Archive for March, 2018

Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3/6/2018

The transcript is posted as well as a plea for votes.

Meanwhile, go vote in the #MyWalkUpSong contest. I’ve entered Dies Irae as performed by Epica. Can you just imagine the stadium-wide chills as Aaron Judge walks to the plate with the bases loaded and this blasting on the mega-speakers? Ahh, it’s so good!

I’m opposed by some sort of thought piece which requires a paragraph of explanation.

3:51
Brad Johnson: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a few moments.

3:54
Matt Parrington: What was Byron Buxton’s WAR beyond the first decimal point?

3:54
Brad Johnson: Hey Louie, it was 9.

3:55
Bryzzohtani 🙁: Chris Davis or Logan Morrison? Pts league

3:55
Brad Johnson: With Davis a little banged up and possibly falling off a cliff, I’m leaning LoMo.

3:56
Brad Johnson: They’re both pretty similar assets – late round 30 HR options. Davis will likely have the better lineup role and closer to guaranteed play due to his terrible contract. I think LoMo is slightly more talented overall.

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Pod vs Steamer — ERA Upside

It’s pitching time! After comparing my hitter projections to Steamer, let’s now check in on the pitchers. I’ll start by comparing starting pitcher ERA from my Pod Projections with Steamer. I have decided to only list and discuss pitchers I have projected for a sub-4.00 ERA. Do you really care if I project a pitcher for a 4.40 ERA versus 5.50 by Steamer? Nope. I also left out two free agents, Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb, who would have made this list.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 529 – LABR Review

3/5/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Leading Off

  • The industry loses a titan. RIP Steve Moyer.

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

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LABR Weekend Thoughts: Free Agents, Inflation, & a Heavy Heart

The LABR only league auctions are a fantastic way to start off the fantasy season (AL and NL results). I’m co-captaining one of the AL-only teams with Eno Sarris who is making one last attempt for a championship. Here are some takeaways from the weekend.

For a quick rundown of the rules.

  • 12 teams
  • 23 players, 9 pitchers, 14 hitters (two catchers)
  • 5×5 roto with AVG
  • $260 budget

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Observable Real Time Strategy

Hey Justin Mason, this industry slow draft thing was a good idea! I’m of course referring to The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational aka TGFBI aka NFBC for industry nerds. The most beautiful thing about it? I can report on my internal thought process in real time. In a typical draft, everything happens too quickly. Any after-the-fact explanation feels like a self-congratulatory narrative.

With four hours per pick and 15 owners taking their sweet time*, I can very thoughtfully tinker and tailor my approach. Spying is an option too (you’ll see), but I haven’t found a role for soldiering. As I mentioned last Friday, the original plan was to take a contrarian approach. I’m not just trying to beat 14 other industry rivals, I want to win the whole shabam. Achieving ultimate victory requires out-drafting, out-managing, and out-waiver wiring 194 opponents. It’s a tall order. To this point, my roster isn’t feeling very contrary. Let’s explore.

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Pod vs Steamer — Stolen Base Downside

Last Thursday, I highlighted nine hitters my Pod Projections suggested enjoyed stolen base upside when compared to Steamer projections. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters who my forecasts hint at downside versus Steamer.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 2nd, 2018

Check out the transcript below!

3:33

Paul Sporer: Poppin’ a quick 30 minute chat! Shorter questions have a better chance of being answered, let’s gooooo!!!

3:33

Buttz: Gotta go quick so you can watch that Twitch stream

3:34

Paul Sporer: ya damn right! and I had to hit the back doctor today so I’m on a tighter schedule

3:34

Twotimes: is ZiPS going to be available in the Auction Calc this year?

3:34

Paul Sporer: Yep, when it’s all released

3:34

Tom: Crazy to take two SP with my top two picks in a 5×5 OBP league? I pick eighth, seems to me ace caliber pitching is somewhat scarce here.

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My Dream Legend Pitcher List for MLB The Show 18

Later today, Sony San Diego Studios will have their most anticipated stream regarding MLB The Show 18 as they cover Diamond Dynasty – the game’s online mode. In my first video game piece here, I covered my hitter wishlist for ’18 and we’ve already seen a pair of them come through with Vladimir Guerrero announced a couple weeks back and Albert Belle revealed just this week. In fact, the developers have had a banner year in legend announcements and we’re still three weeks from release.

In addition to those two, we’ve also learned that Babe Ruth, Bob Gibson, Frank Thomas, and Mike Piazza are on the way. And those are just the uber-stars. I’m plenty excited to see the likes of Joe Torre, Troy Percival, and Benito Santiago get in the game. We’ve been told that 30 new legends in all will be coming into the player pool and 14 have been announced thus far. Check the running list here. My guess for this afternoon’s stream is a big 1990s-2000s era starting pitcher will be revealed. It’s purely a hunch/hope, but that’s where I’m planting my prediction flag. With that in mind, I want to share my top five pitcher wishlist which happens to include guys all from that era. This wasn’t just to match up with my prediction, I’ve had this list put together for a while now, but only recently finished the write ups due to some other projects taking precedent.

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An Exercise Featuring Cody Bellinger

I recently had a trade discussion in an ottoneu league (this isn’t an ottoneu specific article, bear with me). Anyway, I was trying to sell a veteran outfielder and a top pitching prospect for Cody Bellinger. Their salaries were about equal. My sales pitch: the veteran projects for a comparable FGpts total to Bellinger. The prospect pays for the nine year age gap. The offer was firmly declined. My sales pitch was roundly poo-pooed.

Let’s see what you think.

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10 Starting Pitchers To Consider In Deep Leagues

It can be a struggle in deep leagues to fill out the final arms in your staff. Instead of talking about popular targets to chase in the middle rounds, I’m going to highlight ten starters to consider when searching for the final arms of your 15-teamer staff.

I originally set the ADP threshold at past the 300 mark, but I elected to dive a little deeper, setting the bar at 350 instead. That means guys I’d recommend targetting like Mike Minor, Dan Straily, German Marquez, Mike Leake, and Matt Shoemaker are off the list. This is legit deep, not that weak stuff.
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