Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 12/19/2017

Here’s today’s chat transcript. Some Phillies spare outfielder talk mixed in with the usual range of dynasty questions.

2:45
Brad Johnson: Hey folks, let’s get started once I spam twitter a little

2:46
Bobopedia: for the next 4 years, Brian Dozier or Yoan Moncada? Competitive window is ajar this year, but the following three years will have a more open window

2:47
Brad Johnson: Ooh, I’m a sucker for present value, but Dozier isn’t likely to be productive 3 or 4 years from now

2:48
Brad Johnson: Moncada could look something like Dozier as soon as 2018. I’d bet on Moncada to be better by 2020.

2:48
Brad Johnson: Given that you don’t seem too keen about 2018, I’d lean Moncada

2:48
kolten wong: Should I be worried about max schrock?

2:48
Brad Johnson: Worry about yourself

2:48
Brad Johnson: You’re basically Jon Jay with 2B eligibility

2:49
Brad Johnson: The scouting reports on Schrock aren’t very enthusiastic so I wouldn’t go out of my way to acquire him

2:50
Brad Johnson: Might just be one of those guys who does well in the minors but is overmatched in the majors. No carrying tools if he’s not making elite contact.

2:50
Snake the Jake: Would you trade 5 years of Gary Sanchez for 6 years of Chance Sisco and Brent Honeywell? Or Gary for 4 years of Nola?

2:50
Snake the Jake: Or neither?

2:50
Brad Johnson: Super neither

2:50
Brad Johnson: Those offers are terrible

2:50
Brad Johnson: Unless it’s like a 0.25 catcher league

2:51
Pie: In my Ottoneu leauge, there’s a few teams that have around $200 they need to shed going into the draft. What’s the best way to bring up a trade in this situation? I don’t want to give up good, young talent for guys that I can just get in the draft when they are cut, but any bid that I think compensates the other teams fairly are viewed as lowball offers and immediately rejected.

2:51
Brad Johnson: You probably need to wait until there’s a little pressure on them to make a swap. Most likely, they’ll try to cut down to budget with one big move – i.e. getting $7 Andrus for $69 Kershaw

2:51
Brad Johnson: (that’s what I did)

2:52
Dave: Whathca think about trading a $34 Rizzo and $6 Pham for $16 Lindor?

2:52
Brad Johnson: Overpay, but not atrocious.

2:52
Pittsburgh Ryan: Hey Brad, your thoughts on David Dahl in 2018? Oh and Ottoneu 12 team 5×5 – $55 Betts for $29 Braun and $12 Dahl. Take the two for one or pass since Dahl is a question mark

2:53
Brad Johnson: I get asked about Dahl every week. I don’t have any insights besides that he should be nearly free in most formats (including ottoneu). He’s like a $3 player there until he proves otherwise.

2:53
Brad Johnson: Betts for days in this situation.

2:53
Dylan: Looking to join an Ottoneu league for the first time. Can you give me any tips on what the process is? Should I join a league now or wait until February?

2:54
Brad Johnson: I’d recommend a fresh league if you can find one. Just be ready for a very long draft. Could always do a fresh league and an existing one though.

2:54
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Do you know of any English sites that does fantasy for NPB?

2:54
Brad Johnson: Nope

2:54
Brad Johnson: Cool idea though

2:54
resumeman: I noticed that the park factors on the Guts! page haven’t been updated since the 2015 season. Are there any plans to bring them up to date?

2:55
Brad Johnson: That’s funny, I complained about that internally earlier today

2:55
Brad Johnson: Probably

2:55
Slapshot: I have a bit of an ottoneu keeper issue with the Carlos Santana ($15) signing in Philadelphia, as I have both Altherr ($7) and Nick Williams ($4) on my roster.  How do you see that roster logjam playing out, and should I look to trade or cut any of those guys at those prices as a result?

2:55
Brad Johnson: Can probably just wait for it to solve itself via injury or trade

2:56
Brad Johnson: Seems likely that one of Altherr or Williams will be traded for a pitcher

2:56
Brad Johnson: And if not, somebody will land on the DL

2:56
Brad Johnson: I may return to the backlog later, let’s fast forward to the present

2:56
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: “The scouting reports on Schrock aren’t very enthusiastic“ Carson is going to get you fired for that comment.

