Jaycob Brugman & Alex Presley: Deep League Wire
If you’re in dire need of outfield help in your deep league, you’ve stumbled upon the perfect place.
If you’re in dire need of outfield help in your deep league, you’ve stumbled upon the perfect place.
Hunter Pence is my spirit animal:
¯\_(ツ)_/¯#FirstGifComesUpForYourName pic.twitter.com/pJmAHRSXGl
— Hunter Pence (@hunterpence) June 20, 2017
• Bud Norris was placed on the DL with knee inflammation and he’s been replaced on the grid somewhat by Cam Bedrosian. Bedrosian threw a scoreless frame on Saturday and also threw a perfect seventh this evening getting the Hold against the Yankees. There was no save situation but David Hernandez pitched in the ninth with Keynan Middleton also seeing some high leverage innings throwing a perfect eighth. It’s tough to gauge where the saves lie currently in Anaheim but I’m going to put Cam in the closer’s chair as he’s their best currently healthy reliever (when he’s healthy). I’d partially consider this a platoon of sorts until it gets sorted out which won’t get any less confusing as Huston Street is set to return at some point this week. I could see Street leapfrogging the competition if they do poorly but given his lack of success and health concerns of his own in recent years I think Street will be eased into the bullpen.
For some reason I have no idea how to number these episodes. I numbered the last one 471 when it was 470.
6/20/17
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Very Quick Look: Tyson Ross
Tyson Ross made one start and his results seem acceptable with a 7.9 K/9 and a 3.18 ERA. Beyond those two stats, his line gets ugly. His fastball velocity is down to 90.1 mph which is ~2.5 mph less than last season and ~4.5 mph off his career peak. He walked three batters in only 5.1 innings of work. His swinging strike rate was just 5.3% which would be a career low.
With the mixed signals, I decided to take a quick look at his start.
• He started off the game with two pitches way outside and walked the first batter. This at bat set the tone for the rest of the game.
A few weeks ago, I stole RotoGraphs contributor Joe Douglas’ idea (with his permission) as I pointed out that the “generic” Tommy Pham had provided surprisingly similar offensive production in his career to the “brand name” Michael Conforto. It was a fun exercise, and one that we’re going to do again today.
To set the stage, we’re going to talk about two rookies with outfield eligibility. One receives plenty of attention and hype; the other, not so much. Mr. Generic debuted in 2016 but is still considered a rookie this season, while Mr. Brand Name debuted in 2017. Here’s how they’ve fared so far this year:
Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mr. Brand Name | 210 | 10.0% | 30.5% | .367 | .283 | .261 | .333 | .628 | .388 | 144 | 1.8 |
Mr. Generic | 199 | 6.0% | 27.6% | .266 | .378 | .310 | .352 | .576 | .386 | 141 | 1.2 |
The first thing that jumps out is the nearly 100-point difference in BABIP, and the fact that Mr. Generic’s BABIP is perhaps unsustainably high. More about that in a minute.
Yesterday, I listed a slew of hitters whose HR/FB rates sit far higher than we expected heading into the year. But there have been so many darn surprises, I felt the need to continue discussing names. These are the guys that I literally do a double take when I see their HR/FB rates and think “wait…WHAT?!?!”. Once again, I included their xHR/FB rate marks as well to help gauge how sustainable these surprise power sources are.
You guys… Cody Bellinger is good…
.@Cody_Bellinger is the 2nd player to hit 20 homers in the first half of his first season at age 21 or younger.
The 1st was @PujolsFive. pic.twitter.com/sHTcns5RX3
— MLB Stat of the Day (@MLBStatoftheDay) June 20, 2017
• The biggest news of the day is that Andrew Miller and Cody Allen have switched roles, for now. Terry Francona suggested that he was throwing Andrew Miller too much and the change in roles should remain “for the time being.” How long that is, nobody is really sure but since it’s not a matter of performance I don’t think the change will last too long. This situation remains green as it’s definitely Andrew Miller’s job but it just may not remain that way for all that much time.
Now is as good a time as any to brag about Andrew Miller this season. In 35.2 innings he has a 1.51/1.92/2.70 ERA/FIP/xFIP with a 2.16 SIERA and 51 strikeouts against just eight walks. Miller will see fewer innings but the increase in saves will certainly only help his value, in a save focused league of course. Allen has been great as well but he’s more the generally great reliever with a 2.00/2.57/3.86 pitching line and not the top tier that Miller is. Allen’s value will fall a bit pitching in the eighth but he also might see an uptick in his overall usage, helping those ratios and strikeout totals. This might end up being more noise than anything else but adjust your saves projections accordingly.
Every year, it seems like there’s a handful of veteran players who go overlooked by fantasy owners. Part of it is likely that these 30-somethings do not excite you anymore. You’ve been scrolling past some of these names for a decade, if not longer. Your eyes simply skim through them on their quest to find that young sleeper who’s about to break out.
Another part of the the puzzle may be that no analysts write about these guys anymore. What would anyone possibly have to say at this point about a player we’ve all been watching since 2005? “He’s still here”? That’s no fun — at least, it’s far less fun than projecting the next breakout performer.
As someone who understands that life isn’t always fun, I hereby declare my intent to remind you that the following three players are worth owning, despite their relatively high ‘old and boring’ levels.
Shin-Soo Choo (17% Yahoo, 17.5% ESPN, 46% CBS, 92.1% Ottoneu)
I understand there might not be anything sexy about owning Choo these days. The guy does turn 35 next month, and spent most of last year struggling with injuries. However, the fact that he’s owned in about 17% of Yahoo/ESPN leagues is entirely unforgivable. Check out these numbers and tell me why he’s on your waiver wire.