Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 12/19/2017

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, let’s get started once I spam twitter a little

Bobopedia: for the next 4 years, Brian Dozier or Yoan Moncada? Competitive window is ajar this year, but the following three years will have a more open window

Brad Johnson: Ooh, I’m a sucker for present value, but Dozier isn’t likely to be productive 3 or 4 years from now

Brad Johnson: Moncada could look something like Dozier as soon as 2018. I’d bet on Moncada to be better by 2020.

Brad Johnson: Given that you don’t seem too keen about 2018, I’d lean Moncada

kolten wong: Should I be worried about max schrock?

Brad Johnson: Worry about yourself

Brad Johnson: You’re basically Jon Jay with 2B eligibility

Brad Johnson: The scouting reports on Schrock aren’t very enthusiastic so I wouldn’t go out of my way to acquire him

Brad Johnson: Might just be one of those guys who does well in the minors but is overmatched in the majors. No carrying tools if he’s not making elite contact.

Snake the Jake: Would you trade 5 years of Gary Sanchez for 6 years of Chance Sisco and Brent Honeywell? Or Gary for 4 years of Nola?

Snake the Jake: Or neither?

Brad Johnson: Super neither

Brad Johnson: Those offers are terrible

Brad Johnson: Unless it’s like a 0.25 catcher league

Pie: In my Ottoneu leauge, there’s a few teams that have around $200 they need to shed going into the draft. What’s the best way to bring up a trade in this situation? I don’t want to give up good, young talent for guys that I can just get in the draft when they are cut, but any bid that I think compensates the other teams fairly are viewed as lowball offers and immediately rejected.

Brad Johnson: You probably need to wait until there’s a little pressure on them to make a swap. Most likely, they’ll try to cut down to budget with one big move – i.e. getting $7 Andrus for $69 Kershaw

Brad Johnson: (that’s what I did)

Dave: Whathca think about trading a $34 Rizzo and $6 Pham for $16 Lindor?

Brad Johnson: Overpay, but not atrocious.

Pittsburgh Ryan: Hey Brad, your thoughts on David Dahl in 2018? Oh and Ottoneu 12 team 5×5 – $55 Betts for $29 Braun and $12 Dahl. Take the two for one or pass since Dahl is a question mark

Brad Johnson: I get asked about Dahl every week. I don’t have any insights besides that he should be nearly free in most formats (including ottoneu). He’s like a $3 player there until he proves otherwise.

Brad Johnson: Betts for days in this situation.

Dylan: Looking to join an Ottoneu league for the first time. Can you give me any tips on what the process is? Should I join a league now or wait until February?

Brad Johnson: I’d recommend a fresh league if you can find one. Just be ready for a very long draft. Could always do a fresh league and an existing one though.

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Do you know of any English sites that does fantasy for NPB?

Brad Johnson: Nope

Brad Johnson: Cool idea though

resumeman: I noticed that the park factors on the Guts! page haven’t been updated since the 2015 season. Are there any plans to bring them up to date?

Brad Johnson: That’s funny, I complained about that internally earlier today

Brad Johnson: Probably

Slapshot: I have a bit of an ottoneu keeper issue with the Carlos Santana ($15) signing in Philadelphia, as I have both Altherr ($7) and Nick Williams ($4) on my roster.  How do you see that roster logjam playing out, and should I look to trade or cut any of those guys at those prices as a result?

Brad Johnson: Can probably just wait for it to solve itself via injury or trade

Brad Johnson: Seems likely that one of Altherr or Williams will be traded for a pitcher

Brad Johnson: And if not, somebody will land on the DL

Brad Johnson: I may return to the backlog later, let’s fast forward to the present

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: “The scouting reports on Schrock aren’t very enthusiastic“ Carson is going to get you fired for that comment.

Brad Johnson: Carson specifically writes about players whose scouting reports aren’t very enthusiastic

Nelson: Whats better: 25$ Yu, 34$ Kluber (otto prices)

Brad Johnson: Gimme Kluber

Nelson: Jake Lamb more of the same – .250 -30HRs? Is that about the same as Sano, or Sano get to 35?

Brad Johnson: Projections might look similar but Sano could go wild. I suppose Lamb could also find another gear. Sano still has that superstar upside though

Guest: Hi Brad, Following up from a question last week regarding FAABs in my 13 team salary cap league.  How many pick ups is fair when we have with a 15 man bench and should dropping a player be needed? Also should they be a set cost like $5 or cost what you bid on them for? Thanks a bunch.