2:57
Brad Johnson: Carson specifically writes about players whose scouting reports aren’t very enthusiastic

2:57
Nelson: Whats better: 25$ Yu, 34$ Kluber (otto prices)

2:57
Brad Johnson: Gimme Kluber

2:58
Nelson: Jake Lamb more of the same – .250 -30HRs? Is that about the same as Sano, or Sano get to 35?

2:58
Brad Johnson: Projections might look similar but Sano could go wild. I suppose Lamb could also find another gear. Sano still has that superstar upside though

2:59
Guest: Hi Brad, Following up from a question last week regarding FAABs in my 13 team salary cap league.  How many pick ups is fair when we have with a 15 man bench and should dropping a player be needed? Also should they be a set cost like $5 or cost what you bid on them for? Thanks a bunch.

2:59
Brad Johnson: If you have a FAAB, you don’t need a cap or a minimum bid

2:59
greg bird: 2016 and 2017 I’m getting the same prospect hype.  Are you believing in me?

3:00
Brad Johnson: I go back and forth on this. I think it’s a lot easier to see the downside, but the potential remains attractive. The issue may be that you could get the same from Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso for a tiny fraction of the price.

3:00
fister colon: boring question i know but: given equal cost (26th round draft pick, 5 rnd inflation each year), who are your top 3 keepers? bellinger, hoskins, f freeman, buxton, smoak, gallo. thanks brad

3:00
Brad Johnson: Freeman for sure

3:00
Brad Johnson: Probably Buxton and Hoskins for the other two. Bellinger is obviously hard to pass though.

3:01
Brad Johnson: I guess decide who is more likely to regress – Bellinger or Hoskins. I happen to think Bellinger is the likelier to fall (seemed like he was solved in the postseason).

3:01
Joe Musgrove : Do the Astros let me start again?

3:01
Brad Johnson: Swingman

3:02
Brad Johnson: You’ll get 10 or so starts next season. Musgrove was so good in relief though

3:02
tonyc: Villar went well into the 200s in the early industry mocks.  As far as I can tell he’s got a good shot to hold onto the starting job.  Buying opportunity?

3:02
Brad Johnson: Definitely a great buy at that price. I think he’ll climb the boards to the 150 range

3:02
A Random Dude: I’m currently only doing Yahoo keep-forever dynasty leagues (1 ESPN re-draft for monies). Started one last season with 14 teams and farm system via spreadsheet that I run. Looking to shed most of the lighter leagues; what kind of league(s) should I look at getting into, and how difficult would it be to get into them? Also, thoughts on Odor over the next like 5 years?

3:03
Brad Johnson: Finding a good dynasty league is a real challenge. I find ottoneu to be the most accessible dynasty-like experience.

3:03
Brad Johnson: Not just because we’re affiliated. It’s so challenging to find a dynasty league that isn’t rigged and therefore doomed to fold when the schmucks stop paying to stay

3:05
Brad Johnson: As for Odor, I’ve been warning people off him for years. His profile is so extreme. He’s basically a better Danny Espinosa. The price is probably right this year, assuming Willie Calhoun doesn’t somehow push him aside. I don’t think that’s a big risk.

3:05
Matt: Where you placing Kinsler next year? That lineup going to allow him to be a top 12 2B, or is he going to be more in the 10-20 range?

3:06
Brad Johnson: He’s leaving a very favorable hitting environment. I would not count on improved stats.

3:06
Brad Johnson: Detroit is tough on home runs and very friendly for everything else. And Kinsler is mostly an everything else hitter these days

3:06
Brad Johnson: Angels Stadium is tough on everything

3:07
Brad Johnson: I’m not convinced he’ll hang onto a top-of-the-order role

3:07
Charles Scott: Hey, Brad, thanks for chatting.

3:07
Brad Johnson: You’re welcome

3:07
Charles Scott: Hey Brad, thanks for chatting.  Do you like Luis Castillo or Luke Weaver more next year?

3:08
Brad Johnson: Leaning Castillo, but they’re the same asset class. I do like that Weaver has Busch for a home park. GABP is a nightmare.

3:08
Matt: Will Conforto ever play again?

