Earlier this week, I recommended Zack Godley in all leagues. A little while later, I got the following tweet

@jeffwzimmerman @rotographs Great Godley piece Jeff. I’m torn. Do i drop Shoemaker Berrios or my 3rd RP Betances to grab him in 14 team weekly points lg? 5 keepers.

— Marcus Aurelius (@WilcoWacko) May 17, 2017

It’s a tough call and one I face in my own home league where everyone is not 100% invested in their team. Just because a player should be owned, he may not be a fit on a team. Here’s how owners should operate when the situation arises.

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The leaderboards at FanGraphs is a fun place to poke around. Behold this list of pitchers:

What do they all have in common? Aside from having thrown at least 20 innings, these are the only hurlers in baseball who rank in the upper half of the stats I first look to when evaluating pitchers. Namely, they all boast better than average K-BB%, GB%, Z-Contact%, and swinging strike rates. There are some obviously great pitchers on this list but I’m not interested in talking about Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, or Carlos Martinez. Though if you’re a little frustrated with Lester or CarMar, I both empathize and suggest exercising a little patience. Rather, I’d like to dive deeper into some of the list’s lesser-owned and lesser-known players who won’t cost nearly as much to acquire.  Read the rest of this entry »

We all know that names like Chris Sale, Danny Salazar, and Chris Archer are going to rank among the top tier in SwStk%. So let’s instead discuss the surprising names inside the top 20 in the American League of SwStk% that have all enjoyed surges from last season.

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I’m sluggish today after the dog decided a 1:00am walk was a good idea. Then sleep decided to elude me. I’m not meant to operate on short sleep. But the grind goes on…

AGENDA

1. Zimmering
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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A day after talking up my boy Bradley Zimmer he got his first MLB hit on an impressive piece of hitting here:

Milestone moment: @Bzimmer5’s first career hit, in GIF form. #RallyTogether pic.twitter.com/sKz87Oa2u4

— #VoteTribe 5x a day (@Indians) May 17, 2017

Oh yeah, he also went yard later in the game…

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Nothing all that momentous occurred in bullpens on Wednesday. Mark Melancon got activated two days ahead of schedule, ending the brief but largely successful run of Derek Law. Dellin Betances recorded his first save of the season by getting one out on four pitches. Ben Taylor got his first career save, because the Red Sox had already used their other seven relievers in a 13-inning affair in St. Louis.

But the biggest impact on a closer situation came on Tuesday. Mariners manager Scott Servais announced he was removing Edwin Diaz from the closer’s role, as the 23-year-old’s struggles came to a head on Monday. Diaz walked four straight batters and had to be removed with one out in the bottom of the ninth inning in an eventual 6-5 win over the Athletics. Servais told the Seattle Times he planned on mixing and matching any of four relievers — Steve Cishek, Tony Zych, Nick Vincent and Marc Rzepczynski — in save situations. Read the rest of this entry »

5/17/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Strategy Section: My Pitcher Rankings

• The show is spent discussing my new pitching rankings, coming out tomorrow!

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Quick Look: Zack Godley

I’ve had my eye on Godley since spring training when his velocity climbed up a couple ticks. It has stayed up and so has his production. The following is a take on the 27-year-old’s most recent start.

I’m stuck using Arizona’s bad camera angle since all his starts have been at home so far this season. Sorry, it’s far from the best view.

• Sinker(Fastball): 90 to 93 mph with release-side run with some late sink. It’s kind of a unique pitch with all the ground balls and limited sink. It won’t get many swings-and-misses (3% on the season) because of the limited break.

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#3: May 3
#2: April 24
#1: April 13

* * *

It’s episode No. 4 of my Small-Sample Normalization Services, which, in Star Wars terms, means this will be, like… the 3rd-best post of the series? Is that how that works? I know to nothing about what’s believed to be the consensus on the merits of each film. I already regret making this stupid comparison.

Allow me, then, to touch upon (and revisit) some players whose performances through six weeks are worth critiquing. Six weeks is still a considerably small sample when it takes hundreds of plate appearances (or, for ball-in-play metrics, batted balls) for certain standard and advanced metrics to become reliable (or, in common but sometimes misused parlance, “to stabilize”). Check previous posts for the rules, but know that a rating of 1 means Hype City and a rating of 5 means, uh, Alarm City. A 3, therefore, would be neutral.

All graphs pulled prior to yesterday’s games.

* * *

Name: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY SP
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Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon, and Jeurys Familia are on the disabled list. Edwin Diaz, Seung Hwan Oh, Kelvin Herrera, and Sam Dyson have had major difficulties. Greg Holland, Justin Wilson, Corey Knebel, and Bud Norris have been unexpected studs.

If you find yourself frustrated with the volatility of relief pitcher performance, you’re probably not alone. The names above represent just a handful of seemingly dozens of unexpected developments in the relief pitcher landscape that take place throughout the course of season and affect major league rosters and fantasy teams alike.

For example, a few weeks ago, I traded $6 Edwin Diaz and $3 Carter Capps for $9 Mitch Haniger in an Ottoneu fantasy league. Later, I flipped the $9 Haniger for a $9 Gary Sanchez. Read the rest of this entry »