Brad Johnson: If you have a FAAB, you don’t need a cap or a minimum bid

greg bird: 2016 and 2017 I’m getting the same prospect hype.  Are you believing in me?

Brad Johnson: I go back and forth on this. I think it’s a lot easier to see the downside, but the potential remains attractive. The issue may be that you could get the same from Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso for a tiny fraction of the price.

fister colon: boring question i know but: given equal cost (26th round draft pick, 5 rnd inflation each year), who are your top 3 keepers? bellinger, hoskins, f freeman, buxton, smoak, gallo. thanks brad

Brad Johnson: Freeman for sure

Brad Johnson: Probably Buxton and Hoskins for the other two. Bellinger is obviously hard to pass though.

Brad Johnson: I guess decide who is more likely to regress – Bellinger or Hoskins. I happen to think Bellinger is the likelier to fall (seemed like he was solved in the postseason).

Joe Musgrove : Do the Astros let me start again?

Brad Johnson: Swingman

Brad Johnson: You’ll get 10 or so starts next season. Musgrove was so good in relief though

tonyc: Villar went well into the 200s in the early industry mocks.  As far as I can tell he’s got a good shot to hold onto the starting job.  Buying opportunity?

Brad Johnson: Definitely a great buy at that price. I think he’ll climb the boards to the 150 range

A Random Dude: I’m currently only doing Yahoo keep-forever dynasty leagues (1 ESPN re-draft for monies). Started one last season with 14 teams and farm system via spreadsheet that I run. Looking to shed most of the lighter leagues; what kind of league(s) should I look at getting into, and how difficult would it be to get into them? Also, thoughts on Odor over the next like 5 years?

Brad Johnson: Finding a good dynasty league is a real challenge. I find ottoneu to be the most accessible dynasty-like experience.

Brad Johnson: Not just because we’re affiliated. It’s so challenging to find a dynasty league that isn’t rigged and therefore doomed to fold when the schmucks stop paying to stay

Brad Johnson: As for Odor, I’ve been warning people off him for years. His profile is so extreme. He’s basically a better Danny Espinosa. The price is probably right this year, assuming Willie Calhoun doesn’t somehow push him aside. I don’t think that’s a big risk.

Matt: Where you placing Kinsler next year? That lineup going to allow him to be a top 12 2B, or is he going to be more in the 10-20 range?

Brad Johnson: He’s leaving a very favorable hitting environment. I would not count on improved stats.

Brad Johnson: Detroit is tough on home runs and very friendly for everything else. And Kinsler is mostly an everything else hitter these days

Brad Johnson: Angels Stadium is tough on everything

Brad Johnson: I’m not convinced he’ll hang onto a top-of-the-order role

Charles Scott: Hey, Brad, thanks for chatting.

Brad Johnson: You’re welcome

Charles Scott: Hey Brad, thanks for chatting.  Do you like Luis Castillo or Luke Weaver more next year?

Brad Johnson: Leaning Castillo, but they’re the same asset class. I do like that Weaver has Busch for a home park. GABP is a nightmare.

Matt: Will Conforto ever play again?

Brad Johnson: Of course

Brad Johnson: He might be disappointing this year though. Don’t forget this when trying to acquire him

Slamboni: PSA/Question: I am looking for a good Ottoneu league, but the posts on the page seem to be outdated/abandoned, how can I find a good league to join?!

Brad Johnson: I recommend getting set up with the ottoneu slack community. Trey Baughn and Justin Vibber know the way in.

Matt: Gimmie your thoughts on Shark. Does his consistency give him top 30 SP value? SP is so top heavy, I wonder – Is there really a difference between the 20th best SP and the 40th?

Brad Johnson: Shark is absolutely a top 30 SP. He’s probably a top 20 SP. Very few pitchers share his combination of stuff, durability, and deep starts. He can pull an Ervin Santana at the very least

Frankie Fourseams: Thoughts on McCullers this year? Ace upside if healthy?