3:08
Brad Johnson: Of course

3:08
Brad Johnson: He might be disappointing this year though. Don’t forget this when trying to acquire him

3:08
Slamboni: PSA/Question: I am looking for a good Ottoneu league, but the posts on the page seem to be outdated/abandoned, how can I find a good league to join?!

3:09
Brad Johnson: I recommend getting set up with the ottoneu slack community. Trey Baughn and Justin Vibber know the way in.

3:09
Matt: Gimmie your thoughts on Shark. Does his consistency give him top 30 SP value? SP is so top heavy, I wonder – Is there really a difference between the 20th best SP and the 40th?

3:10
Brad Johnson: Shark is absolutely a top 30 SP. He’s probably a top 20 SP. Very few pitchers share his combination of stuff, durability, and deep starts. He can pull an Ervin Santana at the very least

3:10
Frankie Fourseams: Thoughts on McCullers this year? Ace upside if healthy?

3:10
Brad Johnson: Not exactly. He’ll pitch like an ace for the 5.1 innings he’s in the game. He’ll never be more than a long reliever who happens to pitch the first inning

3:11
Brad Johnson: An ace gives you 7 or more innings in half or more of his starts

3:11
Brad Johnson: You need that volume to reliably accumulate wins or QS

3:11
Brad Johnson: McCullers can’t give you those with any reliability

3:11
Matt: I just ran a version of SGP I created (that looks at value above average, instead of overall), and LoCain comes in at like $250 overall based on Depth Charts. What gives, yo?

3:12
Brad Johnson: Sounds like you mathfailed

3:12
Colonel Angus: Who are your Top 3 favorite buy-low candidates in 2018?

3:12
Brad Johnson: To be honest, we’re still in pre-ADP so it’s hard to really buy low with any accuracy

3:12
Brad Johnson: like Odor should be a buy low guy, but I won’t be surprised to see him going above his projection

3:13
Brad Johnson: Villar does seem like a kick-you-in-the-face value

3:13
Brad Johnson: I think Jerad Eickhoff could win 15 games if healthy with perfectly fine ratios

3:13
Brad Johnson: Bet he’ll cost a buck at most

3:13
Michael A Taylor: I see a 20/20 year out of him.  I don’t see a lot of hype around his potential.  He looks good in NLDS

3:14
Brad Johnson: I think we’re holding our breath while waiting to see what the Nats do. I still think they’ll sign JDM, pushing Taylor into a 4th OFer role

3:14
Brad Johnson: He’s also the obvious odd man out for Victor Robles

3:14
Bobopedia: Brian Dozier is entering his age 31 season. Is it just normal attrition that has you worry about his value 3-4 years from now, or is there something in his profile you don’t like?

3:15
Brad Johnson: It’s a mix of attrition and profile. I think he’s going to turn into a faster Todd Frazier very soon.

3:15
Matt Olson: What are my chances of hitting 35+ HR and having a .850+ OPS next year?

3:15
Brad Johnson: Low. 15%?

3:15
mike: Alex reyes or walker buehler

3:15
Brad Johnson: I’ll take Reyes, especially if we’re talking about 2018. Doubt we see more than 20 IP from Buehler.

3:16
Brad Johnson: Of course, I’d love to see Reyes pitch from a mound and hit upper-90s before committing

3:16
Not a Phillies Fan: Zack Godley or Charlie Morton in 2018?

3:16
Brad Johnson: Gimme Godley. Love Morton too though.

3:16
Brad Johnson: Morton is a good veteran like Rich Hill. I think Godley has an ace inside him

3:17
Brad Johnson: Had one of the highest ground ball rates for a starter with 13.3% SwStr, 9.59 K/9, and 3.08 Bb/9

3:18
Brad Johnson: As far as I can tell, the DBacks have quietly installed their humidor and it’ll be in use next year. Which should mitigate the league’s fastest infield. I’m betting on a 3.10 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to go with similar K rates.

3:18
Q: Would Quintana be worth $22 in a 13 teamer?  I have very limited funds due to buyouts.

3:19
Brad Johnson: In a vacuum, yes. Sometimes you’re forced to cut a keepable player. Better a pitcher than a similarly valued hitter.

3:19
Twinsfan: Who was the 25th player on the 1987 World Series winning Twins team.  Cannot find this answer anywhere.  Also how do you like the Twins next year.

