What do we do to analyze players this early in the season? Focus on the underlying metrics that stabilize quickest and try to spot early changes. While our sample size stabilization points don’t include any advanced metrics, I would bet that the plate discipline metrics, including Z-Contact%, would sit on the low end in terms of how many plate appearances or batters faced they require to reach the calculated stabilization points. So let’s dive into the American League starting pitchers that have improved their Z-Contact% most from last year. Is there anything more illustrative of the quality of a pitcher’s stuff than making a batter miss a pitch in the strike zone?

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Been a rough week for some fantasy owners…

Life comes at you fast … https://t.co/FXTPGcOdMo pic.twitter.com/Z1SK5gwcI5

— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) April 19, 2017

…but here at the Roto Riteup, we are always here to give you a little pick me up:

When B-Rabbit drops the mic. https://t.co/c7hHQcngcI pic.twitter.com/0l5NHvNRrm

— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) April 20, 2017

On the Agenda:

1. Closer Clarifications

2. Various News and Notes

3. Streaming Pitcher Options

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Koda Glover or Shawn Kelley? Shawn Kelley or Koda Glover? The intrigue began Tuesday night when Blake Treinen loaded up the bases in the bottom of the ninth inning against the Braves, walked in a run to cut the Nationals’ lead to two and had to be bailed out by Kelley. Dusty Baker told reporters after the game he needed to fix the Nationals’ closer situation, and on Wednesday, he made his move. He announced that Glover and Kelley would share the closer role.

It’s not all that surprising that, despite closing out Tuesday’s win, Kelley is not getting the role full-time. For one, there were members of the Nationals coaching staff who wanted Glover to be the closer coming out of spring training. There were also worries within the organization that Kelley was not durable enough to pitch on consecutive days. So despite the fact that Kelley has years of outstanding peripherals and had success during his brief stint as the Nationals’ closer last summer, a share of the job was likely going to be the most he would get.

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Starling Marte was suspended for 80 games on Tuesday after testing positive for Nandrolone back in Spring Training and then losing the subsequent appeal. Let’s be honest, the first thought for most of you was how it impacts your fantasy league, whether you have Marte or not. Replacing him will be no easy feat. He was a firm second rounder all draft season, going at pick 23 on average and falling no lower than pick 36 in NFBC drafts.

Despite losing 10 homers off his 2015 total, he still finished as the fifth-best outfielder last year according to ESPN’s Player Rater. Over the last four seasons, Marte has averaged 13 HR and 37 SB with a .292/.349/.448 line despite only once playing more than 135 games (153 in ‘15). He is coming off a career-high 47 SB and has at least 30 in each of the four seasons. Speed is the driving force behind his value and will be the toughest aspect replace. We’ll look at the potential in-house replacements as well as a group of available outfielders at the various sites worth considering.

IN-HOUSE

Austin Meadows, the team’s top prospect, was the first name to cross everyone’s mind when they heard about the suspension. However, GM Neal Huntington has suggested that Meadows isn’t quite ready just yet:

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 Note: Do to a calculation error involving popups, the values initially report were off by a small bit. Everything is corrected now.

Our Dark Overlord continues to install enhancements to FanGraphs. One item which he has sneaked in over the weekend in Swinging Strike (must add to custom dashboard) and Groundball Rates for minor league pitchers (example). With the data now available to query, it’s time to find the league specific baselines and compare some highly touted prospects. Today, I will just concentrate just on the batted ball data.

Anytime new data becomes available, the baselines values are the starting point for an analysis so comparisons can be made. First, here are the overall league ground ball rates from 2016.

There is some funkiness going on in Rookie Ball and the Majors but the general trend is for ground ball rates to drop as the level approached the majors. Generally, the numbers are steady. With the league averages out of the way, I will move onto pitchers.

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The only time that recent history shows me discussing Chase Headley is that time during the offseason where I declared that the New York Yankees should look at Luis Valbuena as a potential upgrade at the position. Obviously, whatever points were made there were moot, as Valbuena went on to sign with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim later on in the winter. Nonetheless, I wasn’t terribly high on Headley coming into the 2017 season, and you’d be hard-pressed to find folks (who aren’t liars) that were or even are.

Regardless of expectations, Headley is off to the best start of any player at the third base position. Yes, the same position that includes Bryant, Donaldson, and Machado, among a handful of other high-end players currently sports Chase Headley as the class of the hot corner. He was the first third sacker to eclipse the 1.0 WAR mark and the early trends have him returning to a level of offensive prominence that we haven’t seen since, like, 2013 when he was still in San Diego.

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Last year around this time I posted an article taking a look at the hitters whose rest of season Depth Charts projections had changed the most, and even after just two plus weeks some players saw significant increases and decreases. I’m following up with the same analysis for this very young 2017 season, so let’s take a look at the players whose projections have moved the most in the early going (based on projected FanGraphs points per game):

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Get out the pom-poms, it’s the first Pod deep league wire of the season! As a reminder, I’ll discuss two players that are owned in 10% or less of CBS leagues.

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Today’s edition will be ever-so-slightly truncated. I took a bad hop to the dome last night, and now I’m working on short rest.

AGENDA

1. Flips
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Contrarian Picks
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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The Roto Riteup team recognizes Hump Day as something worth celebrating.

That’s one way to #ShakeOnIt. pic.twitter.com/pYBetsCFXn

— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) April 19, 2017

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