Brad Johnson: Not exactly. He’ll pitch like an ace for the 5.1 innings he’s in the game. He’ll never be more than a long reliever who happens to pitch the first inning

Brad Johnson: An ace gives you 7 or more innings in half or more of his starts

Brad Johnson: You need that volume to reliably accumulate wins or QS

Brad Johnson: McCullers can’t give you those with any reliability

Matt: I just ran a version of SGP I created (that looks at value above average, instead of overall), and LoCain comes in at like $250 overall based on Depth Charts. What gives, yo?

Brad Johnson: Sounds like you mathfailed

Colonel Angus: Who are your Top 3 favorite buy-low candidates in 2018?

Brad Johnson: To be honest, we’re still in pre-ADP so it’s hard to really buy low with any accuracy

Brad Johnson: like Odor should be a buy low guy, but I won’t be surprised to see him going above his projection

Brad Johnson: Villar does seem like a kick-you-in-the-face value

Brad Johnson: I think Jerad Eickhoff could win 15 games if healthy with perfectly fine ratios

Brad Johnson: Bet he’ll cost a buck at most

Michael A Taylor: I see a 20/20 year out of him.  I don’t see a lot of hype around his potential.  He looks good in NLDS

Brad Johnson: I think we’re holding our breath while waiting to see what the Nats do. I still think they’ll sign JDM, pushing Taylor into a 4th OFer role

Brad Johnson: He’s also the obvious odd man out for Victor Robles

Bobopedia: Brian Dozier is entering his age 31 season. Is it just normal attrition that has you worry about his value 3-4 years from now, or is there something in his profile you don’t like?

Brad Johnson: It’s a mix of attrition and profile. I think he’s going to turn into a faster Todd Frazier very soon.

Matt Olson: What are my chances of hitting 35+ HR and having a .850+ OPS next year?

Brad Johnson: Low. 15%?

mike: Alex reyes or walker buehler

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Reyes, especially if we’re talking about 2018. Doubt we see more than 20 IP from Buehler.

Brad Johnson: Of course, I’d love to see Reyes pitch from a mound and hit upper-90s before committing

Not a Phillies Fan: Zack Godley or Charlie Morton in 2018?

Brad Johnson: Gimme Godley. Love Morton too though.

Brad Johnson: Morton is a good veteran like Rich Hill. I think Godley has an ace inside him

Brad Johnson: Had one of the highest ground ball rates for a starter with 13.3% SwStr, 9.59 K/9, and 3.08 Bb/9

Brad Johnson: As far as I can tell, the DBacks have quietly installed their humidor and it’ll be in use next year. Which should mitigate the league’s fastest infield. I’m betting on a 3.10 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to go with similar K rates.

Q: Would Quintana be worth $22 in a 13 teamer?  I have very limited funds due to buyouts.

Brad Johnson: In a vacuum, yes. Sometimes you’re forced to cut a keepable player. Better a pitcher than a similarly valued hitter.

Twinsfan: Who was the 25th player on the 1987 World Series winning Twins team.  Cannot find this answer anywhere.  Also how do you like the Twins next year.

Brad Johnson: I was born in 1987. I do not know. I do like the Twins, assuming they make a few additions to the pitching staff.

SSS: Buxton over Bellinger? Is that based off the strength of his finish? Because he finished 2016 great too, and then the first 4 months of 2017 happened.

Brad Johnson: Buxton’s a tough cookie to crack.

Brad Johnson: Or is he a tough cracker to cook?

Brad Johnson: I don’t know

Brad Johnson: I like the 20/40 potential he flashed. That’s sneaky valuable even if the rest of the profile scuffles

Brad Johnson: He’s one of the best base runners in the league and his elite defense ensures he’ll remain in the lineup through his slumps

Brad Johnson: He’s basically Keon Broxton with huge upside and safe playing time

Brad Johnson: And more SB

Matt: Re LoCain and my failed SGP – I meant #250…does your response change now that he’s at the bottom instead of the top?

Brad Johnson: Haha! That’s very different

Brad Johnson: That still smells wrong to me based on the 74/15/69/16/.288 projection

Brad Johnson: That’s a top 100 player

Brad Johnson: Maybe your method is hammering him for 595 PA. How are you treating replacement PA?

Not a Phillies Fan: Hey Brad, thanks for chatting. Love your insight on both short and long term fantasy baseball. How are you feeling about Gregory Polanco? Can he still be a 25/20 guy with health?

Brad Johnson: I think that’s overshooting things just a tad, but I do expect a big rebound once he’s healthy. That may not be early 2018.