3:19
Brad Johnson: I was born in 1987. I do not know. I do like the Twins, assuming they make a few additions to the pitching staff.

3:20
SSS: Buxton over Bellinger? Is that based off the strength of his finish? Because he finished 2016 great too, and then the first 4 months of 2017 happened.

3:20
Brad Johnson: Buxton’s a tough cookie to crack.

3:20
Brad Johnson: Or is he a tough cracker to cook?

3:20
Brad Johnson: I don’t know

3:20
Brad Johnson: I like the 20/40 potential he flashed. That’s sneaky valuable even if the rest of the profile scuffles

3:21
Brad Johnson: He’s one of the best base runners in the league and his elite defense ensures he’ll remain in the lineup through his slumps

3:21
Brad Johnson: He’s basically Keon Broxton with huge upside and safe playing time

3:21
Brad Johnson: And more SB

3:21
Matt: Re LoCain and my failed SGP – I meant #250…does your response change now that he’s at the bottom instead of the top?

3:22
Brad Johnson: Haha! That’s very different

3:22
Brad Johnson: That still smells wrong to me based on the 74/15/69/16/.288 projection

3:22
Brad Johnson: That’s a top 100 player

3:23
Brad Johnson: Maybe your method is hammering him for 595 PA. How are you treating replacement PA?

3:23
Not a Phillies Fan: Hey Brad, thanks for chatting. Love your insight on both short and long term fantasy baseball. How are you feeling about Gregory Polanco? Can he still be a 25/20 guy with health?

3:23
Brad Johnson: I think that’s overshooting things just a tad, but I do expect a big rebound once he’s healthy. That may not be early 2018.

3:24
A Random Dude: How worthwhile is it to flip high profile prospects for now assets? I managed to trade for Moncada in 2016, then flipped him and co. (my draft pick he took ended up being Hoskins) for Goldy and Fulmer. Should I consider doing the same with Acuna, Brendan Rodgers, and Rosario? Leaning towards doing this, but keeping Acuna.

3:24
Brad Johnson: I’d also lean towards keeping Acuna. He went for Goldy+Kluber in my 20 team dynasty league. Ask for similar

3:24
Brad Johnson: If someone meets that price, cool.

3:25
Brad Johnson: If not, convert the not hyper-elite names to MLB talent first

3:25
Brad Johnson: ultimately, it’s a matter of what you need. Fill needs, then find proven long term assets, then build up unproven longer term assets

3:25
SP Keeper League: I have Nola, Berrios, Jon Gray and Luis Castillo.   How do you rank these guys?

3:26
Brad Johnson: Nola then the other three are same asset class

3:26
Brad Johnson: Gray is technically best but Coors hurts enough to bump him down a tier or two

3:26
Scott: Where do you rank Chase Anderson and Zack Godley among SPs?

3:27
Brad Johnson: I don’t have rankings and I’m planning something completely different this year. Purely using ADP (once it’s reliable) plus projected team performance. Picking the best players early then filling category needs.

3:28
Brad Johnson: I’ll write about it in more detail at some point. I don’t recommend it unless you have everybody’s projections internalized.

3:28
Matt: Godley has an ace inside him? That’s an interesting way to cheat at poker.

3:28
Brad Johnson: Ace of Snakes

3:28
Desperate, confused Marlins fan: what are we doing with Verdugo? is Toles going to get in the way?

3:29
Brad Johnson: The Dodgers have embarrassing depth. Still. Something will shake loose. Personally, Verdugo + Kemp to the Phillies smells reasonable to me. Then Kemp+all the cash to the Rays for an extra tidbit. Or maybe Verdugo, Kemp, cash, and Kingery for Archer?

3:30
Brad Johnson: I’m getting ahead of myself.

3:30
Brad Johnson: The Dodgers aren’t actually going to be under the lux cap unless they get someone to eat Kemp though.

3:30
Frankie Fourseams: Ok. Thanks for the answer on McCullers. Is there a better target for “ace upside that hasn’t quite clicked yet” in that similar price/ranking range?

3:30
Brad Johnson: Godley

3:30
Joe: Sano at $29 or Gallo at $6 in a points league?

