The Grind is back baby! An exciting new season brings new opportunities.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational Returns!
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Patronage

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Almost exactly six years ago, I published a study that suggested pitcher spring training strikeout and walk rates had some predictive value for the upcoming season. Not a lot, of course, but there was definitely something there that shouldn’t be ignored like the rest of spring stats. I looked at all pitchers who have logged at least 15 innings this spring, and then compared their strikeout rate to the Pod Projection strikeout rate. Let’s discuss the 10 starting pitchers that enjoyed the largest spikes. I’ll take a look back at the end of the season to see if these surges really were prescient.

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Hey guys… it’s Opening Day!

via GIPHY

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3/29/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @enosarris – Guest!

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Salvador Perez out 4-6 wks
• Nathan Eovaldi done probably
• A.J. Puk done

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Opening day is now just one short day away. The days this week seem to creep by ever so slowly for a baseball lover. We have already had our fantasy drafts and auctions, and now we want to watch/see how our teams will perform, both fantasy and in real life. Baseball is back … and this year, we get to watch real baseball games that start to count in March!

Below are my 2018 bold predictions. Some of them stem directly from a small stretch of the ATC Projections, which can be found here on FanGraphs. Others come from my own personal analysis on the player, or team situation. The rest arise from some sheer wild optimism, but I have convinced myself that it could happen.

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The Cardinals have added Jordan Hicks to their major league bullpen. The move comes as a surprise with Hicks skipping both Double and Triple-A. While Hicks’s role is not defined, he’s a talented pitcher who can’t be ignored.

The 21-year-old righty has previously shown a plus fastball. Here are the various scouting reports on it.

• FanGraphs: Grade 50/55, “…routinely sitting 94 or better during the regular season, Hicks’ heater sat 97-100 in the Fall League … trouble keeping it down … doesn’t play like an 80-grade fastball…”
• MLB.com: Grade: 70, “… fastball will sit in the mid-90s, frequently touch the upper-90s and flirt with triple digits, all with plus natural movement…”
• Baseball America: Grade: 70, “… 93-98 mph with his fastball, sits 95, and touches 101 in short bursts…holds his velocity … fastball plays up further with arm side life…”
• BHQ: Grade: 4+, 93-98 “… sits 93-96, topping at 100 mph with good late sink…”

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All auctions have completed for my nine ottoneu leagues (FanGraphs Points), so it’s time for me to lay out my portfolio of player shares once again. I made a concerted effort to have a more diversified portfolio than last year , where I owned two different players in ten out of eleven leagues, and two more in eight out of eleven leagues. Those four players really didn’t work out well for me (Pedro Alvarez, Cal Quantrill, Jaime Garcia, and Shawn Kelley), so I’m hoping my most owned players this season decide not to sink my (champion)ship hopes.

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Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that far more difficult to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, though. Given that there is both more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.

In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is challenging to balance boldness with realistic, considering this requires me to bet against a group of names in which it’s like a 95% lock that one of them wins the category. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category. I decided against a bold wins league leader, because wins are silly and unpredictable. All I usually do is pick a good pitcher on a top offense.

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The Roto Riteup believes that honesty is the best policy.

“I ain’t getting this one, boys.”@mookiebetts with the live play-by-play. pic.twitter.com/F10eL0dzkX

— MLB (@MLB) March 27, 2018

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A plethora of information is available to fantasy owners with most just a repeat from one season to the next. For this reason, it’s tough to find anything new or helpful. Joe Rosales has stepped forward this year to provide six pages of useful injury nuggets in the Bill James Handbook, especially relating to catchers. Here are some of the highlights

1. Baseball Info Solutions is now collecting detailed injury information

Finally, and good luck. Building a comprehensive database is the key component to really understanding injuries. From personal experience, it’s just a pain-in-the-ass to track in-season injuries and also compile the end-of-season database. While, I’m sure the information is not going to be free to the public, at least the information is being collected for someone like Mr. Rosales to compile.

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