Is Yoan Moncada Disappointing in Ottoneu Leagues?

It seems that since Yoan Moncada was signed by the Boston Redsox in March of 2015 for $31.5 million, he has been a staple atop MLB prospect lists. Top-5 by Baseball America in 2016 and 2017. Number 1 by Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen this season with KATOH+ also ranking him in the top-10. This list goes on. He is an elite prospect. If you play Ottoneu, you already know that.

However, given the pedigree (and the likely fact that he has been owned since his signing in nearly all leagues) it is likely that Moncada’s performance is viewed as a disappointment to Ottoneu owners. I mean this purely on a performance basis. With an average price across in all Fangraph Points leagues of nearly $12, owners are likely expecting production from a premier prospect. With the relative ease at which young players have transitioned to the major leagues over the past few seasons, who can blame them?

Starting with Longenhagen’s scouting report, I wanted to confirm that the player we are seeing now at least resembles what we should have expected prior to his debut. Even if we shouldn’t expect a finished product instantaneously, it is helpful to see confirmation of our expectations:

Even with a worse-than-average strikeout rate factored into his hit tool’s grade, I think Moncada is a future plus hitter because, when he does connect, he’s vaporizing baseballs into play and his career-long BABIP and ISO are evidence of that. I think it’s reasonable to say Moncada’s career BABIP rate will rest, at the very least, comfortably above the league-average .300 mark when you factor in his speed and the quality of contact he makes when he does connect.

So what does a player like this look like? A higher than average strikeout rate would lead us to below average contact and a higher than average swinging strike rate (these two go hand-in-hand). He should also have a higher than average exit velocity, focusing on the quality of contact that Longenhagen describes. While we don’t have exit velocity data for every season, we do have Hard hit rate here on Fangraphs for recent years, which can help us in some capacity.

In terms of exit velocity, the scouting report holds up. With Moncada displaying above average exit velocities overall, with significantly higher exit velocities on quality batted balls. He is roughly 6 mph above average on batted balls between 19 and 26 degrees and about 4 mph above average on batted balls from 26 to 39 degrees.

Looking at players who have possessed similar skills over the past 10 seasons (below average contact, below average swinging strike rates, above average hard hit rates), we arrive at a list of 476 players with the following average stat line:

This is somewhat encouraging and gives an idea of potential upside with a player like Moncada. If he could run a .348 wOBA, even in today’s offensive environment, that would be a pretty valuable player. However, we are only looking at players who are making below average contact. Moncada’s contact rate, on the other hand, sits at ~66%, while the league average rate is just under ~78%. Similarly, his swinging strike rate is at 14%, while the league average rate is just over 10%. You probably guessed it based on his exit velocity, but his hard hit rate is also well above the league average rate of ~32%, at 40%. Simply put, there is a decent case to be made that Moncada is one of the more extreme players of this profile. So looking at this sample again, what happens if we limit our data slightly?

For display purposes, I am only including seasons from 2014 forward in the above table. All seasons from 2007 to 2017 were included in the total.  However, given the slow start to Moncada’s career, this should be encouraging. We can see that the profile of below average contact isn’t quite the negative it appears to be for Amed Rosario, when above average exit velocity also part of the profile. Does that mean that Moncada is turns things around immediately, absolutely not. But astute Ottoneu owners should recognize what will likely be a relatively easy buying opportunity this offseason given Moncada’s likely price in the mid-teens.

Oddly enough, the name that comes up most frequently on similar seasons to Moncada is Ryan Howard. I say oddly only because my perception is that if you are visiting Fangraphs, comparisons to Howard likely don’t invoke much confidence. However, given that athleticism is not an issue for Moncada, and this comparison is only based on offensive value, this would be an extremely favorable outcome. 9 Ryan Howard seasons meet the criteria we have outlined above. The next closest players are Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Pena, both with 6 seasons. Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds each have 5 similar seasons.

Perhaps this is a further indication of the oddities of Yoan Moncada, these players are all power first corner players (mostly 1B with the exception of Stanton). However, Moncada possess athletic ability that surpasses nearly all of his offensive comparables. For fantasy players, who often make extremely quick decisions, I would encourage patience with a profile that may garner more pessimism (at first glace) than it deserves.