3:30
Brad Johnson: Gallo is too similar to justify the discrepancy

3:30
Waldo: Kopech or Walker Buehler in 2018 and beyond?

3:31
Brad Johnson: Kopech? These are all dart throws. Think about all the recent top pitching prospects.

3:32
Brad Johnson: That’s Thor, Severino, Fulmer, Berrios, Glasnow, Giolito, Reyes, and Urias

3:32
Brad Johnson: How many of them are actually established pitchers?

3:32
Brad Johnson: Which of them hasn’t either spent a season injured or completely disappointed in performance?

3:33
Brad Johnson: The first question is around 3.5 of 7. The second is 0 of 7.

3:33
Matt: Does JP Crawford fall in the “better real prospect than fantasy prospect” category?

3:33
Brad Johnson: Yessir

3:33
Brad Johnson: He could go Lindor though. The MiLB profiles were very similar. JPC has better plate discipline.

3:34
Brad Johnson: That said, Lindor going Lindor was a low percentage outcome. He was supposed to be more like Simmons.

3:34
Not a Phillies Fan: Hey Brad, any love for Kevin Gausman after his 2nd half last year? Another tease from him or has he legit turned a corner?

3:34
Brad Johnson: I dunno man

3:34
Brad Johnson: That man is a damned tub of rolaids

3:34
Brad Johnson: I’m glad I never quite get shares of him

3:35
Brad Johnson: I’d plan to sit out the draft unless he’s super cheap. Then just pick him up midseason when he has a 6.50 ERA. That’s what I keep doing. It works.

3:35
Nelson: do you like or stay away from Joey Gallo. I love him, but his avg is a huge anchor

3:35
Brad Johnson: Both. I try to avoid building around players that actively torpedo categories. If we’re talking a late pick, that’s one thing. If we looking top 100 or so, I prefer well-rounded production

3:35
Charles Scott: Do you think Madison Bumgarner bounces back to approach the Big 4, or is he more risk than reward?

3:36
Brad Johnson: I think he’ll bounce back. But a fully resurgent Bumgarner probably isn’t actually a top 4 pitcher. He went that high in past drafts because he was super healthy, not because his projected ratios justified it.

3:36
Nick Castellanos: Does his rebuilding Tigers team hurt value this year?

3:37
Brad Johnson: He doesn’t need any help hurting his value. He’s a very unimpressive player.

3:37
Matt: Brad – you have great advice for daily add/transaction leagues.  Do you have any tenets you live by in weekly add/weekly lineup leagues?

3:38
Brad Johnson: Well, ideally, you want to prioritize hitters with an every day role. Pay attention to platoon guys with bad projected matchups. Look for two-start pitchers. Often a Trevor Williams two-start off the waiver wire is more valuable than a lone McCullers outing (or similar).

3:39
Brad Johnson: If your league is particularly deep, don’t be afraid of the best platoon bats. You’ll get more out of Matt Joyce than Denard Span

3:39
HappyFunBall: I feel like this is the year to trade away Kershaw go in a keep forever (as draft picks) league. Before the bad back and 140 innings bumps him permanently down to #2 status. Thoughts?

3:40
Brad Johnson: As they say, it’s better to sell a year too early than a year too late. There’s a reason why I sold him instead of Trout or Goldy in FG Staff Two. Then again, I immediately acquired him when I joined Dave Cameron’s Screw Cancer league.

3:40
Brad Johnson: Elite pitchers are always super high risk/reward

3:41
Daniel Castro: How many home runs could I smang if the Rockies finally give me an everyday job?

3:41
Brad Johnson: Why? Where?

3:41
Brad Johnson: 5?

3:41
Brad Johnson: 2?

3:42
Brad Johnson: He doesn’t hit for any power. Are you sure you mean to ask about Daniel Castro?

3:42
Micah: Noticed that ridiculous 22-player trade the other day in the Devil’s Rejects league. Maybe you can help me understand it a little bit. Even if you’re happy with the return, what is the logic behind making such a massive swap? Also, why would that one player deal away Buehler, Tatis and others in what was clearly a very lopsided deal?

