Archive for September, 2017

Quick Takes on Rookie Call Ups

Most of my articles are based off myself wanting to know about a subject and just hoping some readers want similar information. I’ve been overwhelmed over the last week with various names and roles for several prospects. Today, I am going to try to wade through these recent promotions to see which players are rosterable and which are just fluff. They are generally listed in my order of preference but each owner will need to see if a player (e.g. Greg Allen for steals) is usable depending on their own team needs.

Hitters

Jeimer Candelario: His value comes down to he can hit for some power and is playing regularly for the Tigers. Additionally, he’s been red hot since joining the Tigers (.400/.478/.500). He should be a .250 hitter with double digit home runs, and no stolen bases over a full. While boring, he is the only hitter featured playing every day.

Greg Allen: In daily lineup leagues, I see him as a must own for owners needing steals. Allen has one usable fantasy trait and that’s stealing bases. Like many of the rookies called up, he’s not getting regular playing time. He’s only started two games but has been in three others as a pinch hitter or runner. Because of his pinch running skills, steal deprived owners can start him if they have another player taking the day off hoping Allen gets used as a pinch runner. Owners shouldn’t count on him for any other production besides the steals.

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Is Yoan Moncada Disappointing in Ottoneu Leagues?

It seems that since Yoan Moncada was signed by the Boston Redsox in March of 2015 for $31.5 million, he has been a staple atop MLB prospect lists. Top-5 by Baseball America in 2016 and 2017. Number 1 by Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen this season with KATOH+ also ranking him in the top-10. This list goes on. He is an elite prospect. If you play Ottoneu, you already know that.

However, given the pedigree (and the likely fact that he has been owned since his signing in nearly all leagues) it is likely that Moncada’s performance is viewed as a disappointment to Ottoneu owners. I mean this purely on a performance basis. With an average price across in all Fangraph Points leagues of nearly $12, owners are likely expecting production from a premier prospect. With the relative ease at which young players have transitioned to the major leagues over the past few seasons, who can blame them?

Yoan Moncada Career Totals
Season Team Age BB% K% ISO wOBA wRC+
2016 Red Sox 21 5.00% 60.00% 0.053 0.228 33
2017 White Sox 22 15.00% 36.20% 0.16 0.301 86
2017 ZiPS (R) 22 11.00% 27.00% 0.15 0.307 90
2017 Steamer (R) 22 11.30% 31.90% 0.139 0.299 84
2017 Depth Charts (R) 22 11.20% 29.40% 0.144 0.303 87
Career Avg. 13.60% 39.50% 0.144 0.291 79

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Pitcher Spotlight: Luiz Gohara’s MLB Debut

After getting his MLB debut pushed back a day by mother nature, Luiz Gohara finally stepped onto a major league mound for the first time as he started for the Atlanta Braves. Spoiler Alert: It didn’t go well. The 21-year-old allowed 6 ER as he labored through four frames while walking four batters en route to a 2.00 WHIP. Still, it’s a major step for a young southpaw as he began the season in High-A and there was plenty to dissect to get a sense of what he can do in the future. Let’s dive into Gohara’s repertoire and discuss his approach from his MLB debut.

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(Belated) Bullpen Report: September 6, 2017

• With Blake Treinen having pitched in back to back days, the A’s went to Chris Hatcher for the save opportunity and he picked up his first save in a perfect ninth on eight pitches. Santiago Casilla was also unavailable having a heavy work load of late but I still believe this helps secure Hatcher as the next in line in Oakland. Although Treinen was unavailable, he’s also put up L’s in his last three appearances. They haven’t been particularly bad outings and he’s been quite good on Oakland (2.60 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9) so his job is pretty safe but keep an eye on Hatcher if Treinen has an extended slump.

Tyler Lyons threw a scoreless ninth for his second save, striking out two and also allowing two hits. We recently put Lyons atop of the closer grid and it looks like he will stay there for the time being although this situation could still be somewhat of a committee. John Brebbia got the hold in the eighth pitching a perfect inning and he could be moving up on the grid. Brebbia won’t maintain a .193 BABIP but Oh has been very up and down as Brebbia and even Ryan Sherriff are slowly gaining Mike Matheny’s trust.

• The Angels closer situation has been a non-impressive roller coaster thus far but Blake Parker appears to have a decent hold on the job. Ex-closer Bud Norris was activated from the DL and while I don’t expect him to replace Parker, I’ve added him to the grid behind Parker and Cam Bedrosian. As we have seen with their bullpen usage this season however, Keynan Middleton and Petit could also see higher leverage innings.

• Interesting news out of New York regarding the Yankees closer situation as Aroldis Chapman could return back to his familiar role. Dellin Betances has been struggling and the Yankees likely don’t intend to pay Chapman tens of millions to not close. Joe Girardi even said “I possibly would have closed with him tonight, probably, knowing that the other guys could probably use a day off” which doesn’t mean Chapman is the closer now, but I’ve moved him to second in line and made this situation red. Watch the Yankees very closely for both a fun end of season division battle, but more importantly to see who receives the next save opportunity.