A Random Dude: How worthwhile is it to flip high profile prospects for now assets? I managed to trade for Moncada in 2016, then flipped him and co. (my draft pick he took ended up being Hoskins) for Goldy and Fulmer. Should I consider doing the same with Acuna, Brendan Rodgers, and Rosario? Leaning towards doing this, but keeping Acuna.

Brad Johnson: I’d also lean towards keeping Acuna. He went for Goldy+Kluber in my 20 team dynasty league. Ask for similar

Brad Johnson: If someone meets that price, cool.

Brad Johnson: If not, convert the not hyper-elite names to MLB talent first

Brad Johnson: ultimately, it’s a matter of what you need. Fill needs, then find proven long term assets, then build up unproven longer term assets

SP Keeper League: I have Nola, Berrios, Jon Gray and Luis Castillo.   How do you rank these guys?

Brad Johnson: Nola then the other three are same asset class

Brad Johnson: Gray is technically best but Coors hurts enough to bump him down a tier or two

Scott: Where do you rank Chase Anderson and Zack Godley among SPs?

Brad Johnson: I don’t have rankings and I’m planning something completely different this year. Purely using ADP (once it’s reliable) plus projected team performance. Picking the best players early then filling category needs.

Brad Johnson: I’ll write about it in more detail at some point. I don’t recommend it unless you have everybody’s projections internalized.

Matt: Godley has an ace inside him? That’s an interesting way to cheat at poker.

Brad Johnson: Ace of Snakes

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: what are we doing with Verdugo? is Toles going to get in the way?

Brad Johnson: The Dodgers have embarrassing depth. Still. Something will shake loose. Personally, Verdugo + Kemp to the Phillies smells reasonable to me. Then Kemp+all the cash to the Rays for an extra tidbit. Or maybe Verdugo, Kemp, cash, and Kingery for Archer?

Brad Johnson: I’m getting ahead of myself.

Brad Johnson: The Dodgers aren’t actually going to be under the lux cap unless they get someone to eat Kemp though.

Frankie Fourseams: Ok. Thanks for the answer on McCullers. Is there a better target for “ace upside that hasn’t quite clicked yet” in that similar price/ranking range?

Brad Johnson: Godley

Joe: Sano at $29 or Gallo at $6 in a points league?

Brad Johnson: Gallo is too similar to justify the discrepancy

Waldo: Kopech or Walker Buehler in 2018 and beyond?

Brad Johnson: Kopech? These are all dart throws. Think about all the recent top pitching prospects.

Brad Johnson: That’s Thor, Severino, Fulmer, Berrios, Glasnow, Giolito, Reyes, and Urias

Brad Johnson: How many of them are actually established pitchers?

Brad Johnson: Which of them hasn’t either spent a season injured or completely disappointed in performance?

Brad Johnson: The first question is around 3.5 of 7. The second is 0 of 7.

Matt: Does JP Crawford fall in the “better real prospect than fantasy prospect” category?

Brad Johnson: Yessir

Brad Johnson: He could go Lindor though. The MiLB profiles were very similar. JPC has better plate discipline.

Brad Johnson: That said, Lindor going Lindor was a low percentage outcome. He was supposed to be more like Simmons.

Not a Phillies Fan: Hey Brad, any love for Kevin Gausman after his 2nd half last year? Another tease from him or has he legit turned a corner?

Brad Johnson: I dunno man

Brad Johnson: That man is a damned tub of rolaids

Brad Johnson: I’m glad I never quite get shares of him

Brad Johnson: I’d plan to sit out the draft unless he’s super cheap. Then just pick him up midseason when he has a 6.50 ERA. That’s what I keep doing. It works.

Nelson: do you like or stay away from Joey Gallo. I love him, but his avg is a huge anchor

Brad Johnson: Both. I try to avoid building around players that actively torpedo categories. If we’re talking a late pick, that’s one thing. If we looking top 100 or so, I prefer well-rounded production

Charles Scott: Do you think Madison Bumgarner bounces back to approach the Big 4, or is he more risk than reward?

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll bounce back. But a fully resurgent Bumgarner probably isn’t actually a top 4 pitcher. He went that high in past drafts because he was super healthy, not because his projected ratios justified it.

Nick Castellanos: Does his rebuilding Tigers team hurt value this year?

Brad Johnson: He doesn’t need any help hurting his value. He’s a very unimpressive player.