3:42
Brad Johnson: Hahahaha

3:42
Brad Johnson: I cannot help you to understand this

3:42
Brad Johnson: The guy who clearly won the deal still doesn’t have a complete roster, otherwise I would have thrown the biggest tantrum

3:43
Brad Johnson: Worst trade I’ve ever seen. Lemme find a link to it for the rest of you

3:43
Brad Johnson: Here we go –

There was a 22 player trade in The Devil’s Rejects league today #TDR.
18 Dec 2017
3:44
Brad Johnson: One owner gave up the best MLB players AND the best MiLB players in the same swap. We have a 28 keeper cap so the extra volume just pushes similar players into the draft.

3:45
Brad Johnson: I try not to criticize my leaguemates on FanGraphs because I’ve ruined a couple relationships that way in the past. However, I think is a reap what you sow kind of scenario.

3:45
Joe: Dylan Bundy a sneaky bet for top 30 SP?

3:45
Brad Johnson: Not sneaky so much as a decent long shot gamble

3:46
Brad Johnson: Does feel like there is more upside in the tank. I doubt he gets there as an Oriole

3:46
Brad Johnson: Their pitchers are cursed

3:46
Matt: Is it just that I’m now in the 8th year of my Dynasty league (and so valuations have reached extremes) or is every bit of talent pretty top heavy relative to a few years ago?

3:47
Brad Johnson: I’m not sure what you’re asking but it has the bones of an interesting question. Please rephrase.

3:47
KW: What kind of return could the Royals expect for Scott Alexander.

3:47
Brad Johnson: A couple solid prospects. Makes more sense to trade Herrera and put Alexander into a more prominent setup/closer role. Then trade him at the deadline.

3:47
Matt: Thoughts on Luiz Gohara for 2018? Beyond?

3:48
Brad Johnson: Everyone seems to love him. I get why. I don’t have any unique insights. Projections look useful. Downside is bigger than people seem to expect

3:48
One last question: Brad.  Thanks again for your chat.  Mitch Haniger had a lot of hype last year, do you consider a bounceback candidate?

3:48
Brad Johnson: Not even a bounce back really. He played well when healthy

3:48
Pickle Rick: Sell low on Miggy in a league that keeps 240? In a position to contend this year.

3:49
Brad Johnson: I’d sell, just not too low. There’s a point where it’s better to hope for a dead cat bounce.

3:50
Brad Johnson: Years ago, I had a failing Prince Fielder. He BABIPd his way into becoming Kendrys, David Robertson, and (Freddy Galvis)

3:50
Brad Johnson: So if you’re getting terrible offers, just hang onto him and hope something happens

3:51
Brad: In 12 roto standard 5×5, weekly league, how do you generally compose your pitching staff.

3:51
Brad Johnson: Assuming I have a big bench, I aim for 4 closers and 8 SP. Then I play SP based on matchups and 2-start week and backfill however many CL I need

3:51
The old professor: I can keep

3:51
The old professor: keep

3:51
The old professor: Keep forever H2H dynasty league. Can keep

3:51
The old professor: StandardH2H dynasty league, can keep 7 forever.. which 2 get cut? Sano, Buxton, Dee Gordon, Willie Calhoun, Nola, Paxton, Kenley Jansen, Wilson Contreras, Nomar Mazara

3:52
Brad Johnson: Got there 🙂

3:52
Brad Johnson: That is a very difficult list

3:52
Brad Johnson: Jansen and Gordon may have the least long term value. But they’re very valuable in the short term.

3:53
Brad Johnson: Sadly, I think Mazara is on the chopping block. I probably let Calhoun go too. The exception is if your team won’t contend in 2018

3:54
Acuna Matata: Why do you think so few innings from Buehler?

3:54
Brad Johnson: It’s just how prospects are used, especially by the over-deep Dodgers

3:54
Skip: Paxton, Devers, and J.Bradley for Severino and Keuchel. Which side do you like?

3:54
Brad Johnson: No preference. Unless it’s a deep dynasty in which case Devers is the best asset in the swap

3:54
Gary Sanchez: Does Abreu and Chad Green for J Turner and L Weaver sound good?

3:55
Brad Johnson: Smells fine to me

3:55
Brad Johnson: Prefer the Turner side, modestly

3:55
Matt: if salaries and contracts are similar, do you think Lo Cain for Quintana is a decent starter, or way off?

