degrees (32% GB%) with weak and/or fast hitters needing to push the value down to 15 degrees (42% GB%).

There is no need for readers to hang around any longer if they have more pressing matters like setting their daily or weekly lineups. For those looking for a little more explanation, thanks for staying around. I went through several methods I’m not going to discuss. I like simple useable answers and that’s what I’ll provide today.

Read the rest of this entry »

Saying that Dan Vogelbach is on the verge of fantasy relevance takes some storytelling cues from “The Boy Who Cried Wolf.” Back in 2016, it seemed like only a matter of time until Vogey was a regular fantasy contributor. In the first half of 2016, Vogelbach hit .318/.425/.548 in Triple-A Iowa, with 16 homers and 18 doubles in 89 games. However, with Anthony Rizzo entrenched at first base, Vogey didn’t seem to have a role with the Cubs, so they dealt him to Seattle in exchange for Mike Montgomery.

Mostly because of his poor defense — but certainly also due in part to his non-athletic body — Vogelbach was never a darling of top prospect lists, but for fantasy purposes he seemed like a relatively sure thing for production in Seattle. As it turned out, he slowed down a bit after joining the Mariners system, hitting .240/.404/.422 over the final 44 games of 2016, and with Adam Lind performing at an okay-ish rate for the major-league club, it seemed Vogey would have to wait until 2017 to strut his chubby stuff in the big leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »