Reviewing Pod vs Steamer Projections — ERA Upside

We’re winding down the recaps comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer projections and will finish things off by moving on over to starting pitchers. We’ll begin by checking in on the group of hurlers in which I had forecasted a significantly better ERA than Steamer. Let’s see how these pitchers actually performed.

While this appears to be a terrible performance by my projections (I “won” just four of the 13 battles), it’s also important to be reminded that I actually projected a lower ERA for 141 of the 161 pitchers both Steamer and I projected. So I was just overly bullish on ERA in general, which doesn’t really matter for fantasy since values are based on relative stats, not absolute. And since the league ERA mark jumped to its highest mark since 2007, being bullish on ERAs was disastrous! Hopefully that means I performed far better with the ERA Downside group.

I had actually grouped the pitchers into buckets based on the driver of the projected ERA discrepancy, so let’s stick with the same theme for easy discussion.

It’s a BABIP Thing

Marco Estrada, Chris Tillman, Ervin Santana, Tanner Roark, and Julio Teheran had all posted suppressed BABIP marks historically. Estrada’s batted ball profile provided clear justification as a fly ball and pop-up machine. The others were a bit more of a mystery, but they just kept it up. Steamer regressed their BABIP marks more heavily toward the league average than I did and ended up being closer on ERA for four of the five pitchers.

Despite posting a typical batted ball profile, Estrada’s BABIP surged to its highest mark since 2012. I’m betting that was a fluke and would easily take the under on Steamer’s current 5.05 2018 ERA projection. Tillman’s skills always stunk, but a strong BABIP allowed him to consistently outperform his SIERA. This season, his already soft skills eroded further and his BABIP spiked to the second worst mark of his career as the BABIP suppression magic wore off. Santana was my only hit here, as he finished with the lowest BABIP in the AL and second lowest in baseball. But his skills are no good and he’s a serious bust candidate next year.

For four straight years, Roark never posted a BABIP above .292, and yet Steamer projected a .302 mark. Amazingly, it nearly hit the nail on the head, as he actually posted a .300 mark. Whether it was great defensive support and good fortune all this time, or just BABIP suppression skills that faded overnight, who knows. I was actually closer on Julio Teheran’s BABIP, almost nailing it exactly, but a major deterioration of skills in both strikeout and walk rates, plus a bout of gopheritis, pushed his ERA back above 4.00.

It’s a Strikeout Rate Thing

Jordan Zimmermann had fallen so far, I figured a greater dead cat bounce in the strikeout rate department than Steamer projected. I was wrong. Instead, Zimmermann’s strikeout rate fell even further! A loss of fastball velocity has contributed along with throwing fewer strikes. Just from the comments of my original post, it would seem I was right about Nathan Karns‘ strikeout rate not declining significantly like Steamer had projected, but Steamer was still closer on ERA! That’s all thanks to an absurd 19.6% HR/FB rate, which seems hard to do when you call Kauffman Stadium home. Dylan Bundy was another that I was more bullish on the strikeout rate than Steamer, and ended up being right, which resulted in one of my four “winning” projections. I want to be more bullish on his breakout potential given his incredible slider/cutter, but he’s such an extreme fly baller in a park that inflates homers, it’s scary.

The “Are You Sure You’re Only Including Fantasy Relevant Starters?” Section

Well that’s funny. Jimmy Nelson was the only name that found himself here, and he actually enjoyed a breakout season, giving me one of my four wins. Nelson parlayed a career high in fastball velocity with double-digit SwStk% marks on four of his five pitches to boost his strikeout rate to an elite level. Sadly, shoulder surgery will delay the start of his 2018 season and it’s anyone’s guess how the quality of his repertoire is affected.

Let’s Talk Cubbies

The 2016 Cubs provided historically strong defensive support for their pitchers, and while we all figured some regression, basically the same unit was trotting out in 2017. Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks have been SIERA beaters and low BABIP guys for years now, and these are exactly the types Steamer is going to have problems with. I ended up being closer with my BABIP projections for both of them, nearly nailing Hendricks, and was pretty close on Hendricks’ ERA even as his skills declined.

I expected Arrieta’s walk rate to rebound, which it did, but his HR/FB rate spiked and LOB% collapsed, all to the worst marks they have been in a Cubs uniform. Steamer is at it again with the Arrieta pessimism, projecting a 4.20 ERA in 2018.

I Have No Idea

Coming off serious surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome, Matt Harvey’s 2017 performance was a complete mystery. The worst case scenario ended up coming true, as his fastball velocity didn’t come all the way back and his control deteriorated, both of which led to the fourth straight season in which his strikeout rate has fallen along with a career high in walk rate. These issues along with a more than doubling of his previous career high HR/FB rate and a LOB% that slipped below 70% all conspired to result in a disastrous 6.70 ERA. His future is now anyone’s guess.

I Thought I was Bearish, But Hey, Steamer is Even More So!

My opening line in this section was that “Aaron Sanchez is greatly overvalued this draft season.” And yet, Steamer was even more bearish than I was, so you could imagine if Steamer was a person, he would have been hysterically laughing at Sanchez’s 2017 valuation. Everything went wrong for Sanchez this year and he missed most of the season due to injury. He was actually fortunate to escape 2017 with just a 4.25 ERA, as his SIERA was an inflated 5.62. With a draft day price that figures to be far cheaper than in past years, maybe he’ll be worth the gamble this time.