Here’s today’s chat transcript which started very heavy on Joey Gallo then shifted into a bunch of dynasty topics.

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Breakouts and busts. If there was a set procedure for finding both, it would have been found years ago and incorporated into projections. For now, all we have is the overall chances of either happening. Over the past few weeks, I’ve been trying to put a simple value on these chances. I’ve completed the underperforming calculations and will now finish the overperforming metric. Additionally, I will compare both metrics to get an overall idea of the projection’s volatility.

In my last article, I found the breakout thresholds for plate appearances (222 PA) and wOBA (.040) and won’t change these values. Besides these two values, I determined who had both thresholds crossed and when both were partially achieved. The overperformance needed to increase near to the threshold values.

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Yesterday, I recapped my comparison of the starting pitcher ERA Pod Projections vs Steamer projections in which I was more bullish. Today I finish reviwing the Pod Projections vs Steamer projections series by looking at the group of starters I projected for worse ERA marks. Since I mentioned in yesterday’s article that I projected a lower ERA than Steamer for the vast majority of starters (which is one of the reasons I performed so poorly in the results comparison), I only had 21 pitchers whose ERA I was projecting a higher mark for. So this group to review is much smaller and the gap in ERA between the two projections is as well.

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11/27/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• The Braves debacle (3:00)
  • What’d they do?
  • Who’d they lose? (Kevin Maitan)
  • What happens to those prospects?
• Ohtani’s Orrival (23:15)
  • Info on Memo he sent
  • Where’s he going?
• Doug Fister to TEX (32:40)
• Hisashi Iwakuma back to SEA (34:20)

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I like the Sox system, but not for the same reasons as most people. Lucas Giolito should be a decent mid-rotation arm and Eloy Jimenez is going to be a star… but Luis Robert and Blake Rutherford are overrated. Players being undervalued, though, include Alec Hansen, Dane Dunning, Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, A.J. Puckett, and Aaron Bummer.

The Graduate: Yoan Moncada, 2B: As they’re known to do quite often, the White Sox rushed Moncada through the minors after getting their paws on him in the Chris Sale deal last winter. Now, he did hold his own in The Show as a roughly league-average hitter, but the strikeout rate of 32% suggests more issues are to come unless he makes adjustments. Just 22, Moncada has a tantalizing power-speed combo and could be a mainstay in the middle of the Sox lineup if the adjustments happen. Look for him to have an up-and-down year in 2018.

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I recently received an invitation to join Dave Cameron’s Screw Cancer league on ottoneu (I’m A New Owner To Exploit). It’s been in existence since 2012. Any time one joins a longstanding dynasty league, you’re likely to inherit a steaming pile. In this case, former owner Joe Douglas was kind enough to hand me some very solid assets as part of an incomplete roster. He didn’t leave the league due to the usual reasons – poor performance, rigged rules, and/or frustration. Instead, he was hired by an MLB team. Congrats to him.

My new ottoclub includes plenty of players I don’t want to keep. When considering the current state of the roster, it’s tempting to pursue a complete rebuild. My advice, resist the temptation to rush into a remodeling job. Take this opportunity to learn how to use players you don’t like. At the very least, make sure you maximize your trade returns. Let’s take a closer look at my situation.

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We’re winding down the recaps comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer projections and will finish things off by moving on over to starting pitchers. We’ll begin by checking in on the group of hurlers in which I had forecasted a significantly better ERA than Steamer. Let’s see how these pitchers actually performed.

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11/26/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer

Guest Episode

• Steve Moyer & Greg Lumsden from YakkerTech join us to discuss their technology!

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It’s probably been awhile since you’ve read a traditional “buy low, sell high” article.  In today’s golden age of baseball analytics where complex physics and statistics can be boiled down to a few simple indicators accessed instantly using one hand, it’s not very often that we (readers, fans, fantasy players) find ourselves in possession of knowledge before the masses.  For example, try “selling” Avisail Garcia and his recent .375 wOBA around your league without getting some type of response that includes “yeah, but he had a .392 BABIP”.

Thankfully, despite all the data available at our fingertips, the one ingredient that will always play a critical role in the mixture of value is the human element of perception, which can swing wildly in different directions depending who you’re dealing with.  Today I’d like to isolate a few players who’s perception may be suppressing their actual value a little more than it should be, which may represent a buying opportunity for savvy fantasy owners prepping for 2018.  The good news is you don’t have to stand in line to land these deals, but you will still need to get them early.

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11/22/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Aaron Judge shoulder surgery
• Shohei Ohtani coming
• Twins talking Gerrit Cole
• Brewers seeking big arm?
• Mark Appel DFA’d
• Blue Jays in J.D. Martinez market?

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