3:55
Brad Johnson: Can try it. Prefer Quintana, all else equal.

3:55
Andy: Thanks for chatting Brad.  Pick one as a MI keeper for the next 3 years – Brendan Rodgers, Adames, G. Torres

3:55
Brad Johnson: Rodgers then Torres

3:56
Brad Johnson: Both are similarly strong prospects

3:56
Brad Johnson: Adames isn’t the same class

3:56
Skip: If Gausman were to be traded to STL I would draft him much higher.

3:56
Brad Johnson: True

3:56
Francisco: Hey man, so…I’m jones’ing for either Acuña or Torres in my 10-team, 5×5 (OBP, otherwise standard). It’s keep 7 forever, so I think I’ve got enough on my bench to make a move…would sending a guy like Miggy be enough? Not enough? Trade picks?

3:56
Brad Johnson: Neither of them are presently top 70 keepers in that format.

3:56
Brad Johnson: Nor is Miggy

3:57
Brad Johnson: I mean, you can try sending him just to see what happens

3:57
Brad Johnson: But you should be able to do better

3:57
Skip: Do you avoid answering questions on certain players because you want them to stay sleepers?

3:57
Brad Johnson: Nah, I’ve answered just about everything that’s been asked since the start of the this chat. All the extra questions are in the pre-chat queue

3:58
Brad Johnson: I doubt enough people are reading this chat to ruin any sleepers I’d want

3:58
Brad Johnson: And I’m still in a pre-sleeper portion of the offseason. Need robust ADP before I know who is actually a sleeper

3:59
Brad Johnson: I’ve done this game for too long. You think a guy is going to be cheap and then he’s going in the 4th round.

3:59
Stubby Clapp: Why is Kyle Schwarber relevant to anything?

3:59
Brad Johnson: 50 HR potential

4:00
Matt: Regarding the extremes. I feel like every time I do my research, there are like 5 guys that are just in a different world. But then the #5-25 guys are all pretty standard, and after that, its just a crap shoot. But my view may be distorted because I’m in a dynasty league and am thus ignoring many players I wouldn’t because they’re owned at good contracts and essentially untradable.

4:00
Brad Johnson: That’s pretty standard. However, there are more hyper-elite players in the league than in past seasons. Hasn’t been like this since the peak of the steroid era.

4:00
Slamboni: I need a 1B in my 14 team points league. I can sign one of: Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds or Albert Pujols or get Matt Olson in our MiLB draft instead of a prospect. Thoughts?

4:01
Brad Johnson: I’d avoid Pujols, I think he’s on the way out. Davis seems due for a rebound. Olson is my preferred target of the 4

4:01
Brad: follow up on how you compose your rotation, it is 3 bench spots.

4:01
Brad Johnson: That’s rough…

4:01
Brad Johnson: Stream 2-starters then and focus the bench on hitters

4:01
NtflxnRichHill : Why is Cesar Hernandez so overlooked?

4:02
Brad Johnson: You’re baiting me, aren’t you

4:02
Brad Johnson: I love Cesar Hernandez. He’s an OBP beast. Lack of power and middling SB totals hurt his 5×5 value. Great in FGpts though.

4:02
Shuck Bowalter: Just out of curiosity, how many people read your chats?

4:03
Brad Johnson: In-season, I usually have 300-400 readers while I’m chatting (no idea how many read the transcript). Right now, we have 94.

4:03
Shuck Bowalter: I took over an Otto FGPTS league which has both a $31 Cano and a $10 Moncada. For whatever reason I’ve never bought the Moncada hype. Am I crazy to move Moncada for a ton of value that I can plug in elsewhere?

4:03
Brad Johnson: Go for it. Completely reasonable to hope a healthy Cano returns good value. Especially if you’re locking in a stud with Moncada. Not convinced he’s good for that format.

4:03
Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Matt chapman or Evan Longoria? OPS league.

4:04
Brad Johnson: Uh, let’s see where Longoria ends up. Kinda leaning push

4:04
Francisco: So, maybe I don’t bother with trying to acquire Acuña, Torres, and dump Miggy to keep a fringe ace? What about a guy like Ray, Paxton, or McCullers?