Matt: Brad – you have great advice for daily add/transaction leagues.  Do you have any tenets you live by in weekly add/weekly lineup leagues?

Brad Johnson: Well, ideally, you want to prioritize hitters with an every day role. Pay attention to platoon guys with bad projected matchups. Look for two-start pitchers. Often a Trevor Williams two-start off the waiver wire is more valuable than a lone McCullers outing (or similar).

Brad Johnson: If your league is particularly deep, don’t be afraid of the best platoon bats. You’ll get more out of Matt Joyce than Denard Span

HappyFunBall: I feel like this is the year to trade away Kershaw go in a keep forever (as draft picks) league. Before the bad back and 140 innings bumps him permanently down to #2 status. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: As they say, it’s better to sell a year too early than a year too late. There’s a reason why I sold him instead of Trout or Goldy in FG Staff Two. Then again, I immediately acquired him when I joined Dave Cameron’s Screw Cancer league.

Brad Johnson: Elite pitchers are always super high risk/reward

Daniel Castro: How many home runs could I smang if the Rockies finally give me an everyday job?

Brad Johnson: Why? Where?

Brad Johnson: 5?

Brad Johnson: 2?

Brad Johnson: He doesn’t hit for any power. Are you sure you mean to ask about Daniel Castro?

Micah: Noticed that ridiculous 22-player trade the other day in the Devil’s Rejects league. Maybe you can help me understand it a little bit. Even if you’re happy with the return, what is the logic behind making such a massive swap? Also, why would that one player deal away Buehler, Tatis and others in what was clearly a very lopsided deal?

Brad Johnson: Hahahaha

Brad Johnson: I cannot help you to understand this

Brad Johnson: The guy who clearly won the deal still doesn’t have a complete roster, otherwise I would have thrown the biggest tantrum

Brad Johnson: Worst trade I’ve ever seen. Lemme find a link to it for the rest of you

Brad Johnson: Here we go –

Brad Johnson: One owner gave up the best MLB players AND the best MiLB players in the same swap. We have a 28 keeper cap so the extra volume just pushes similar players into the draft.

Brad Johnson: I try not to criticize my leaguemates on FanGraphs because I’ve ruined a couple relationships that way in the past. However, I think is a reap what you sow kind of scenario.

Joe: Dylan Bundy a sneaky bet for top 30 SP?

Brad Johnson: Not sneaky so much as a decent long shot gamble

Brad Johnson: Does feel like there is more upside in the tank. I doubt he gets there as an Oriole

Brad Johnson: Their pitchers are cursed

Matt: Is it just that I’m now in the 8th year of my Dynasty league (and so valuations have reached extremes) or is every bit of talent pretty top heavy relative to a few years ago?

Brad Johnson: I’m not sure what you’re asking but it has the bones of an interesting question. Please rephrase.

KW: What kind of return could the Royals expect for Scott Alexander.

Brad Johnson: A couple solid prospects. Makes more sense to trade Herrera and put Alexander into a more prominent setup/closer role. Then trade him at the deadline.

Matt: Thoughts on Luiz Gohara for 2018? Beyond?

Brad Johnson: Everyone seems to love him. I get why. I don’t have any unique insights. Projections look useful. Downside is bigger than people seem to expect

One last question: Brad.  Thanks again for your chat.  Mitch Haniger had a lot of hype last year, do you consider a bounceback candidate?

Brad Johnson: Not even a bounce back really. He played well when healthy

Pickle Rick: Sell low on Miggy in a league that keeps 240? In a position to contend this year.

Brad Johnson: I’d sell, just not too low. There’s a point where it’s better to hope for a dead cat bounce.

Brad Johnson: Years ago, I had a failing Prince Fielder. He BABIPd his way into becoming Kendrys, David Robertson, and (Freddy Galvis)

Brad Johnson: So if you’re getting terrible offers, just hang onto him and hope something happens

Brad: In 12 roto standard 5×5, weekly league, how do you generally compose your pitching staff.

Brad Johnson: Assuming I have a big bench, I aim for 4 closers and 8 SP. Then I play SP based on matchups and 2-start week and backfill however many CL I need

The old professor: I can keep

The old professor: keep

The old professor: Keep forever H2H dynasty league. Can keep

The old professor: StandardH2H dynasty league, can keep 7 forever.. which 2 get cut? Sano, Buxton, Dee Gordon, Willie Calhoun, Nola, Paxton, Kenley Jansen, Wilson Contreras, Nomar Mazara

Brad Johnson: Got there 🙂

Brad Johnson: That is a very difficult list

Brad Johnson: Jansen and Gordon may have the least long term value. But they’re very valuable in the short term.

