Bullpen Report: May 17, 2017
Nothing all that momentous occurred in bullpens on Wednesday. Mark Melancon got activated two days ahead of schedule, ending the brief but largely successful run of Derek Law. Dellin Betances recorded his first save of the season by getting one out on four pitches. Ben Taylor got his first career save, because the Red Sox had already used their other seven relievers in a 13-inning affair in St. Louis.
But the biggest impact on a closer situation came on Tuesday. Mariners manager Scott Servais announced he was removing Edwin Diaz from the closer’s role, as the 23-year-old’s struggles came to a head on Monday. Diaz walked four straight batters and had to be removed with one out in the bottom of the ninth inning in an eventual 6-5 win over the Athletics. Servais told the Seattle Times he planned on mixing and matching any of four relievers — Steve Cishek, Tony Zych, Nick Vincent and Marc Rzepczynski — in save situations.
Then on Tuesday night, the Mariners gave Servais an opportunity to showcase his new committee approach. With a 5-4 lead, Servais went with Cishek, who promptly blew the save by allowing a Rajai Davis single and a two-run homer by Matt Joyce.
Thanks to a sterling performance by starter Christian Bergman, the Mariners did not need a closer on Wednesday, so the short-term closer picture remains murky. Cishek has pitched only two-thirds of an inning since coming off his DL stint for recovery from hip surgery. Having blown his first save chance, he seems like an unlikely candidate to be placed in a high-leverage situation anytime soon. Rzepczynski had not allowed a run this season until he entered Tuesday’s game in relief of Cishek, but given his prior role as a lefty specialist, it is conceivable that Servais may favor using him for critical lefty-on-lefty situations earlier in games.
That leaves Zych, who mopped up after Diaz on Monday and got the save, and Vincent. Zych has the more overpowering stuff, but of the two, he is also more likely to fall into the sorts of acute troubles with control that have cropped up for Diaz. Vincent has been used more often in the eighth-inning setup role of late, so I suspect he may get the ninth-inning call a little more frequently than Zych. If I needed to speculate on a short-term source of saves in this situation, I’d target Vincent.
However, I would expect Diaz to return to the role as soon as he has some success in lower-leverage situations. He was too good last season to not get a second chance and to not have a good chance of succeeding when it’s presented to him. Diaz owners should not drop him, and in leagues where he has been dropped, it’s time to give him a new home.
Brandon Maurer provided the nightly dose of closer drama by giving up two runs on four consecutive hits in the Padres’ 3-1 loss to the Brewers. Maurer could have been out of the inning on a double play, but Erick Aybar deflected a Domingo Santana liner that put runners on the corners with one out. Nonetheless, this was Maurer’s third multi-run effort out of his last four appearances. Manager Andy Green told the Padres Radio Network that Maurer’s “stuff is still there,” so we shouldn’t expect an imminent change. It still might not be a bad idea to check in on Brad Hand’s availability and to keep an eye on Carter Capps‘ progress in his rehab work.
With the Brewers taking a two-run lead into the bottom of the ninth against the Padres, Corey Knebel was able to solidify his case to be the team’s full-time closer. He finished out his inning by getting Hunter Renfroe and Allen Cordoba to strike out swinging.
Saves roundup: Ken Giles (11), Wade Davis (9), Justin Wilson (3), Knebel (2), Betances (1), Taylor (1).
Other closer activity: Alex Colome (1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 0 K), Fernando Rodney (1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K), Addison Reed (2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K), Jim Johnson (1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K), Seung Hwan Oh (2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K), Craig Kimbrel (1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K) and Hector Neris (2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K) pitched in non-save situations.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.
What’s your favorite method for searching for emerging relievers (I play in a save/hold league). K% sort on the leaderboard? K-BB%?
How would you rank these closers ROS: Maurer, Watson, Johnson, Casilla
Looking to trade a starter for one of these guys. Might be able to get Maurer super cheap. Despite that ugly ERA, he has a sparkling 1.97 xFIP, a 20/2 K/BB ratio, and an uptick on his fastball.
Would you trade someone like Taijuan Walker for one of these guys? He’s my most expendable starter on a very strong staff.
I don’t think I’d trade Walker for any of them, but that’s still probably league/team context specific.
In terms of “stuff”, Maurer is #1. In terms of job security, none of these guys scream “safe”, so I’d probably take Maurer #1 over the rest, with Johnson a close 2nd, though he’s more certain to be dealt into a setup role.
It’s a 10 teamer. My starters are Strasburg, Carrasco, Paxton, McCullers, Hill, Nola, Maeda, Urias, Walker, E-Rod. Relievers are Holland, Bush and Neris. Thinking I have the starter strength and depth to swap a starter for another closer.
Any opinion on the Kam Mickolio signing? I think he can perform better than Matt Belisle this year.
Considering he was signed two days ago and hasn’t pitched in the MLB since 2011, I think we’d need to see his stuff before saying he can setup for the Twins.
Just out of curiosity, at what point does Rodney stop being red? He hasn’t allowed a run in all of May (5.2 IP, 6 appearances), and has only allowed 1 hit and 2 walks in that time (0.53 WHIP). His FIP in that time is 2.33. Yes, he had a terrible April, largely driven by an unsustainable .467 BABIP, 42.5 LOB%, and 20% HR/FB.
I’m not trying to argue that he’s good or anything, just that he looks pretty safe to me. He’s converted saves at a better rate than “green” closers Matt Bush, Jim Johnson, Mark Melancon, and Roberto Osuna, his manager has expressed confidence in him and given no indication that he is looking to make a change, and no one is threatening his job (JJ Hoover has a 4.15 ERA and 8.35 FIP in 4.1 IP in May, and I really doubt they’re going to change De La Rosa’s role as a Miller/Devenski-type).
I know the colors aren’t meant to be the be-all-end-all, but I really think red is very misleading. If it’s simply because his surface stats are ugly, maybe yellow would be more appropriate?
EDIT: I wanted to add that I appreciate the work you do and follow this article religiously, so I’m not trying to say you’re doing a bad job or anything, just trying to add to the discussion. Thanks!
Interesting about de la Rosa. I think he’s been used as more of the setup guy, with Hoover being the 7th inning one. Their Miller/Devenski guy to me is definitely Archie Bradley.
I think its a liability thing if you give professional fantasy advice. kind of like a disclaimer, or the surgeon generals warning on a pack of cigarettes. to make you really consider the risk-reward.
What’s your take on this Pazos talk in Seattle?