4:04
Brad Johnson: Ray should be kept

4:04
Brad Johnson: 100%

4:04
Brad Johnson: He’s a top 10 pitcher

4:05
Brad Johnson: Paxton has that ability too, but his injury history makes him an iffy keep

4:05
Brad Johnson: Better to draft him

4:05
Brad Johnson: If you haven’t noticed, I’m not a huge fan of McCullers as a fantasy asset

4:06
Brad Johnson: his plus ratios hide bad W/QS totals

4:06
Vlad Jr: What do you think the chances of seeing me in the majors are next season?

4:06
Brad Johnson: 5%

4:06
NtflxnRichHill : In a standard 5 x 5 roto, 12 team league, I used to target 2200 R+RBI, 300 HR, 200 SB, .265…but the last couple years I feel like it’s more like 2400 R+RBI, 380 HR, 150 SB, .270. A lot more goes into my draft prep – SPG, ADP eval, but ultimately these are numbers I’m trying to surpass…do you have any goals going into the year? Just from a pure numbers point of view?

4:07
Brad Johnson: I aim for 350 HR. The rest tends to work itself out.

4:07
Brad Johnson: Had a chat with Jeff Z about this because he focuses on AVG and finds the rest fall into place

4:08
Brad Johnson: I think it’s a matter of your personal preferences as to which categories you try to maximize in the draft. Since I’m a sucker for 5 cat guys, I find the if I fall short on HR, I also fall short everywhere else.

4:08
tonyc: Travis just posted a piece about the Phillies signing Carlos Santana, buying into the idea that it creates a crowd in the outfield.  Has nobody looked at Nick Williams’ plate discipline stats from last season?  When BABIP hits him he’s going to barely be startable as a platoon bat.

4:08
Brad Johnson: Look at his SwStr% in particular. He IS Javier Baez.

4:09
Brad Johnson: Except he’s an outfielder with maybe minus defense

4:09
Philly Fan: What do you think Philly will do with their newly crowded outfield?

4:09
Brad Johnson: They’ll swap Williams and stuff for a pitcher

4:09
NtflxnRichHill : I can’t imagine targeting AVG…but 6 ways to 1 half dozen to the other or however that goes

4:10
Brad Johnson: I know right. Jeff is a strict spreadsheet user. He’ll take Ian Desmond in the top 10 rounds because his projections tell him it’s a value. I fly by the seat of my pants and focus on ADP.

4:10
Brad: re:  streaming pitchers.  I noticed last year that streaming pitchers in my 13 team roto league was more hurtful than helpful.  Did you find that also?  If so, do you see it being a problem in ’18?  Thanks.

4:11
Brad Johnson: Well… it sounds like you didn’t stream and keep Godley, Wood, Nelson, and Morton

4:11
Brad Johnson: Streaming is always going to hurt your stats. You use it because you 1. need the volume and 2. it’s the best chance to find these breakouts

4:12
Brad Johnson: So yea, your streamers in ’18 will hurt. The goal is to balance those out by hanging onto a godley when he wanders onto your roster

4:12
Daniel Castro: If I steal all the talent of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, and Clayton Kershaw Monstars-style, how many WAR would I be worth per season? Asking for a friend

4:13
Brad Johnson: Sounds like about 16 WAR, assuming you can hit and pitch without needing rest

4:13
Shuck Bowalter: Mejia a fantasy asset this year?

4:13
Brad Johnson: Francisco?

4:13
Brad Johnson: I don’t think Jenrry is coming back

4:14
Brad Johnson: To answer your question, probably at some point. Not early in the season

4:14
Brad Johnson: Can plan to get him later unless you have an NA slot to stash him

4:14
Magic 8 Ball: Dynasty keep 25 league: can keep only one of Bradley Zimmer, Julio Urias or Danny Salazar. Who?

4:15
Brad Johnson: I have Zimmer and Salazar in my keep 28. Have Zim ranked higher.

4:15
Randy: Hello Brad

4:15
Brad Johnson: Hello Randy

4:15
Brad Johnson: I think this is a good place to wrap it up.

4:15
Brad Johnson: Paul and I may do a joint chat on Friday. See ya then or sometime in the future.

4:16
Brad Johnson: Oh, my article for tomorrow is weird. Go read it.

We hoped you liked reading Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 12/19/2017 by Brad Johnson!

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