Brad Johnson: Sadly, I think Mazara is on the chopping block. I probably let Calhoun go too. The exception is if your team won’t contend in 2018

Acuna Matata: Why do you think so few innings from Buehler?

Brad Johnson: It’s just how prospects are used, especially by the over-deep Dodgers

Skip: Paxton, Devers, and J.Bradley for Severino and Keuchel. Which side do you like?

Brad Johnson: No preference. Unless it’s a deep dynasty in which case Devers is the best asset in the swap

Gary Sanchez: Does Abreu and Chad Green for J Turner and L Weaver sound good?

Brad Johnson: Smells fine to me

Brad Johnson: Prefer the Turner side, modestly

Matt: if salaries and contracts are similar, do you think Lo Cain for Quintana is a decent starter, or way off?

Brad Johnson: Can try it. Prefer Quintana, all else equal.

Andy: Thanks for chatting Brad.  Pick one as a MI keeper for the next 3 years – Brendan Rodgers, Adames, G. Torres

Brad Johnson: Rodgers then Torres

Brad Johnson: Both are similarly strong prospects

Brad Johnson: Adames isn’t the same class

Skip: If Gausman were to be traded to STL I would draft him much higher.

Brad Johnson: True

Francisco: Hey man, so…I’m jones’ing for either Acuña or Torres in my 10-team, 5×5 (OBP, otherwise standard). It’s keep 7 forever, so I think I’ve got enough on my bench to make a move…would sending a guy like Miggy be enough? Not enough? Trade picks?

Brad Johnson: Neither of them are presently top 70 keepers in that format.

Brad Johnson: Nor is Miggy

Brad Johnson: I mean, you can try sending him just to see what happens

Brad Johnson: But you should be able to do better

Skip: Do you avoid answering questions on certain players because you want them to stay sleepers?

Brad Johnson: Nah, I’ve answered just about everything that’s been asked since the start of the this chat. All the extra questions are in the pre-chat queue

Brad Johnson: I doubt enough people are reading this chat to ruin any sleepers I’d want

Brad Johnson: And I’m still in a pre-sleeper portion of the offseason. Need robust ADP before I know who is actually a sleeper

Brad Johnson: I’ve done this game for too long. You think a guy is going to be cheap and then he’s going in the 4th round.

Stubby Clapp: Why is Kyle Schwarber relevant to anything?

Brad Johnson: 50 HR potential

Matt: Regarding the extremes. I feel like every time I do my research, there are like 5 guys that are just in a different world. But then the #5-25 guys are all pretty standard, and after that, its just a crap shoot. But my view may be distorted because I’m in a dynasty league and am thus ignoring many players I wouldn’t because they’re owned at good contracts and essentially untradable.

Brad Johnson: That’s pretty standard. However, there are more hyper-elite players in the league than in past seasons. Hasn’t been like this since the peak of the steroid era.

Slamboni: I need a 1B in my 14 team points league. I can sign one of: Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds or Albert Pujols or get Matt Olson in our MiLB draft instead of a prospect. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: I’d avoid Pujols, I think he’s on the way out. Davis seems due for a rebound. Olson is my preferred target of the 4

Brad: follow up on how you compose your rotation, it is 3 bench spots.

Brad Johnson: That’s rough…

Brad Johnson: Stream 2-starters then and focus the bench on hitters

NtflxnRichHill : Why is Cesar Hernandez so overlooked?

Brad Johnson: You’re baiting me, aren’t you

Brad Johnson: I love Cesar Hernandez. He’s an OBP beast. Lack of power and middling SB totals hurt his 5×5 value. Great in FGpts though.

Shuck Bowalter: Just out of curiosity, how many people read your chats?

Brad Johnson: In-season, I usually have 300-400 readers while I’m chatting (no idea how many read the transcript). Right now, we have 94.

Shuck Bowalter: I took over an Otto FGPTS league which has both a $31 Cano and a $10 Moncada. For whatever reason I’ve never bought the Moncada hype. Am I crazy to move Moncada for a ton of value that I can plug in elsewhere?

