Archive for May, 2017

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 456 – Eight Buy Low Arms

5/11/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Strategy Section: Buy Low Arms

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Quick Looks: Ramirez & Clevinger

In my AL-only league, I needed to fill in a couple pitching slots with James Paxton and Corey Kluber on the DL (and Berrios still in the minors). With almost no time for research (8 pm Sunday deadline), I bought both JC Ramirez and Mike Clevinger on a whim. Here’s what I ended up with.

JC Ramirez

Ramirez was exclusively a reliever in the majors until his last five starts. While his 3.74 ERA is not ideal, he has an 8.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. I went back and watched his start on April 19th against the Astros (great camera angle). Here’s what I saw.

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Misconceptions About Launch Angle

There has been so much talk recently about batters increasing their launch angle. You have probably seen dozens of articles from sources all around the internet, some focusing on a reduction in ground ball rates, others on increased home run rates.  Some focus on specific average launch angle ranges, claiming this or that average launch angle may be more useful for this or that reason. It is getting confusing, I’m confused.  I’m sure you’re confused.  Or maybe you’re burned out from all this launch angle talk.  Bear with me, I’m going to try to demystify what is going on, and hopefully you can use it to your advantage in the coming weeks while others still struggle.

First, exit velocity, generally speaking, means more than launch angle in terms of predicting success.  In fact, you can predict batted ball outcomes using exit velocity alone. I have done so in the past, and I could predict how many runs would be scored in any given game with a good deal of accuracy. That’s another topic, though. The key takeaway is this: Exit Velocity trumps angle.

Second, exit velocity peaks between -10 and 10 degrees of vertical launch angle for pretty much every batter.  I would say every batter, but there is probably an exception. This comes down to physics, mostly. It is determined by the angle of attack on the pitched baseball.  Imagine the curve the ball follows between the release point in the pitcher’s hand all the way to the point at which it crosses the plate.  As I understand it, on average, that angle is somewhere between 0 and 10 degrees. For breaking balls the angle is steeper, on fastballs it is more shallow, but give or take, averaging everything out, it is between 0 and 10 degrees. Read the rest of this entry »


Minors to the Majors: Home-to-First Time Analysis

Finally. I’ve always wondered why home-to-first times weren’t publicly available. It seems like every other stat is tracked but not the information every scout is tracking. Now I’ve got my hands on the data to analyze. It’s still not publicly available yet but after quite a bit of nagging, I was able to convince MLBAM to let me have the 2016 season data. Here’s my initial breakdown.

I needed to get the data in a useable format with an idea of the hitter’s top speed. Every hitter doesn’t go all out to first base on every play. I wanted just the top times. The problem with just using the best times was many were bunts. Historically, home-to-first times are calculated from contact on a normal swing to when the batter touches first base. Here is an example with Mike Trout.

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Early Season Pitcher Workloads

Traditional pitching metrics, such as innings pitched, and pitch counts, have often missed the mark when it comes to preventing pitcher injuries. As a result, I developed the Fatigue Units metric – which shows promise in illustrating how extreme workloads can influence pitchers in the subsequent seasons.

As a quick refresher – Fatigue Units are calculated by looking at an interaction between the number of pitches thrown, the velocity they are thrown at, the time taken between pitches, and the number of days between appearances. In the 2015 and 2016 season – these were your FU leaders.

2015 and 2016 Fatigue Units
Rank Name 2015 2016 Total
1 Travis Wood 24.48 20.13 44.61
2 Dellin Betances 24.13 20.15 44.28
3 Chris Sale 21.92 21.51 43.43
4 Max Scherzer 20.38 20.16 40.54
5 Chris Archer 21.18 18.93 40.11
6 Johnny Cueto 21.85 17.92 39.77
7 Jeurys Familia 21.04 17.97 39.02
8 Yordano Ventura 19.49 19.24 38.73
9 Jake Arrieta 21.70 16.55 38.25
10 Randall Delgado 19.26 18.71 37.98
11 Roberto Osuna 18.00 19.82 37.82
12 Cole Hamels 19.93 17.57 37.50
13 Brad Brach 18.14 19.15 37.29
14 Zach Duke 17.12 19.84 36.97
15 Addison Reed 15.54 21.17 36.72
16 David Price 19.45 17.22 36.67
17 Erasmo Ramirez 17.74 18.83 36.57
18 Hector Santiago 19.95 16.60 36.55
19 Kyle Barraclough 15.99 20.50 36.48
20 Madison Bumgarner 18.35 18.03 36.38

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The Daily Grind: New Section Alert

New Section!

AGENDA

  1. Self Preservation
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Perfect Lineup
  4. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  5. Hitters to Use
  6. SaberSim Says…
  7. TDG Invitational Returns!

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The Catcher’s Call for Effective Velocity

To date, all of my Effective Velocity research has centered on pitchers. That is probably because the story that introduced me to the concept of EV focused on Trevor Bauer in the narrative, which tied the concept to the position in my mind. However, the more I’ve thought about it over the last several weeks, the more convinced I’ve become that catchers would likely share the responsibility for their pitchers’ EV adherence. After all, for every Bauer, there are probably dozens of pitchers who rarely if ever shake off the signs their catchers throw down. Meanwhile, the concept of EV falls into the game-calling strategy bucket that we more typically associate with catchers than pitchers.

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The AL SP FB% Decliners

Last week, I identified and discussed eight American League starting pitchers that have seen their fly ball rate increase most versus last year. Let’s flip the coin this time and check in on those starters that have seen their fly ball rate decline.

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Bullpen Report: May 10, 2017

Jeurys Familia had been one of the most valuable and reliable closers over the last two seasons. Now, less than two weeks after returning to the closer’s role for the Mets following his 15-game domestic violence suspension and a brief “easing in” period, one has to wonder how secure his job is.

Familia blew his first save of the season Wednesday in a 6-5 loss to the Giants, but signs of trouble had been brewing for awhile. Upon his return to the Mets, Familia struggled with control, and while he has improved in that regard lately, he hasn’t been fooling many hitters. He has thrown 61 pitches in the month of May, and has coaxed exactly one swinging strike. That was back on May 1. Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 455 – Live from Sporer Manor!!

5/10/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

**Eno’s Beer Event**

Strategy Section: Differences at the Dish

Fewer Fastballs

SF Bullpen & general closer tangent (38:15)

Launch Angles

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 74 minutes of joyous analysis.