In my Monday post discussing how park factors may affect Zack Cozart’s performance, I responded to a comment opining that “the Angels IF defense is going to be insane” with the following:

The offense should be above average and that defense and upgraded offense means potentially serious bumps to Angels starting pitchers.

I said that without actually doing any research on how the Angels defense performed in 2017 or looking into the batted ball distributions of the pitchers and how that matches with the strengths of the fielding unit. So let’s do that now.

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“… pros were more likely to ride a wave of irrational exuberance than to fight it. One reason is that it is risky to be a contrarian. ‘Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally’” – Richard Thaler in Misbehaving

At the root level, fantasy baseball is about acquiring more undervalued assists than your opponents. Everyone wants a first-round talent for a last round price (e.g. Aaron Judge). With teams clamoring to acquire every advantage, they are insistent on wasting away an early draft advantage. In early 2018 drafts I’ve participated in, an early emphasis on middle infielders is inflating their value way beyond their projected production. Is the observation wrong? If so why? If not, how can an owner take advantage of this mispricing?

Note: For this article, I will lump second basemen and shortstops together into one middle infield position. Neither position has more talent than the other and the bottom players will be used to fill a middle infield position.

For those who have recently created mixed-league valuations, positional scarcity doesn’t exist besides with catcher. I use the method outlined in Larry Schechter’s book, Winning Fantasy Baseball to determine my values. I’m not going to go into the process’s exact details but it’s the standard procedure used by fantasy experts to prep for auctions. Even a couple years ago a small amount of positional scarcity existed but a huge influx of good middle infielders has raised the group’s overall talent level up to the other positions.

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Here’s today’s chat transcript. Some Phillies spare outfielder talk mixed in with the usual range of dynasty questions.

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A month ago, I compared “name-brand” and “generic-brand” players using blind résumés, an exercise we’ve reiterated across several authors and years at RotoGraphs. A few years ago, you’d never find me in a mock draft, let alone several in one preseason. (More a matter of blocking out three hours on a whim, but also I probably (very foolishly) thought I didn’t need to partake in such trivialities.)

I’m super, super into the whole slow draft mock thing, though; I’ve completed a few this preseason, and I think they have already helped me understand the kinds of market inefficiencies (i.e., differences between perceived and actual values) that will arise on draft day. One of the easiest ways to identify said inefficiencies is to compare similarly skilled players, then assess their other pros and cons — the intangibles, if you will, such as health and age — to determine who’s the better value.

Here are a couple more pairings:

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Last week, the Athletics traded for Stephen Piscotty, alleviating a bit of the great depth in the Cardinals outfield. Piscotty is coming off a forgettable offensive performance, in which he dealt with injuries, a minor league demotion, and the terrible news that his mother was diagnosed with ALS. Typically, the knee-jerk reaction is a move to Oakland will likely hamper a hitter’s offensive results. But surprisingly, this appears to be one of those rare instances in which the park switch may actually provide a boost. Let’s dive in.

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Jonathan Villar burst onto the scene in 2016 with 19 HR and 62 steals. He was going 19th overall in 2017 NFBC drafts and was a huge disappointment when he hit posted a .293 OBP, 11 HR, and 23 SB. With 2018 drafts starting, I’ve seen his ADP (200) way below where he should go using his Steamer projection (~118). The disconnect is understandable but not to the current level. Opportunity exists for huge upside.

Just for reference, here are Villar’s basic stats from the past four seasons and his 2018 Steamer projection.

Of all the values which changed his value from 2016 to 2017 was the 76-percentage point drop in OBP. Less times on base meant fewer steals and runs scored. An OBP under .300 is kill for any hitter.

Besides the scoreboard stats, here are his 2nd order stats over the same time frame.

His plate discipline is the biggest discrepancy over the past two season seasons with his K%-BB% jumping from 14% to 23%. Even though he maintained similar power and groundball rates, the overall decline in contact rate while swinging more did him in.
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This offseason, I’m taking the time to study the arms that deserve a little bit of extra attention. Sure, every starter should get a bit more than your standard gloss over, but you know Max Scherzer is a top tier starter and you’re aware that Andrew Cashner will not come close to repeating his 3.40 ERA. I can also imagine that Jose Quintana will be getting this standard treatment by many. You’re going to have some that consider him a stable arm and grab him as a #2 SP and you have others – myself included – that treat him as someone who will wait to see him fall before considering him for your staff.

But that was the old me. Quintana made a significant tweak in his approach this season and I didn’t know any better.

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So the Angels are apparently going for it all, eh? First, they signed Shohei Otani, then traded for Ian Kinsler, and have now signed Zack Cozart, who figures to play third base with defensive stud Andrelton Simmons entrenched at shortstop. Moving out of the perceived hitter friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati and into an environment perceived to be far more favorable for pitchers, let’s find out how the relevant park factors may impact Cozart’s performance.

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12/15/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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• @sporer
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• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Carlos Santana to PHI (0:54)
• Zack Cozart to LAA/Ian Kinsler trade (16:28)
• Marcell Ozuna trade (31:40)
• Stephen Piscotty trade (34:50)
• Freddy Galvis trade (45:45)
• Middle Reliever Bonanza (53:00)
  • Juan Nicasio to SEA
  • Brandon Morrow to CHC
  • Fernando Rodney to MIN
  • Brandon Kintzler back to WAS
  • Hector Rondon to HOU

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There are only two types of trades – those of necessity and arbitrage. Let’s talk about them today.

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