Other Bullpen Activity

  • Wade Davis struck out a pair for his 29th save. There’s been a few times given Davis’ injury history where a small struggle got me nervous, along with his elevated walk rate but he’s otherwise been solid all year helping ratios and racking up saves. The walks (up to 12.6% BB% from 9.1% last year) prevents him from entering the elite company but he of course remains a solid option moving forward this year.
  • 13 wins in a row for The Daimondbacks and another arrow for Fernando Rodney as he got his 36th save. Archie Bradley threw a perfect eighth for his 21st hold and is the best option back there but Rodney’s hold is firm. Things might change in 2018 but for now expect Rodney to continue to get saves, especially if they keep playing the Dodgers.
  • After being used more conventionally this summer as a setup man, Chris Devenski is back to his multi-inning ways, picking up the win tonight after getting four outs. With 8 wins, 4 saves, and 91 strikeouts on the year Devenski has been more valuable than many traditional closers. If he’s getting one-to-three outs he’s pretty good but when he’s getting used for longer outings he becomes pretty special.
  • Arodys Vizcaino picked up his 10th save for the Braves in the second game of their double header against the Rangers. Alex Claudio didn’t receive a save opportunity for Texas but did get the last out for Texas in both games.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
ARI Fernando Rodney Archie Bradley David Hernandez
ATL Arodys Vizcaino Jim Johnson Jose Ramirez
BAL Zach Britton Brad Brach Mychal Givens
BOS Craig Kimbrel Addison Reed Matt Barnes Carson Smith
CHC Wade Davis Pedro Strop Carl Edwards Jr.
CWS Juan Minaya Danny Farquhar Gregory Infante Nate Jones
CIN Raisel Iglesias Michael Lorenzen Drew Storen
CLE Cody Allen Joe Smith Bryan Shaw Andrew Miller
COL Greg Holland Jake McGee Pat Neshek
DET Shane Greene Alex Wilson Joe Jimenez
HOU Ken Giles Chris Devenski Luke Gregerson
KC Kelvin Herrera Brandon Maurer Scott Alexander Joakim Soria
LAA Blake Parker Cam Bedrosian Bud Norris
LAD Kenley Jansen Brandon Morrow Pedro Baez
MIA Brad Ziegler Kyle Barraclough Drew Steckenrider
MIL Corey Knebel Anthony Swarzak Josh Hader
MIN Matt Belisle Trevor Hildenberger Alan Busenitz
NYM A.J. Ramos Jeurys Familia Paul Sewald
NYY Dellin Betances Aroldis Chapman David Robertson
OAK Blake Treinen Chris Hatcher Liam Hendriks
PHI Hector Neris Juan Nicasio Luis Garcia
PIT Felipe Rivero Daniel Hudson A.J. Schugel Joaquin Benoit
STL Tyler Lyons Seung Hwan Oh John Brebbia Trevor Rosenthal
SD Brad Hand Kirby Yates Phil Maton
SF Sam Dyson Hunter Strickland Mark Melancon
SEA Edwin Diaz Nick Vincent Marc Rzepczynski Tony Zych
TB Alex Colome Tommy Hunter Steve Cishek
TEX Alex Claudio Tony Barnette Jake Diekman Keone Kela
TOR Roberto Osuna Ryan Tepera Dominic Leone
WSH Sean Doolittle Brandon Kintzler Ryan Madson

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


The Daily Grind: A Return of Sorts

As promised, we’re returning to FanDuel after a lengthy two week hiatus. All prices and point totals will be displayed in FanDuel terms.

AGENDA

  1. !$%$!^
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Roto Riteup: September 7, 2017

The Roto Riteup reminds you that even if you’re not good at something, it doesn’t mean you should try:

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Six Power Bats for the Stretch Run

At this point in the season, there is a lot of specific category chasing as you try to edge out every possible point en route to that championship. Here are six power bats with varying degrees of availability (hopefully something for every league type) who could deliver those key homers for you down the stretch. These are flawed players, that’s why they’re available, but you should be able to extract some value when deployed properly.

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Final Stretch Pitchers: Giolito & Richards

As the season winds down, here are two pitchers who owners may want to consider as options as other starters get shut down.

Lucas Giolito

Over the last year or so, I haven’t been kind to Lucas Giolito. In four starts major league starts last season, he issued more walks (5.1 BB/9) than strikeouts (4.6 K/9). His fastball velocity dropped from the high to the low 90’s. He was a top ten prospect coming into the 2016 season but his stock dropped to the point where his 2017 prospect rankings were closer to 50th overall.

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The Daily Grind: A Lively Discussion

Someday, September will be over… It’s only the sixth? #@!@%

AGENDA

  1. Lively Bat
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Roto Riteup: September 6, 2017

The Red Sox were accused of cheating and there were some hot takes on twitter:

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