Brad Johnson: Go for it. Completely reasonable to hope a healthy Cano returns good value. Especially if you’re locking in a stud with Moncada. Not convinced he’s good for that format.

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Matt chapman or Evan Longoria? OPS league.

Brad Johnson: Uh, let’s see where Longoria ends up. Kinda leaning push

Francisco: So, maybe I don’t bother with trying to acquire Acuña, Torres, and dump Miggy to keep a fringe ace? What about a guy like Ray, Paxton, or McCullers?

Brad Johnson: Ray should be kept

Brad Johnson: 100%

Brad Johnson: He’s a top 10 pitcher

Brad Johnson: Paxton has that ability too, but his injury history makes him an iffy keep

Brad Johnson: Better to draft him

Brad Johnson: If you haven’t noticed, I’m not a huge fan of McCullers as a fantasy asset

Brad Johnson: his plus ratios hide bad W/QS totals

Vlad Jr: What do you think the chances of seeing me in the majors are next season?

Brad Johnson: 5%

NtflxnRichHill : In a standard 5 x 5 roto, 12 team league, I used to target 2200 R+RBI, 300 HR, 200 SB, .265…but the last couple years I feel like it’s more like 2400 R+RBI, 380 HR, 150 SB, .270. A lot more goes into my draft prep – SPG, ADP eval, but ultimately these are numbers I’m trying to surpass…do you have any goals going into the year? Just from a pure numbers point of view?

Brad Johnson: I aim for 350 HR. The rest tends to work itself out.

Brad Johnson: Had a chat with Jeff Z about this because he focuses on AVG and finds the rest fall into place

Brad Johnson: I think it’s a matter of your personal preferences as to which categories you try to maximize in the draft. Since I’m a sucker for 5 cat guys, I find the if I fall short on HR, I also fall short everywhere else.

tonyc: Travis just posted a piece about the Phillies signing Carlos Santana, buying into the idea that it creates a crowd in the outfield.  Has nobody looked at Nick Williams’ plate discipline stats from last season?  When BABIP hits him he’s going to barely be startable as a platoon bat.

Brad Johnson: Look at his SwStr% in particular. He IS Javier Baez.

Brad Johnson: Except he’s an outfielder with maybe minus defense

Philly Fan: What do you think Philly will do with their newly crowded outfield?

Brad Johnson: They’ll swap Williams and stuff for a pitcher

NtflxnRichHill : I can’t imagine targeting AVG…but 6 ways to 1 half dozen to the other or however that goes

Brad Johnson: I know right. Jeff is a strict spreadsheet user. He’ll take Ian Desmond in the top 10 rounds because his projections tell him it’s a value. I fly by the seat of my pants and focus on ADP.

Brad: re:  streaming pitchers.  I noticed last year that streaming pitchers in my 13 team roto league was more hurtful than helpful.  Did you find that also?  If so, do you see it being a problem in ’18?  Thanks.

Brad Johnson: Well… it sounds like you didn’t stream and keep Godley, Wood, Nelson, and Morton

Brad Johnson: Streaming is always going to hurt your stats. You use it because you 1. need the volume and 2. it’s the best chance to find these breakouts

Brad Johnson: So yea, your streamers in ’18 will hurt. The goal is to balance those out by hanging onto a godley when he wanders onto your roster

Daniel Castro: If I steal all the talent of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, and Clayton Kershaw Monstars-style, how many WAR would I be worth per season? Asking for a friend

Brad Johnson: Sounds like about 16 WAR, assuming you can hit and pitch without needing rest

Shuck Bowalter: Mejia a fantasy asset this year?

Brad Johnson: Francisco?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think Jenrry is coming back

Brad Johnson: To answer your question, probably at some point. Not early in the season

Brad Johnson: Can plan to get him later unless you have an NA slot to stash him

Magic 8 Ball: Dynasty keep 25 league: can keep only one of Bradley Zimmer, Julio Urias or Danny Salazar. Who?

Brad Johnson: I have Zimmer and Salazar in my keep 28. Have Zim ranked higher.

Randy: Hello Brad

Brad Johnson: Hello Randy

Brad Johnson: I think this is a good place to wrap it up.

Brad Johnson: Paul and I may do a joint chat on Friday. See ya then or sometime in the future.

Brad Johnson: Oh, my article for tomorrow is weird. Go read it.