I’ve always been a fan of Josh Harrison. It’s probably because I’m a fan of those superutility types, regardless of their actual ability to play all of the positions at which they appear. Nonetheless, there’s a certainly level of validation that comes along with actively cheering for Harrison this season. Despite the plight of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Harrison has been a steady performer to the point where WAR has him valued near the top of this year’s qualifying third basemen. It’s certainly worth exploring, though, if Harrison’s ascent in 2017 is legitimate, or if we should see him slip back down to the level of production that we’ve come to expect from him thanks to the past couple of seasons.

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Last month, I went through pitchers who had improved their projections the most since the start of the season. It was May 5th, so we were looking at close to a months worth of games. To revisit the methodology, I wanted to look at pitchers who had improved their projections the most from the start of the season, while also examining their underlying skills.  What I specifically was considering was pitchers who were inducing less contact in the zone – the area where batters are more likely to make contact – while also seeing if they were throwing in the zone more or less than they had previously. I was using zone contact rate in conjunction with frequency of pitches in the zone as a proxy for improved stuff. Of these two variables, improvement zone-contact rate being the more important.

Over the first month, this list would have been small: Chris Sale, Danny Salazar, Jeff Samardzija, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova were the only starters who improved in both capacities. If we expanded the bounds on zone frequency, we would add Jacob deGrom, James Paxton, Zack Greinke, Taijuan Walker, and Carlos Martinez to the list. Not a bad list of pitchers if you’re trying to look for SP who are on everyone’s radar, but also could be showing real improvements in 2017.

Today, I want to revisit this exercise. However, I will only be looking at improvements over the last month. Over the last month, here are all SP who have improved their Ottoneu FGpts projections by more than .05 points per inning. (If you don’t play Ottoneu, this should be generalize enough to help you in standard leagues). Read the rest of this entry »

Ready to go swimming? Into the mysterious waters of the free agent pool? Search for these two dudes, they may very well bring you to a championship.

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The theme this week is one-word analysis. Coming at ya hot!

AGENDA

1. Some Runs Were Scored
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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This is what it is like when I ask my coworkers to cover a shift for me:

Feeling down about your favorite team? Just remember: It could be worse. You could be the Reds. pic.twitter.com/LODOMAhRWC

— Baseball is Fun (@flippingbats) June 13, 2017

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Tuesday’s slate of games was a quiet one for saves. There were 16 contests in total, but only six relievers emerged with saves. One of them was Tyler Lyons, whose first career save was the result of a scoreless three-inning effort, in which he allowed three hits, walked none and struck out two.

Things were also eerily quiet on the Phillies’ closer front, as we are now a full week removed from when Pete Mackanin suggested that he may use Pat Neshek in the closer’s role over Hector Neris, at least on a temporary basis. They have gone 0-7 since then and have not had a ninth-inning save opportunity during that time. On Monday, they came close, as the Phillies entered the eighth with a 5-4 lead over the Red Sox. The curious thing was that Neshek had already been used in the seventh, and Mackanin brought Joaquin Benoit in to pitch the eighth. Benoit allowed a two-out solo home run to Hanley Ramirez, thus blowing the save as well as the chance for us to see if Neris would come in for the ninth inning.
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Late last season and into the start of this season, I couldn’t stop singing the praises of Robert Gsellman. Gsellman had the pitcher trifecta going on with above average strikeout and groundball rates and a below average walk rate. While I encouraged owners to acquire him, I didn’t completely buy into the transformation. But I still hoped for the best. My reservations and hopes can be linked back to T.J. House and Jacob deGrom and the waning months of 2014 season.

Near the end 2014, House put together a respectable season with a 7.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 61% GB%. They combined to support a 3.35 ERA and I was all in going into 2015. He seemed to be the perfect sleeper candidate with results similar to Dallas Keuchel.

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Here’s today’s chat transcript. There was an unusual number of comments (i.e. any) about Napoleon Dynamite. I only published one of them.

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Contrary to what the title implies, I don’t think any games will be postponed today. Delayed though? Yes, some will be delayed.

AGENDA

1. DFS Relevant Draft Picks
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Last week, I discussed the two month BABIP underachievers, identifying names whose marks fell significantly below my xBABIP. Now let’s take a look at some of the hitters whose low BABIP marks are actually validated by xBABIP. These are the guys who at first glance, your knee-jerk reaction might be to expect a dramatic rebound, but the underlying skills that drive BABIP suggest there has been little bad fortune involved. That’s not to say that the hitters are going to maintain such weak skills, but that looking backward, the poor results have been legitimate.

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